Mon, May 28, 2012, 1:53 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

Jim Rogers: Little Reason for Optimism in Anything but Agriculture

World markets may be riddled with uncertainty, but billionaire investor Jim Rogers anticipates gains in one sector for years to come.

"If I were buying anything I'd be buying agricultural commodities," he says. "Going forward we're going to have huge shortages of everything - including farmers - I think ag will be a great place for the next 10-20 years," he says.

But don't take that to mean that ag stocks are a buy - that's not what he means.

"Yale did a study recently showing that investors made 300% more by putting money in commodities themselves rather than commodity stocks - that is unless you're a great stock picker."

In other words, he'd play his thesis with commodities futures  or ETFs that track them.

And his thesis is based on massive research, part of which involves the performance of commodities in the 1970's. "At the time economies did nothing and yet commodities went through the roof," he explains.

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. Although a native of Alabama, Rogers famously moved to Singapore due to his on-going belief that Asia is on the cusp of great prosperity.

"He's an investor who eats his own cooking," says Fast Money trader Stephen Weiss. In other words, he doesn't just talk the talk, Rogers walks the walk.

And largely Rogers is short because he is not optimistic about what's going to happen in the world over the next two or three years.

"I'm short emerging markets, short American technology, short European stocks - I don't see much reason to own equities," he says.

In a nutshell, Rogers expects global economic problems to get much worse.

But whether that happens or not he still thinks a long position in commodities makes sense.  That's the one area of the market where he sees potential.

Here's why.

If his thesis doesn't hold and the economies of the world improve, "I'll make money in commodities because (increased demand will generate) shortages," he says. "But if the world doesn't get better, then governments print money and the way to protect against that is to own real assets."

In other words, he thinks commodities are a win/win.

And in case you're wondering about his thoughts on gold (CEC:Commodities Exchange Centre: GCCV1), Rogers says, "it would not surprise me to see gold go to $1200 - but if it goes that low I'd buy a lot more - gold has been up 11 years in a row it deserves a substantial correction."



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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 28, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Kelly is long KRE; Kelly is long IWM; Kelly is long US T-bonds; Kelly is short the Yen; Kelly is short the Swiss Franc; Kelly is short UBS; Kelly is short CS; Weiss is long QCOM; Weiss is long GM; Weiss is long WLP; Weiss is long AAPL calls; Karabell owns shares of APPLE (AAPL); Karabell owns shares of CATERPILLAR (CAT); Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long C; Najarian is long INTC; Najarian is long MOS; Najarian is long YHOO; Najarian is long WFC

Ron Insana
No disclosures

Jim Rogers
Rogers owns gold
Rogers owns silver

Nick Pope
Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC has not provided investment banking services to Energy XXI in the past 12 months. It intends to seek to be a financial advisor or to engage in investment banking services with the subject company and may receive compensation for such services during the three months following publication of this report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm might have a conflict of interest in the future that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC makes a market in the securities of Energy XXI.
Dahlman Rose & Company intends to seek to be a financial advisor or to engage in investment banking services with McMoRan Exploration and may receive compensation for such services. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm might have a conflict of interest in the future that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC intends to seek to be a financial advisor or to engage in investment banking services with Rosetta Resources and may receive compensation for such services during the three months following publication of this report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm might have a conflict of interest in the future that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC makes a market in the securities of Rosetta Resources, Inc.

Shaw Wu
Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. makes a market in the shares of the subject company.
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Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
The Sterne Agee analyst who has active coverage on this company owns a position in the subject company.
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CNBC.com with wires.



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32 comments

  • Bongo Drums  •  5 months ago
    I like Rogers because he doesn't use weasel words and hedge his predictions like so many of the other WS talking heads. You might disagree with him, but you know where he stands and where he's putting his money.
    • gary 5 months ago
      Bongo Drums--- I dont have any qualification to disagree with Rogers.
    • A8B12 5 months ago
      Gary, my dear; you should have said this; "I don't have money to agree with him."
  • mrc  •  5 months ago
    sometimes this guy draws a lot of negative comments, for perspective try googling his past track record. he is very wealthy by his own hand and advice.
  • Scott  •  5 months ago
    Buy hard assets while you still can, folks, because the game clock is running down.

