Sun, Feb 26, 2012, 10:35 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Home prices drop, consumers turn gloomier

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By Leah Schnurr

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices fell more steeply than expected in November, and consumers turned less optimistic in January, highlighting the hurdles still facing the bumpy economic recovery.

After accelerating at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years at the end of 2011, the U.S. economy is expected slow in early 2012.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, released on Tuesday, declined 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger drop than the 0.5 percent economists expected.

The decrease added on to the 0.7 percent decline in October from September.

Separately, an index of consumer attitudes fell to 61.1 in January from 64.8 the month before, as Americans turned gloomy about the job market and income prospects, said the Conference Board, representing private companies.

The data frustrated expectations for an increase after sharp gains in consumer confidence in November and December.

"We are braced for a more bumpy picture over the next few months. A lot of expectations probably ran away or got a little too lofty coming into the end of the year," said Sean Incremona, economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

"We are still in a very modest recovery, and we do see consumption slowing this quarter, and data like this supports that picture."

Some improving housing data in late 2011 had raised hopes the recovery was finding its footing. But weaker numbers this month have underscored how lengthy the healing process will be.

"I'm absolutely of the opinion we've bottomed out. The debate now is whether the recovery begins, and I'm not sure that recovery is earnestly underway," said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management in Toronto.

"The reality is the housing market is so far from normal that it will take years to get back to its normal state. Similarly it will take a while before it really is contributing properly to economic growth."

U.S. housing prices have plunged by about a third from their peak before the financial crisis, and a combination of high unemployment, tight mortgage lending conditions and more foreclosures in the pipeline are holding back a recovery.

Would-be homeowners have also shied away and data from the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed the homeownership rate dipped in the fourth quarter to 66.0 percent from 66.3 percent.

Aside from the second quarter of 2011 when the rate was at 65.9 percent, homeownership is at its lowest level since the second quarter of 1998.

The day's disappointing data took Wall Street lower, undermining earlier optimism over a possible Greek debt deal.

Also weighing on the market was a report that showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew more slowly than expected in January - the index fell to 60.2 compared with a forecast of 63 - hurt by a weaker labor market.

A wider reading of the U.S. factory sector is due on Wednesday with the release of the Institute for Supply Management national manufacturing survey.

Last week, the Federal Reserve showed the extent of its concern about the uncertain U.S. economic recovery by signaling it would keep interest rates near zero for nearly three more years. That gloomy assessment was echoed on Tuesday by a Congressional Budget Office report that saw U.S. unemployment above 8 percent this year and in 2013.

Companies are feeling the pinch too. Growth expectations for

first-quarter earnings are declining sharply, due to worries about slowing growth and weak revenue trends at major U.S. firms, according to Thomson Reuters data.

A report released on Monday showed spending was flat in December as Americans focused more on saving.

Once a key pillar of the U.S. economy, Americans have taken a more frugal tack as many struggle with hefty debt burdens.

"With the global economy slowing and domestic fiscal policy a drag on growth, the wellbeing of the U.S. consumer is crucial to the recovery," Alistair Bentley, economist at TD Bank Group, wrote in a note.

"Today's number, coupled with yesterday's disappointing personal spending data, offers a reminder that underlying demand is still too soft to absorb the economy's excess slack."

On a seasonally adjusted basis, 17 of 20 cities racked up monthly home price declines, and average national prices were around levels seen in mid-2003, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

Prices in the 20 cities also steepened their year-over-year decline, falling 3.7 percent compared to a 3.4 percent decline in October.

Last week, the Obama administration took steps to head off a new foreclosure crisis but critics and even some supporters said it was unlikely to prove much more successful than other government programs to date.

Some Federal Reserve officials have said the central bank should consider buying more mortgage-backed securities to help boost the struggling sector, though some economists question how effective that would be with borrowing costs already so low.

