IDC has a new report predicting Windows Phone makes big smartphone market share gains.
According to the report, Windows will be at 11.4 percent of the market in four years. Apple, meanwhile, will pick up 0.3 percent to reach 19.1 percent in the next four years. Android will fall from 68.3 percent to 63.8 percent, according to IDC.
Maybe IDC is right and these exact numbers and trends will play out over the next four years.
More likely, IDC is wrong, and this will not happen.
We don't want to pick on IDC, because making predictions is tough. Especially four years out. (Heck, some of us get our predictions wrong when they're just a few months away.)
But, IDC is a big, respected organization so people are going to talk about this prediction.
Here's why you can safely ignore it: Last year IDC said Windows Phone was going to beat iOS in 2015 and take 20.9 percent of the market.
So, in one year's time it's already changed its mind! What will IDC predict next year? Who knows!
There's another reason you can ignore this prediction: Technology changes quickly. By 2016 we could all be hooked up to Google Glasses (not likely) or Apple could be making a cheap iPhone that's sold around the world (more likely).
Not to mention, no one has bought Windows Phone phones for the last three years. What's going to change in the next four years?
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