Despite the recent breakneck clip of home appreciation in some parts of the country, national home prices are on pace to rise just 3 percent to 5 percent annually, according to a new report by real estate analytics firm Clear Capital.
The report finds that national market has finally recovered from housing bust, with home prices increasing within 2 percent of their inflation-adjusted long-run average levels. That doesn’t mean prices are anywhere near their peaks at the height of the bubble; at the current pace of appreciation, they won’t reach those levels until 2021.
“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as a point of reference, and back to current trends an forecasts,” Alex Villacorta, Clear Capital vice president of research and analytics said in a statement.
“While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms.”
In real terms, inflation-adjusted home prices are below their 2003 levels in 92 percent of markets, and half of markets are still below their 2000 levels. Honolulu is the only city in the top 50 markets to be near its peak level.
Nationally, home prices grew 10.8 percent last year, a rate expected to moderate substantially in the next few years.
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