The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ key monthly jobs report was one of
the most anticipated economic data releases throughout 2012. Reaction to the numbers ran the gamut from disappointment
and pleasant surprise to pure befuddlement.
The data served as an indicator for the economic recovery and helped fire up a
contentious debate ahead of the presidential election. So is America getting back to work?
With data on all but the final month of the year out, it's clear the economy is
growing, slowly and deliberately -- slowly perhaps being the key word. One
way to look at it: in the first half of the year, the U.S. averaged an addition
of 146.6K jobs each month. In the second half (minus December data), it
averaged 167.6k new jobs per month. But on a monthly basis, the U.S. started out
2012 on a jobs growth note it was unable to match for the rest of the year, with
275,000 jobs added in January. From there, the numbers went downhill and in April hit a span in which the economy mustered just 200,000 jobs total across a three-month-period.
Most economists would like to see consistent jobs growth in excess of 200,000 each month
for a healthy recovery.
"Unemployment is still elevated and job growth has been slow, nonetheless
unemployment has been coming down, and over 1.5 million jobs have been created
this year, consistent with a slow but steady economic expansion," says
JPMorgan chief economist, Michael Feroli.
One major issue is that it's been considerably tough for those who have lost
jobs to find new ones. "While rates of layoffs and discharges have been
low, so too have hiring rates, so while one is less likely to lose their job
now, if you do lose a job, it will be difficult to find another one," says
Feroli.
Conspiracy Theory
You can't discuss jobs in 2012 without mentioning the now infamous tweet of
former General Electric CEO Jack Welch. In response to the better-than-expected
September jobs report released on October 5, which was the final release before
the election, Welch tweeted: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago
guys will do anything…can't debate so change the numbers." Soon followed a
media frenzy about Welch's conspiracy theory regarding the Obama administration
cooking the books.
"Having followed these numbers for 25 years and knowing the people who put
them out, it's absolutely bizarre; it's outrageous," said
Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, on YFinance's
Daily Ticker. "The data [are] based on surveys of tens of thousands of
employers and households every month."
What happened: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' reported the U.S. added 171,000
jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September, down from 8.1% a
month earlier. It also reported that the civilian labor force rose by 578,000
to 155.6 million.
On October 9, Welch penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled, "I
Was Right About That Strange Jobs Report." In it, he compared the backlash
of criticism that ensued post-tweet to how people were treated in Soviet Russia
or Communist China, reiterating his stance that the 7.8% unemployment rate was "downright
implausible."
A month later, the jobs growth figure was revised down by 33,000. And the
November report showed people were leaving, not joining, the labor force. But
the unemployment rate for October was unrevised, and we learned the
unemployment rate for November fell even lower, to 7.7%.
The Problem With the Unemployment Rate
The final employment data released inside the 2012 calendar year, reflecting
the job situation in November, is a perfect example of why it's a bad idea to
rely on the unemployment rate to understand what's happening in the economy. On
the surface, it would seem very positive. The rate dropped to 7.7%, its lowest
level since 2008. However, the reason the rate dropped is because of an exodus
of people from the "pool of available workers" -- 542,000
additional adults chose not to look for work.
That's not good. And it’s part of why Jerry Webman, OppenheimerFunds’ chief economist,
would rather people focus on the jobs growth figures, not the headline
unemployment rate.
[Read more: Unemployment Rate Falls, More Adults Discouraged, Quit
Looking]
What's Next
Jobs growth in 2013 will come from the private side, and the good news is it
has already been coming from there, says Webman. "If you compare it to
other post-recession periods, there's no question that employment levels have
stayed lower longer, which is exactly what you'd expect in the aftermath of a
crisis,” he says. “It takes much longer
for economies to recover and begin to expand."
One area that's not likely to see growth is government employment. Any sort of
grand bargain to avert the “fiscal cliff” is expected to come with cuts
somewhere. "We talk about cuts in entitlement but there will be cuts
in government programs, and those carry jobs," says Webman.
As for the unemployment rate, "the economy would have to add about 12.8
million jobs over the next three years—about 356,000 each month—to bring
unemployment down to 6 percent," writes
Peter Morici in an op-ed for YFinance. That would require GDP growth in the
range of 4% to 5%, he adds.
For perspective, JPMorgan's Feroli expects the economy to grow at an annualized
rate of a little under 2% in 2013 -- although he would like to see much faster
growth.
Barring any knee jerk reaction to a fiscal cliff deal, or lack thereof, 2013 may turn out to be not so very different than 2012, with jobs growth mirroring a slow economic recovery.