    Rogers is one of the few who gets it - hyperinflation is inevitable. Imbalances are now so great that any useful austerity measures would simply cause such a reduction in economic activity such as to topple the powers that issue the fiat monies.
  • dennis  •  Irvine, California  •  5 months ago
    I plant vegetables every year. Not much room cause I live in a townhouse but make use of the garden beds I have.
    Planting Crooked Neck Squash and Zuchinni this Jan. 30 (So California).
    Will plant String Beans in March.
    My natural resource stocks are Canadian Oil Stocks and one Gold Mining Co.
    All pay dividends but one.
    Keep it simple and you can't go wrong.
  • yahoo user  •  5 months ago
    You're right on the money Jimmy.
  • j  •  Bar Harbor, Maine  •  5 months ago
    He must be doing something right, he has a lot more money than I. His point makes sense, we all know helicopter bernanke loves to print money and monsanto is doing everything they can to control crops and how many people do you know are preparing to be farmers..
  • Dan Z  •  Bayside, California  •  5 months ago
    Two critical issues when it comes to farming; availability of quality farm land and reliable water supplies, both of which are in short supply.
  • jaykay  •  5 months ago
    anyone putting trust in our bonehead politicians to do the right things to dig/legislate ourselves out of the hole they got us into, should have their head examined. our budget deficits are miles and miles away from being tamed. we have $trillion deficits baked into the pie for at least the next 10 years. then add in the unfunded liabilities for soc sec and medicare and you've got a bankrupt nation 50 times over. americans should prepare themselves for a much lesser role for the US in world affairs. our diminished negative wealth will necessarily result in reduced economic political and military might. we've become a 2nd rate country. understand this and you'll position yourselves for a very different future.
  • Quincy Magoo  •  5 months ago
    I think this Rogers has a better than even chance of being correct, at least for US stocks. Our continued search for the lowest possible production costs kills jobs domestically and does not create significant consumer markets overseas. This will continue to cut into corporate profits over the coming decades. Profits are undesirable in a truly competitive marketplace because they add to final product cost. In other words, lower profits make for a more competitive company in the short term. One just has to look at the manufacturers of TVs to see the effects of open, unfettered competition. Unfortunately, profits drive innovation, and the lack of profit means industry stagnation, which means lower future sales, and so on. Killing the customer kills the business, and we've been causing the customer a lot of pain over the last 30 years.
  • Russell  •  Hong Kong, Hong Kong  •  5 months ago
    I have a lot of respect for Rogers but his advice to play commodity futures is totally unsuitable for ordinary investors. As to ETF that tracks commodity futures, look at one example like DBA - it is basically going nowhere for the last 5 years.
  • First L  •  San Diego, California  •  5 months ago
    best hard assets to be in are bullets
  • DC Beltway John  •  Washington, District of Columbia  •  5 months ago
    It seems to me JIm Rogers is on to something. When you look at a five year chart of MOO or DBA, they seem to perform well with Gov't stimulus in place, however, they fall like a stone as the stimulus peters out. I guess deflation returns when markets are not proped up by Gov't spending, how long can this last? Shortages will cause prices to rise as well, but that doesn't seem to be a problem as of yet. I say watch out for deflation to return. Ex- Gov'ts excessive spending, housing is still way too expensive in the DC area, using an inflation calculator to adjust for housing prices from 40 years or so ago. A house that sold for $38,250 in 1971 should be worth about $210,640 in todays dollars, but will bring closer to $500k. Still a lot of room to fall I think. Housing should beat inflation, but only by 1-2% a year. the house should be worth about $325,600 today.
  • Post.Haste  •  5 months ago
