January Up - Now There's a 92.3% Chance that 2012 Will be a Good Year

These jerks have predicted doom throughout this entire rally. Anyone who listened to them missed a chance to make an enormous profit.

There's a 92.3% chance that if its said there is a 92.3% chance of the market being up that it will not be. Recall the last year predictions.

So the market didn't reverse at 1330? That's ok just draw a new line at 1370. If not a new line at 1405, eventually you'll be right and that's the only forecast you'll repeat 6 months after.

The only thing lower than your credibility is the odds of one of your calls coming true.

Irvine, California makes a good point. This etfguide definitely has been insinuating a downward reversal was imminent. But now that stocks have gone straight up everyday, where down days have become seemingly impossible, they are turning bullish! It looks a lot like buying high selling low to me. We'll see how things turn out.

this guy is master at talking out of both sides of his mouth, then cherry picking the correct statement later to repeat endlessly. he frames his arguments so he wins no matter what the outcome is.

I'm don't have total conviction in this rally, but here are the facts:

1) We have better employment numbers, but I still don't believe that they tell the whole, real underlying truth about unemployment (the government uses a "grey" model=neither black/nor white, but one that 'accomodates" their desired interests (political gamesmanship, if you will). If they actually told the REAL truth about unemployment and the federal deficit, we might have a HUGE selloff=PANIC!..
2) Shorts are getting aqueezed the higher this market goes
3) Banks still are having a hard time lending
4) The federal deficit is STILL rising
5) Underfunded pension, S.S. and medicare is still on the horizen
6) Home prices continue to be under pressure, maybe not as much though! this doesn't even take into account for those underwater either.
7) E.U. economic problem(s)
8) Potential Isreal conflict with iran
9) Increasing oil/gas prices, not to mention hogher food prices of which government x-factors out in calculating their "inflation numbers"
10) Etc..

BUT,.......there still is ALOT of cash on the sideline, and this has been a low volume rally, for the most part. Unemployment, eventually, has to bottom out; afterall, consumers do what they do best: CONSUME (and no one is consuming less, let alone there are more of them every year). Businesses need to update their technology. Cars are the oldest they have been for decades (number of years the original owner owns before updating). The market has, eccentially,,been flat for 11+ YEARS; there is no way that the market can be PERPETUALLY flat, especially with more developing nations coming into play, not to mention more people (7 billion+ =potential consumers).etc..

My 2 cents worth, no pun intended!

A stupid projection. The odds are 50-50. Just like rolling dice, past performance isn't a prelude to currenct or future performance.

This year will set the tone for the election of a new President. Obama will make sure the market is good. They will fudge the unemployment numbers and anything else they can manuever to make things look sparkling before election time!! The time to get out of the market is when and if he is re-elected!!

Oh God! The ETF Profit Strategy is a joke. How does Yahoo publish these kinds of crap?

Only one very important thing this article left out: Its all being done with 'funny' money......

I feel sorry for Simon, he forecasted that rally months ago and people are getting hostile now where the market is a couple percent above his original target. In October they called him a jerk for saying stocks will rally big and now he's a jerk because stocks rallied too much. FYI, a few days ago he suggested the S&P will move above 1,350.

Even with the DOW matching the highs in May 2011, most mutual funds and the like have not achieved values that they had in May 2011. I believe the Fed is doing something as suggested with a covert QE3. US treasuries yields look as though something like that is going on.

Well, we are still in a liquidity crisis causing low volume. You're right, cash to invest is in short supply. Ever shopping in the 3rd World? You could probably buy half of Somalia for very little. But the difference is, this is a temporal 3rd World. The stocks are cheap but whose got risk-liquidity? '08 housing USA, '11 PIIGS debt.

There is a 92.3% chance 2012 will be GREAT ... not good. Even if not this could be not quite as great as the late 70s to own stocks (the yield then was 14% on the S&P) but it seems excellent. The yield is still kind of low, but this has been a horrible 5 years and as I said it's a liquidity crisis. I think it's a promising yield given the circumstances. And the trailing 10 year P/E S&P is high, but, again that includes the post-'00 internet bubble economic fumbling before the '03 Bush tax cut and emphatically January 2007 to January 2012. If earnings are indeed $110 on the S&P this year I think given the growth potential on a 20 year horizon from here (and 10 year but with less confidence) you'd better put a 16 multiple on that rather than 12. That's 1760. Not the current S&P BECAUSE of the liquidity crisis and slow global economy presently.

It's only one month in, give the big o a chance he'll screw it up and screw us over

This person who wrote this totaly stupid.We're headed for A depression.

If there were any wrong predictions its because unlike most other years, the Fed has been pumping trillion after trillion, supposedly to encourage housing, but its mainly pushed up stocks and commodities! Therefore the surge continues and will continue as long as the big players like banks and financial institutions, have trillions pouring into their coffers. There is going to be less volume due to higher prices, and that's why the Fed will keep interest rates low, so that the rally continues to the election, and beyond. Each President wants to be remembered for adding a few 1000 points to the DOW! And was'nt it the President, who encouraged stock buying in March/April 2009? Even the IMF want a trillion and the European Central bank 700 billion euros. Everyone wants stocks to touch new highs every year! For most of us, we still need to somehow survive, on pathetic minimum/ near minimum wages!

They're telling us there will be a 90% crash sometime this year. Now they are saying there is a 92.3% of the market being up this year. Were they wrong about the crash? Are they sure this year will be good? Which one is true? Come on tell us the truth. We all deserve to know which one is true.

The only people making money by this "journalism" is the etf guide itself. I predict based in the wind directions in early march that markets will crash than rebound with the vix to trends near the nearest root of e. where's my money?