UPDATE 2-Iraq says can export extra 1 million bpd next year


(Corrects consultancy para 7)

By Peg Mackey and Alex Lawler

VIENNA, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Iraq is planning to lift oiloutput by more than a million barrels a day to over 4 millionbpd in 2014, in what would be the country's biggest oil supplyincrease since the fall of Saddam Hussein a decade ago.

Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said Iraq planned to liftexports to 3.4 million barrels daily, including 400,000 bpd fromthe semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government (KRG).

With domestic consumption running at about 700,000 bpd thatwould take total Iraqi supply above 4 million bpd, up from justbelow 3 million bpd now.

That scale of production increase would raise the pressureon others in OPEC, chiefly Saudi Arabia, to curb supply toprevent oil prices falling.

But industry experts and oil company executives working onIraqi oilfield development say a 4 million bpd output targetlooks very unlikely to be achieved next year.

They expect Iraq to be able to manage only moderate outputgrowth next year because of infrastructure constraints andsecurity issues.

"Those Iraqi estimates are over optimistic. I don't thinktheir production can hit that," said Cuneyt Kazokoglu of energyconsultancy FGE. "Neither can KRG exports hit 400,000 bpd. Ifthey really push it perhaps they could do 300,000 bpd."

Luaibi said Baghdad is also close to agreeing lowerproduction targets for peak output at the giant southernoilfields of Rumaila, operated by BP, West Qurna-1, runby Exxon Mobil and Majnoon - where Royal Dutch Shell is in charge.

The new production targets are achievable and mean the oilcompanies won't be penalised for not reaching unrealistictargets.

Luaibi said the new target for Rumaila would be around 2.1million bpd, versus an original 2.85 million bpd; West Qurna-1would be around 1.6 million to 1.8 million bpd versus anoriginal 2.825 million bpd and Majnoon would be around 1 millionto 1.2 million bpd versus an original 1.8 million bpd.

(additional reporting Humeyra Pamuk, editing Richard Mably)

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