    I like Jim. He was guest host for an hour on a stock show that said "email your questions for Jim". I did but it was too late for the show, the show said they would forward the question. Jim answered me back via personal email and has promptly responded to a couple of questions since. When he doesn't now why corn went up he says "I have no idea". Disclosure, I own RJA
  • Q  •  Greensboro, North Carolina  •  5 months ago
    Many invasive plants are showing toleranc e to the monsanto herbicides and in the next 5 years their cuts to production will start to show up, meaning less supply and higher prices. Demand of 9 billion mouths will ensure it so. Right now farmers are learning to "stack" their herbicides (meaning make multiple applications of different brands). This will slow down the resistance buildup but not prevent it. Start learning to garden now. Cheap, tastier food, less poison.
  • jaykay  •  5 months ago
    i hope his prediction for a decline in the price of gold holds true. i own plenty of gold at much lower prices but would welcome the opportunity to load up the truck at $1200 the ounce. paper currencies always fail and we have a ringside seat watching the destruction of the US dollar before our very eyes. exciting and potentially lucrative times are upon us if we use our minds to exploit chaos. folks, a new reserve currency is in the offing (backed in whole or in part by gold) and those with gold will emerge wealthy and those holding only US designer toilet paper dollars will lose virtually everything. do what you need to do to protect yourselves and your loved ones. the signs could not be more obvious.
    • gary 5 months ago
      JayKay---You sound mostly right to me; but I dont know if I will live that long. I dont have anything below 1200/oz.
    • jaykay 5 months ago
      gary, whatever price you buy at, the ultimate goal is to be a holder of gold when the alternative reserve currency is unveiled. at that point, depending on how much actual gold backs each new currency unit (20%-40% sounds reasonable), gold should immediately jump to between $8,000-$16,000 the ounce. while it may sound far fetched to some, if you have been watching closely to recent events you will have seen several inter-country currency deals announced between japan and china as well as india and japan. china and japan are the largest foreign owners of US debt ($2.5 trillion approx) and its safe to assume they don't want anymore. they know as we know that the US dollar is being propped up by america's military might...nothing else. by fiscal measures, the dollar is a worthless piece of paper. the chinese and indians are huge purchasers and/or producers of gold with china being the largest producer in the world. interestingly enough, they sell none of what they produce. the bric countries and some of the middle east oil producers will unite behind a real currency, one that is backed by gold. buy with impunity and reap huge rewards.
  • Alice  •  Perry, Michigan  •  5 months ago
    I still like silver not gold.
  • Tim Arnold  •  Baxley, Georgia  •  5 months ago
    did he check the CME futures prices this morning i did flat line with increase in production cost and equipment OH I GET IT its government farm programs he was talking about
  • Yeah-Way  •  5 months ago
    What a one tune Charlie this guy has been for... let's see... nearly two decades?
    • Cosmo 5 months ago
      yeah funny comment, but he always makes money, when others don't.
    • jimmy 5 months ago
      Makes money off Americans, while living in Singapore and paying no taxes. The guy is a swell American.
    • gary 5 months ago
      Yeah-Way--- A one tune Charlie? Like in Billionaire?
  • B C Y Y  •  Midland, Texas  •  5 months ago
    Moved to Singapore to avoid the jail time when the Amer. public finds out what he and Soros have been doing.
    • etinarcadiaego 5 months ago
      Tin foil hat conspiracy theorist.
    • A Yahoo! User 5 months ago
      Actually, I think the Fed, certain people in gov't, or big banks should see jail time.
  • tom  •  5 months ago
    american farmers are fed by working class and it needs to stop if they cant make it on theyr own get out of farming sickining freeloaders milking the working class.ALL WE HEAR IS I CANT MAKE IT. 28 PERCENT RISE IN PROFITS LAST YEAR 4 YEARS BUMPER CROPS FREELOADERS!
    • B C Y Y 5 months ago
      You would be right if the middle class paid much tax, but it's mostly the 1% that pays the farmers' gov't programs (and everything else).
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