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"It would be a mess" if the Supreme Court guts Obamacare

In what is becoming an annual tradition, the Affordable Care Act is at risk again. This time, the Supreme Court is considering the case of King v. Burwell, a lawsuit that could end subsidized health care in 34 states.

The suit aims to determine who is eligible to receive health care subsidies outlined within the Affordable Care Act.

The ACA outlines two main provisions to bring health care to all Americans: the first is the individual mandate, which requires Americans to have health insurance or pay a fine, and the second are the subsidies that make health care more affordable. In King v. Burwell, the plaintiffs-- David King and three other Virginia residents-- argue that states that have opted not to build exchanges are not eligible for these subsidies.

A win for King would reduce federal tax subsidies by $29 billion in 2016, according to research by the Urban Institute. The research found there would be 8.2 million uninsured Americans and insurance premiums for those who were still covered by the ACA could increase by an average of 35%.

“You’ve got to be worried, you’ve got to be concerned,” says Congressman Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). “[Americans] should be very concerned that they may see the government getting rid of the subsidies, that would jack up the price for them and create a further squeeze on the middle class.”

If the Supreme Court does side with the plaintiff, “I think it would be a mess,” says Ryan.

Congress, could try to salvage the act but Ryan doesn’t believe much would happen—and is cynical about the progress the ACA has made thus far. “I think the Republicans have done everything in their power to try to dismantle this thing, to try to stop it,” he says. “The heartbreaking thing is they don’t have any plan that would say, ‘Okay well here’s how we would cover the 20 million – 30 million uninsured.’ There is no plan, it’s ‘we hate Barack Obama, we hate the Affordable Care Act and let the chips fall where they may.  Pull yourself up by your bootstraps.’”

The court is expected to release its decision this June. If the court does rule in favor of King, the ACA could survive-- states might alter their exchange systems so that they’d be classified as state-run.

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