(Additional reporting by Chris Reese; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

 
  • Retired at 29  •  25 days ago
    When we purchased our house 13 years ago, we needed a house to live in and we had a budget to work within. We could afford $xxx per month to put a roof over our heads. It was never about second or third mortgages, it was never about flipping in two years, it was simply about putting a roof over our heads. Today, regardless of the current market value, our home continues to function just as the day we purchased it. No, today it is not likely that I could run out and get a second to fund an extravagant vacation or buy a new Lexus, but then again, we never thought that was what a home was for in the first place.
  • James  •  New York, New York  •  26 days ago
    Somehow I don't picture someone flipping burgers at McDonalds saying to another coworker,
    "I'll be closing on my house next week" .......
  • bill  •  25 days ago
    I just received my new home owners policy yesterday it went up $150 so i called my agent and asked why the increase because my home went down in value not up and I never had a claim in 20 years. He said because fuel and constuction materials went way up in price it would cause more to rebuild my home then it,s market value is worth. Well there goes the AMERICAN DREAM it,s now the OPEC dream why buy a home if it cost more to build then it,s worth.
  • Mr. Tony  •  Kennesaw, Georgia  •  26 days ago
    You can't buy a house unless you have a job. When supply exceeds demand prices drop. Supply will not drop until all the foreclosures and short sales are taken care of. People will not buy houses unless the are sure of their job situation. It's that simple. I have no PHD in Economics I just live in the real world.
  • Ken  •  26 days ago
    And the banks are holding back millions of houses from the market in hopes of keeping prices higher. There's more downside folks.
  • moviegeek  •  Sacramento, California  •  25 days ago
    It's no mystery, high unemployment and nobody can afford 20% down these days.
  • tony  •  26 days ago
    Not according to my county tax assessor. They keep raising our appraised values to keep the coffers filled up. What a scam.
  • Kathleen  •  25 days ago
    We need jobs, simple as that.
  • archie1338  •  Fort Worth, Texas  •  25 days ago
    Younger people see a house as deadweight, and I'm one of them. The housing bubble has turned a lot of people off of owning a home and for good reason. The days of buying a house and working at a job down the street for 35 years until you retire are long gone. There simply is no stability in the workforce. You could buy a house and the next week get a pink slip at no fault of your own. Or you could get a job and be asked to transfer half way across the country. A house is a giant anchor on your financial well-being plain and simple. When people started treating housing as an investment other than a place to live, that's when we were doomed.

    Housing won't make a recovery for at least one decade. I'd put money on it being two decades. Prices are so high compared to what wages can support anyone with a brain can see that prices have to come down or wages have to go up. We all know that the latter isn't happening.
  • ALL4ONE  •  25 days ago
    Geez, if Yahoo is letting this story out about how bad it is, imagine how bad it really is!
  • JoeK  •  Eugene, Oregon  •  26 days ago
    Is this one of the UNEXPECTED downward revision we are used to see? Where is the economic uptick the media has been pushing.
  • Rick Friedl  •  Los Angeles, California  •  26 days ago
    And yet, they are still building new homes....why?
  • el fuego  •  25 days ago
    Wait until the shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that the banks are hiding hits the market. Even gloomier times then.
  • Mean Dean  •  Raleigh, North Carolina  •  25 days ago
    I feel pity for american sheeple who let media think for them.

    I think Bernie Madoff said that'
  • RonR  •  26 days ago
    Are you better off than you were four years ago?
  • Charlie  •  Sioux Falls, South Dakota  •  25 days ago
    Let's see. Two college degrees and I am currently make 18k less a year than I was three ago. Haven't had a raise in 3 years. Actually took a cut in pay twice with the "downsizing" of companies. I am currently making the same amount I made in 2001. Sad, part, I am lucky and feel fortunate to have a job. And they wonder why the american people are pulling back on everything.. HMMM... Has the cost of living gone back to the same as it was in 2001... HHHHMMMM. Just doesn't get you too excited about our economy does it.
  • robk  •  Stamford, Connecticut  •  25 days ago
    I'm afraid there will be no recovery for the housing situation in this country. We just don't have the earning capacity to pay off 3 mortgages - college (mortgage #1), a house (mortgage #2)and medical expenses (mortgage #3).
  • Patriot Alice  •  25 days ago
    Now we can only lower taxes and cut expenses, but no one wants to do it, because pain is involved...
  • Brian  •  Doylestown, Pennsylvania  •  25 days ago
    Home prices will continue to fall. There is just no interest at this point in time for the mass market to want to buy, even if interest is at zero precent. The fear is people will be locked into somthing they may not be able to get out of down the road if things continue to not get better. Even with rent prices going up they feel more secure in NOT buying a home. How do you change a trend like this? It is human nature and people do change their minds at some point. And when they do watch out. Prices could sky rocket again and bidding wars start up to buy homes. The big question is when? My educated guess is by 2015. So the smart money is on getting the best deal you can now. Just sit and wait. If you buy now and don't want to own long term, just wait it out and you will be glad you did.
  • DavidJ  •  25 days ago
    Consumers losing confidence ?!?

    Nah! What could possibly cause that?
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