Tropical Storm Dorian has officially formed out in the open Atlantic Ocean. The 2013 hurricane season has been largely without incident so far, and this storm is actually so far out that the Caribbean islands do not even look like they will see the storm until Sunday, assuming that the cone path from the National Hurricane Center holds up. Tropical Storm Dorian, only the fourth to be named so far for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is still much closer to the western side of Africa than to the United States and the Caribbean.
Another issue to see, which of course can change, is that the current projections show Dorian remaining a tropical storm rather than progressing to a hurricane up through next Monday. What happens after that is still up for grabs. The current path looks to be west by northwest.
It was only back in May that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a strong 2013 hurricane season. As the hurricane season is not even two months old now, that remains to be seen. Its forecasts were as follows:
- A 70% chance of there being 13 to 20 named storms in the six-month period of hurricane season (39 mph or higher).
- Seven to 11 storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, broken down as three to six major hurricanes ranging in the Category 3, 4 or 5, which implies winds of 111 mph or higher.
- NOAA also said that the seasonal average has been 12 named storms in total, with six of those being hurricanes, and three of the hurricanes being major ones.
Below is the current NOAA Hurricane Center projected cone path through next Monday morning. Our only word of caution is that the cone paths and the strength or weakness of these storms often turn out to be far different from the original projections.