Home Values in Dozens of U.S. Housing Markets will not Fully Recover Until 2017 or Later

Recovery still in middle innings, even almost three years after it began; Pace of home value appreciation continues to fall as market normalizes, according to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports
- U.S. home values climbed 6.3 percent year-over year in the second quarter, to a Zillow® Home Value Index of $174,200.
- Rents rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, but fell 0.3 percent from the first quarter.
- Home values in 50 of the country's 100 largest metro areas will take three years or more to reach pre-recession peak levels again.

PR Newswire

SEATTLE, July 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Home values in half of the nation's 100 largest metro areas will not reach their pre-recession peak levels again for another three-plus years, according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reportsi, proof that the recovery is still very much in its middle stages.

Nationally, home values remain 11.3 percent below their 2007 peak. Looking ahead, U.S. home values are expected to rise another 4.2 percent through the second quarter of 2015, according to the Zillow Home Value Forecastii. It will take 2.7 years for national home values to re-achieve their pre-recession levels, assuming a steady rate of appreciation at the forecasted level.

Locally, in 50 of the nation's 100 largest metro markets, it will take three years or more for home values to reach prior peaks. Notable large metros where full recovery in home values will take longer than a decade include Minneapolis (14.5 years), Kansas City (12.5 years) and Chicago (11.7 years).

"In dozens of markets, homeowners that bought at the peak of the market in 2006 or 2007 will have to wait until 2017 or later to get back to the breakeven point on their home, a lost decade in which they will have built up no home equity. This is reflected in stubbornly high negative equity and effective negative equity rates, with more than a third of Americans with a mortgage lacking enough equity to realistically list their home for sale and buy another," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "But there is a silver lining as we navigate these tricky middle innings of the recovery. Because home values remain so far below their peak levels in so many areas, it is still possible for buyers to find bargains. This will be critical to maintaining home affordability over the coming years, especially as mortgage interest rates rise."

U.S. home values climbed 6.3 percent year-over-year in the second quarter to a Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)iii of $174,200, the slowest annual pace of appreciation recorded so far this year and a sign that the market is returning to more normal levels. In a more normal market, home values appreciate at roughly 3 percent per year. Home values nationwide were up 1 percent compared to the first quarter and 0.5 percent from May.

Nationally, rents rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, to a Zillow Rent Indexiv of $1,310 but fell 0.3 percent compared to the first quarter. The quarterly decline was the largest recorded since Zillow first began publishing the Zillow Rent Index in late 2010. U.S. rents were flat month-over-month.

Metropolitan Area

 Q2 2014 ZHVI

YoY % Change

Current % Fall From Peak ZHVI v

Q2 2014-Q2 2015 Forecasted % Change in Home Values

Years until Home Values are Back to Peak (at Current Forecast)

United States

$  174,200

6.3%

-11.3%

4.2%

2.7 (Q1 2017)

New York/Northern New Jersey

$  377,200

6.3%

-16.4%

3.4%

4.9 (Q2 2019)

Los Angeles, CA

$  539,800

15.0%

-12.1%

8.7%

1.4 (Q4 2015)

Chicago, IL

$  184,800

8.1%

-24.4%

2.1%

11.7 (Q1 2026)

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

$  145,500

6.3%

-2.2%

4.4%

0.5 (Q4 2014)

Philadelphia, PA

$  197,600

3.8%

-14.7%

2.8%

5.3 (Q4 2019)

Houston, TX

$  145,700

11.9%

-1.6%

2.5%

0.6 (Q1 2015)

Washington, DC

$  356,500

7.6%

-17.4%

2.4%

7.4 (Q4 2021)

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

$  200,200

17.7%

-35.9%

6.1%

5.8 (Q2 2019)

Atlanta, GA

$  149,000

18.0%

-14.7%

9.1%

1.6 (Q1 2016)

Boston, MA

$  365,100

8.6%

-5.1%

2.9%

1.7 (Q1 2016)

San Francisco, CA

$  692,100

14.3%

-2.2%

6.8%

0.3 (Q4 2014)

Detroit, MI

$  113,100

19.6%

-28.3%

6.6%

4.3 (Q4 2018)

Riverside, CA

$  279,700

21.4%

-30.5%

15.1%

2.0 (Q2 2016)

Phoenix, AZ

$  199,000

8.4%

-27.8%

6.3%

4.4 (Q4 2018)

Seattle, WA

$  337,000

12.4%

-11.1%

8.3%

1.3 (Q4 2015)

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN

$  204,600

7.6%

-15.2%

1.0%

14.5 (Q4 2028)

San Diego, CA

$  474,300

13.2%

-11.9%

7.2%

1.7 (Q1 2016)

St. Louis, MO

$  131,700

-0.5%

-16.9%

1.7%

9.9 (Q2 2024)

Tampa, FL

$  144,800

15.9%

-33.1%

6.9%

4.8 (Q2 2019)

Baltimore, MD

$  239,000

3.2%

-17.4%

1.8%

9.6 (Q1 2024)

Denver, CO

$  256,800

8.9%

0.0%

1.8%

0 (Currently at peak)

Pittsburgh, PA

$  123,300

8.8%

0.0%

5.2%

0 (Currently at peak)

Portland, OR

$  274,700

10.3%

-6.0%

4.6%

1.3 (Q4 2015)

Sacramento, CA

$  319,700

13.3%

-27.7%

7.4%

3.7 (Q1 2018)

San Antonio, TX

$  143,000

6.6%

-3.8%

4.0%

0.9 (Q2 2015)

Orlando, FL

$  163,300

14.8%

-37.9%

7.2%

5.3 (Q4 2019)

Cincinnati, OH

$  133,500

3.7%

-6.9%

2.4%

2.9 (Q2 2017)

Cleveland, OH

$  120,200

4.0%

-16.0%

2.4%

6.6 (Q1 2021)

Kansas City, MO

$  138,900

-3.6%

-12.6%

1.0%

12.5 (Q4 2026)

Las Vegas, NV

$  182,500

22.6%

-40.3%

8.5%

4.8 (Q2 2019)

San Jose, CA

$  815,000

15.0%

0.0%

8.6%

0 (Currently at peak)

Columbus, OH

$  144,000

9.8%

-2.3%

2.5%

0.9 (Q2 2015)

Charlotte, NC

$  155,200

7.5%

-3.8%

2.8%

1.4 (Q4 2015)

Indianapolis, IN

$  131,700

-0.7%

-10.8%

1.8%

5.9 (Q2 2020)

Austin, TX

$  211,700

12.2%

0.0%

2.5%

0 (Currently at peak)

 

About Zillow:
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z) operates the largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and over time. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage MarketplaceZillow Rentals, Zillow Digs®, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Agentfolio®, Mortech®, HotPads™,  StreetEasy® and Retsly™. The company is headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow.com, Zillow, Zestimate, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse Solutions, StreetEasy, Agentfolio and Digs are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. HotPads and Retsly are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

i The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/local-info/ and www.zillow.com/research/data.

ii The Zillow Home Value Forecast uses data from past home value trends and current market conditions, including leading indicators like home sales, months of housing inventory supply and unemployment, to predict home values over the next 12 months for the nation and for more than 250 markets across the country.

iii The Zillow Home Value Index is the median estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.

iv The Zillow Rent Index is the median Rent Zestimate® (estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic area on a given day, and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow's database, regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent. It is expressed in dollars.

v Metro areas with 0% in this column are areas where home values have already reached or exceeded pre-recession peak levels.

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