Holiday volume, MiM rules and WB throws us the hint of a bone on year-end S&P price

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mts marketrecap 330 300x207 Holiday volume, MiM rules and WB throws us the hint of a bone on year end S&P price

Holiday volume, MiM rules and WB throws us the hint of a bone on year end S&P price

Collective Intelligence!  Data like this, oh and the MiM, MrTopStep imbalance Meter, [NYSE] closing Imbalance the is all that matters … Follow the money!  Last week bond fund outflows were – $9b. Equity fund inflows were +$6b. If the S&P does indeed close 2013 up +26%, then financial advisors will tell their clients that the previous 12 times the S&P 500 was up +26% in a year, it increased +10% on average the following year.  ***Many clients will have long conversations with their financial advisors. The Thanksgiving holiday is upon us and the markets have settled in and hunkered down in some pretty tight midday ranges on holiday-type volume.
In Asia, 7 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp. -0.14%, Hang Seng -0.01%, Nikkei -0.67%. In Europe 8 out of 11 markets were trading lower: DAX +0.01% and FTSE -0.45%.  Today started with 157k ESZ and 500 SPZ traded on Globex, ESZ trading range was 1705.75 – 1701.00. Monday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1798.70 – 1706.50 before settling at 1802.40, up 1.2 handles.  The regular trading hours opened 1802.00 – 1802.80, traded down to 1799.20 before the grind continued its upward trend – printing a new high in the final hour of trade, 1807.30.

Traditional headlines like these had no impact on the trade: It is all about the money – follow the money!
iceChat (08:26) …..(BN) *EL-ERIAN SAYS FED TO START TAPER IN NEXT 6 TO 12 MONTHS
mts2 (08:27) talk of dovish think tank report on ECB…talk that ECB would be ready to use negative rates if there is a threat of deflation
iceChat (08:53)  MNI: NEWS: ECB SOURCES: NO CONSENSUS NOW FOR MORE ACTION AT DEC MEETING-SOURCES: IF EMU ECON, INFLATION DON’T RESPOND, WILL DO ‘MORE.’
iceChat (09:00)  miss … 70.4 vs exp 72.9 Consumer Confidence weakest since April
Richmond Fed 13 vs 4 exp.

David_F  Wednesday – Friday Thanksgiving week shows strong upside tendencies:
http://bit.ly/1ejTrya
December seasonality strong: http://bit.ly/18mgwSp

william_blount 11/25/13: if we go into silly season you all are going to be real surprised where the YEAR END price is going to be  -  as long as we hold 1765 cash through Friday.  mts2 (08:18) YEAR END price is going to be? The suspense is killing me … throw us bone… best guess in round numbahs? william_blount (08:20) got to clear out the 1829, then some minor crap at … ***Today william_blount (08:20) 1836– little bigger deal 1857/58, then another big deal at 1868.  We will continue to hold out William’s year end objective, but it is higher than the levels given here…

Events: Will any of this matter? China Oct. industrial profits tonight and tomorrow morning US durable goods and PCE for Oct. 7:30CT, Michigan Confidence for Nov.  8:55 and new home sales for Oct.  9:00CT. The S&P was trading in the 1806 area when the … iceChat (14:00) MrTopStep MiM Closing Imbalance showing 70%, $294M to sell side followed by iceChat (14:20) MiM showing 65%, $334M for sale, at 2:50 showed $758M to sell while the SPZ  traded 1803 area. The MSCI rebalance came out – totaling $2.6b to sell -  and the futures sold off to 1801.50 area, almost 6 handles from the high. The cash close traded 1801.70 before the futures settled at 1802.00, down 0.4 handle on the day.

Warning, open at your own risk!  This is a bit vulgar, but it is pretty funny – yeah, it’s that algo thing  http://freakngenius.com/v/K2um6

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