HONG KONG, Feb. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Hong Kong has remained mostly untouched by mainland China's unfolding liquidity crisis, but has still been exposed to the fallout from the disruption in economic activity and investment elsewhere in mainland China, finds Q4 2013 data for ACCA's (The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA's Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS)( http://www.accaglobal.com/content/dam/acca/global/PDF-technical/global-economy/tech-ms-gec20.pdf ).
The data shows that 54% of finance professionals in Hong Kong believed that economic conditions were getting better or about to do so, compared to 39% saying they were deteriorating or stagnating.
Manos Schizas, Senior Economic Analyst at ACCA, explains: "Previous editions of the GECS have closely observed the development of mainland China's liquidity crunch, which clearly has implications for Hong Kong and the global economy. For the first time, cash flow and demand conditions deteriorated sharply in the mainland in late 2013, suggesting that the crunch must be making its way into the real economy."
Jane Cheng, head of ACCA Hong Kong, adds: "Access to growth capital returned to a broadly upward trajectory in Hong Kong, after having tightened significantly earlier in the year. However, business and investment opportunities remained flat in the second half of 2013. Meanwhile, business and investment opportunities in mainland China have rebounded in late 2013, and despite rising pressures on cashflow, access to growth capital is stabilising."
The Global Picture
GECS, now in its fifth year, revealed that at the global level, finance professionals had more faith in the strength of the wider economic recovery in Q4 2013 than at any time over the last five years: 55% believed conditions were improving or about to do so, up from 53% in the third quarter of 2013, while only 42% felt that economic conditions were deteriorating or stagnating, down from 43% in the previous quarter.
When it came to their own organisations, however, finance professionals' confidence may have fallen marginally in the last quarter of 2013. About 30% reported confidence gains, up from 28% previously, but 35% reported losses, up from 32% in the third quarter. Despite this, the Q4 2013 results still represent the second-strongest year-on-year confidence gains since mid-2010.
Manos Schizas concludes: "The Q4 2013 edition of the GECS marks the survey's five-year anniversary, and coincides with some of the strongest readings yet across our economic indicators. However it also paints a picture of an unbalanced recovery in which emerging markets are caught in the turmoil of the Taper, the US is still reeling from the ripples of the Federal Government Shutdown and many major markets are relying on transient factors for growth."
Notes to Editors
This is the 20th edition of GECS, the largest regular economic survey of accountants in the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. Its main indices are good predictors of GDP growth in the OECD countries and daily trend deviations correlate well with the VIX or 'fear' index, which measures expected stock price volatility.
ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants. We aim to offer business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. As the first global accountancy body entering into China, ACCA now has over 23,000 members and 48,000 students, with 8 offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Hong Kong SAR, and Macau SAR.
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About IMA(R) (Institute of Management Accountants)
IMA(R), the association of accountants and financial professionals in business, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA(R) (Certified Management Accountant) program, continuing education, networking, and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 65,000 members in 120 countries and 200 local chapter communities. IMA provides localized services through its offices in Montvale, N.J., USA; Zurich, Switzerland; Dubai, UAE; and Beijing, China. For more information about IMA, please visit www.imanet.org
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