Mon, May 28, 2012, 1:40 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

After IPO, Facebook will face new profit pressures

After IPO, Facebook will face pressure to crank up revenue; $4.39 per user won't be enough

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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- For all the huge numbers in Facebook's IPO papers, a surprisingly small figure stands out: $4.39, the amount the site generated per user last year.

It's one of the company's major challenges because the total is paltry compared with competing Internet companies. Google makes more than $30 a year from each registered user. Even struggling Yahoo and AOL make $7 and $10, respectively.

Once Facebook goes public, Wall Street will surely demand more. That means the social network will almost certainly have to attract a lot more users or be more aggressive with its advertising, perhaps by mining personal data even more than it does now.

But can Facebook do all that without spoiling the user experience?

The company may have a tough time increasing the number of ads on a site that has become primarily a home for online conversations.

"It's a communications tool. Can you imagine what a turn-off it would be if we were talking on the phone and AT&T tried to play an ad in the middle of our conversation?" said University of Notre Dame finance professor Tim Loughran, who studies IPOs.

Facebook stock probably won't begin trading until at least May, but analysts already believe the company will try to sell shares at a price that will give it a market value of at least $100 billion — more than Yahoo, AOL and Hewlett Packard Co. combined.

To justify a valuation like that, Facebook will need to maximize its revenue to get closer to Google, one of its biggest rivals. Google's revenue of nearly $38 billion last year translated into about $35 per registered user.

Facebook recorded $3.7 billion in revenue last year.

The question is whether it can bring in more money without alienating the 845 million users who have become accustomed to hanging out with friends and family on the social network without an onslaught of ads.

Part of that online environment has been by design. Facebook co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg wanted to get as many as people as possible to create profiles on the website before figuring out the best ways to profit from all the information about their interests and connections.

In theory, those insights should enable Facebook to target ads to people most likely to be interested in certain products or services. That should appeal to marketers, giving the site enough leverage to charge more for its ads than other sites. If the ads work, Facebook should easily be able to increase revenue per user to $10 to $12 annually, said Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter.

Before Google went public, it also faced questions about its ability to make money from selling ads next to search results, in emails and within videos. Evidently most users don't mind because Google's annual revenue is now about 25 times higher than in 2003.

Advertising isn't the only way Facebook can make money. It charges a commission for some of the sales of games and other services on its website. Although advertising accounted for 85 percent of Facebook's revenue last year, that was less than at Google, where ads accounted for 96 percent of revenue.

Most of Facebook's non-advertising revenue comes from commissions paid by Zynga Inc., the maker of such popular Web games as CityVille and Words With Friends. In its IPO papers, Facebook says it may try to increase its revenue by introducing fees for other e-commerce features on its website.

Facebook, which is based in Menlo Park, Calif., easily could offer sales of movies, music, even houses and cars. But believing it can expand into those markets requires a huge leap of faith, said Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst.

"It's like saying because Chipotle has been good at selling burritos in certain urban markets in the U.S., it should be able to make more money selling Chinese food in France," he said.

Facebook says roughly half its audience — about 425 million people — now gets access to its service on smartphones, tablet computers and other mobile devices. But the site acknowledges it hasn't figured out the best way to make money from mobile users.

The application-driven systems on mobile devices pose another threat because they could allow Zynga and other services to offer their own mobile apps to bypass Facebook and connect directly with users.

The rise of mobile devices also opens up an opportunity for Google to expand the audience of Plus, its social networking alternative to Facebook. Although it hasn't done so yet, Google could make Plus part of the Android operating system that runs 250 million smartphones and tablets.

Zuckerberg, Facebook's controlling shareholder as well as its leader, is promising to put users' interests ahead of the company's financial interests.

"Simply put: We don't build services to make money; we make money to build better services," Zuckerberg wrote in a letter included in Wednesday's IPO filing. "These days, I think more and more people want to use services from companies that believe in something beyond simply maximizing profits."

___

AP Technology Writer Barbara Ortutay in New York contributed to this report.

