New highs to cap the year, and some Collective Intelligence on what 2014 will hold
Aside from the December quarter/year end expiration, there was nothing that changed the current trading conditions. Today’s firm economic data helped to nudge the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 to extend their year-end run into record territory. The treasuries closed at 12:00CT and many of the overseas markets were closed or had early closes as well. However, some, um, suit-wearing guys at the New York Stock Exchange rained on our pre-New Year’s Eve festivities by staying open all day … in very light holiday volumes.
Today started with a paltry 35k ESH and 100 SPH traded on Globex, ESH trading range was 1838.75 – 1834.25. Monday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1837.50 – 1833.50 before settling at 1834.70, down 1.8 handles. Todays regular trading hours, pit session gapped 3.5 handles higher to 1838.50 – 1838.20, printed a low of 1837.50 before chugging ahead to a new all-time record high of 1843.50, then back and filling to a new daily low of 1837 and bouncing sharply to new record highs in the face of a very large sell-side closing imbalance that got paired off a bit.
Tyra_S (08:45) ES first 15 min: 1839.25/1837.50… stephen_c (08:49) 2.995 10 year. Srose (08:47) Keep in mind today is both monthly and quarterly rebalancing, so based on stock market outperformance passive funds/pensions have stock for sale and bonds to buy on the close. topnotchtrading (10:22) Stephen, concur. note how fast those bonds broke around 9:45a.m.
Some common thoughts as the hourglass ran out on 2013 …
Barry_S there are some smart guys expecting a pullback the first week. the guys that did capitalize on the 25% move up in 2013 can sell early 2014 to protect profit and not face tax consequences until end of year next year. SnoMan as far as taxes that’s exactly it – write off losses now for 2013 and delay payments to end of 2014 for gains.
william_blount structure from the 1833.5 low, looks as if it needs AT LEAST 1 more high to complete – MINIMUM – reeeaal simple: the chicken and egg game is: WHICH COMES FIRST: 1968 or 1766 cash. 1954, 1968 cash is real doable IF 1769 holds. bears been praying for this since 1762/63 — RONO was dying of cancer at the time and the thin duke was on top of his game that night – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quAvfChhWDE my guess was 1831.5 — I was wrong — the 4th wave was only a 6 handle drop. NEXT YEAR — primary 3 up ends — then a 7-12 % correction, then primary wave five UP. if BLUE 5 on your charts sent yesterday, I expect PRIMARY 3 to end by JAM 15 and have PJ 1/09 in mind — IF green II is the deal, then the drop in January and Feb will be scary but SMALL and 1768 CASH (actual 1767.99) will hold and then primary 3 will end in the SPRING with primary 4 low around JUNE/JULY. so, high of the year = EITHER SPRING or FALL TO EARLY 2015 y’all just got part of NOAH 2A scheduled for this weekend. SAM see the BIG BEAR COUNT on the chart you have that does not view this as primary 3 ending — his PJ high to the 15th is a GAMES OVER count– mine is not. when cycle wave 2 down begins or egads, super cycle 4 — PPT wont matter anymore than they did in 2000-2002 OR 20007-2009. my gut tells me the black swan this time may not be american
Sam_E well the flat 4 gave us this punch up we tag 45.25 and close the year at 41 new year brings 5375 and then she craters down like nobodys business. straight down. long only funds know the drill up here. its buy a farm with running water time when the long only funds get caught one day. the algos will sniff it out and make them pay dearly. i think the more interesting bet will be to predict the high for jan. my opinion is that number will be the it of it of it. or as Prechter or my good friend mr blount would say 5 of 5 of 5. double monthy candles that didnt even get close to standard deviation. only has happened once in history oct nov 07. Deborah my opinion is it doesnt matter where you short nq. the drawdown will be inmaterial to the gain.
stephen_c when 10 year hits 3.25 we top for a 10 to 15 % correction
Albie_S there are economic forces and gauges that will determine the high, and how the gov’t does or does not support a pullback, based on whether they think the economy can handle the shock, I am always wary of the PPT.
Deborah_S s&p close 1849 – January is going to be very positive until 1/24 when it will turn very negative through 1/29. Feb looks difficult, many negative days.
At 2:00 the 1838 area was trading when the MrTopStep Closing Imbalance meter showed very large 99%, $963M to sell and stepped up to 96%, $1.184 Bil by 2:20, but began to get paired off. By 2:40 the MiM was continuing to pair off, now showing a moderate 79%, $541M to sell. The cash close traded 1842.40 area and the closing range was 1846.50 – 1845.70 – a new all-time high 1846.50!
THE SPECIAL SETTLEMENT WAS 1841.10, up 6.4 handles on the day.
Coming events: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
2013: The year in Wuerker cartoons
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