 
  • Hey You  •  Macon, Georgia  •  3 months ago
    I'm one of the Facebook users that generated $0.0 and intend to stay that way.
    • 4thplaceismine 3 months ago
      well, we generate $ for them indirectly, but yeah, $0 actively.
    • Jb 3 months ago
      I'll never give em even 1 measly dollar.
    • Howard 3 months ago
      Facebook is not making money by selling you stuffs. They are making money by selling YOUR stuffs (like your personal info and your attention) to marketing companies. Trust me. If you are active on Facebook, they have made money off you.
  • John  •  Santa Rosa, California  •  3 months ago
    Facebook ... the definition of prostituting friends and family without getting paid
  • Ellen H  •  3 months ago
    Hello my daughter Marie. Yes, I just took a dump. See you tomorrow,,,,,,,,Ohhhhh whathjkhdkhkjhdjas...I thought this was facebook!
  • john  •  3 months ago
    I dev apps and websites and believe it or not I have CHOSEN not to be on Facebook.
    Weird huh?....Yeah, you can actually live without it.
    ( I saw how much time many of my friends were spending on the site and really not accomplishing anything....except being social butterflies)
    • EM 3 months ago
      dito.
    • Nikki C 3 months ago
      I totally agree. People don't get anything done on facebook. and yes life can happen without facebook.
  • Lucky 007  •  Las Vegas, Nevada  •  3 months ago
    Anybody who thinks Facebook is going to be any different than AOL once was, or as valuable as Yahoo.... is a financial idiot. More than 50% of their "users" are duplicate accounts. I had a facebook "profile" establish about 4 years ago in order to look at someone else's profile. I haven't used it since. It's an aberration. If you buy the stock, get out before the real story unfolds.
    • mike 3 months ago
      you are an idiot...just because you are a facebook "creeper" with multiple accounts doesn't mean that EVERY OTHER user is as well...don't be ignorent and know the facts...do you even know what the projecte p/e is? do you know how many shares are going to be issued? do you konw how they are going to leverage their capital to turn more income? again...know what you are talking about..
  • I Know Better  •  3 months ago
    I am on Facebook, but really don't use it very much. I don't like it, prefer just plain old email.
    • spiderlegs 3 months ago
      HELLO!! is anybody home up stairs!!!!!! if you dont like it!, why are you on it???
  • Ron in NC  •  3 months ago
    Wife and I don't use Facebook so I guess that classifies us as electronically challenged............but I predict that as this treasure trove of private information grows so will the I.D. thieves..............good luck all.
  • Anonymous  •  3 months ago
    These FB clowns are laughing all the way to the bank. All the fools that will invest in them will just have their money funneled right into making them billionaires! What a country!!!
  • 4thplaceismine  •  3 months ago
    i hope anyone who owns fb stock pre-ipo sells their shares asap, driving the price down quickly; that should keep the value closer to where it should be, not what speculators want it to be.
  • Zuck Likes CISPA  •  3 months ago
    If Zuck really believes what he is shoveling around this grand hippie mission that Facebook has to somehow magically make the world more open (the increased goofing off at work caused by FB notwithstanding), then it was foolish to take the company public. Once a company goes public, it is thenceforth managed for shareholder value -- and nothing else. It is a major shift in purpose.

    But then maybe the IPO is completely out of Zuck's hands. VC's don't invest unless they eventually get to sell the company to the public.
  • Tyler  •  University, Mississippi  •  3 months ago
    if people actually buy this festering dog turd of a stock, i suppose it will not shock me, but it will definitely reaffirm my belieft that most americans are idiots. good luck to all the holders of this junk when the fad dies off in a couple of years. anyone remember america online or hyper color shirts - facebook's tombstone is at the factory.
  • John Smith  •  3 months ago
    I'm so tired of all the Facebook hype. And what product or service of value does Facebook produce? Answer, nothing. It's emblematic of our economic problem - pushing around fiat nonsense on the internet is not an economy!
  • srb  •  3 months ago
    Pleaseee, it's not about "the amount the site generated per user last year" but rather it's about the amount it's going to make the MMs for this IPO.
    When social-networking is your hottest Industry, you know your country is in decline. Think Steve Jobs and now think "Z-man the Twerp."
    "Let's round up these little doggies, and sell them hypesicles."
  • Lulu in Boston  •  Needham, Massachusetts  •  3 months ago
    Next will be a ... arsebook!

    f has no invention or barrier to entry, ergo no value. Get used to this headline, "Facebook misses street's estimate ... again."
  • Mike  •  3 months ago
    I P O - When a firm trades control in exchange for money. Research also Carl Karcher, founder and CEO of the Carl's Jr. (and now Green Burrito & Hardee's) Hamburger Chain, who was ousted by the board of directors from his own company for what was blasphemed as a poor idea, a company he began as a single cart hot dog stand . Five years later, the same idea was approved and implemented without him... the idea involved putting two restaurant chains into the same building, now Carl's Jr. and The Green Burrito, all within one building...
  • Yahoo User  •  3 months ago
    Wall St. pressure will force Facebook to grow up real fast. Gone are the days of being able to operate the company under their pre-IPO idealistic ways. The demand for more profit from Wall St. each quarter will likely result in Facebook having to force ads down the throats of their users in ways that their users will find repulsive. Say goodbye to the Facebook we know today.
  • Ellen H  •  3 months ago
    Keep click on "yes, I accept these rules" Are you people that dumb?
  • Spiffster  •  Mt Laurel, New Jersey  •  3 months ago
    I am worth $0.00 to Facebook. Like the "Don't Click the Ads" Facebook page i just created and send them a message! We won't be exploited!
  • Libertine  •  Texarkana, Texas  •  3 months ago
    Shut down FaceBook - Post on your wall to all your friends suggesting they close their accounts, then close yours.
    This is another, non manufacturing, fracturing, Tech. bubble stock that will product nothing in terms of real goods, make a few insiders very wealthy, then when it pops, you and I get stuck paying it back by the market trying to balance the loss with higher interest rates and cost increases for real goods. Stop taking the soma. Wake up. Cancel your Facebook account today.
  • DaKiwi  •  Los Angeles, California  •  3 months ago
    Jobs and Gates are brilliant men, Jobs by far and away out ranks any other human that has changed and is changing how we communicate...... "Zuckerberg"....Good Lord is truly a nothing, say what you want to about my post but facebook is a worthless peice of pooh, just email on steriods....Thats all. In the past 8 years what has FB truly developed, what have they truly accomplished, the sum total of jack #$%$ , Opp's sorry I lost myself, Farmville now there is a world changer there folks. When I caught an employee playing farmville when he should have been working I could not believe just how pathetic this Facebook fenom was........Why O Why do people bye into such lame pointless pooh.
 
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