Jobs’ Numbers Data, New S&P All-Time Highs

MrTopStep.com

The S&P [SNP:^GSPC] traded into another new all-time contract high on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJI:^DJI] reached a new intraday high, sold off mid-session and rallied late in the day to close +0.1% higher. The Nasdaq suffered its first loss in five sessions. The S&P traded at its second straight high on Wednesday and its 8th new high in 2014.

View gallery

.
ES 06 14 5 Min 4 4 2014 1024x546 Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

Short and sweet

I think we have been more right than wrong over the last three weeks starting with the PitBull’s Thursday-Friday low before expiration. We told you about the selling of the big four-letter stocks in the last week of March and then the buybacks of the last 4 days. Are we perfect? No, but we always give it our best. This morning we will see the March jobs report, which has already been heavily advertised as a sharply higher number. Much of this has to do the extreme cold weather that took over the U.S. starting in January until a few weeks ago. Bloomberg’s non-farm payroll consensus is 206,000 and the consensus range is 175,00 to 275,000. Goldman is looking for “a bounceback to 200,000″ and a drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.6%.”

Pie in the sky

Based on the last two days of volume in the S&P — 1.1mil on Wednesday and 1.23mil yesterday — it looks like investors took to the sidelines ahead of today’s monthly U.S. employment data. Whisper numbers pointing to a strong showing this morning. The March U.S. payrolls numbers are going to be major test that the economic weakness from January and February was due to bad weather and the recovery is still moving along. The median forecast is for a rise of 200,000 in payrolls, though many floor traders we spoke to say they thought the numbers could come in above 220,000.

The Asian markets closed mostly lower and Europe is trading mixed. Today’s economic calendar is focused on the 8:30AM ET release of the Nonfarm Payroll number and the Economic Situation report. The consensus is for it to be higher than February’s gain of 175,000 new nonfarm jobs. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on monetary policy in Hong Kong,and Treasury STRIPS comes out at 3:00PM ET. If you think the week is over, you have another think coming…

Our View

There have been buy imbalances all week. Can you see how important month-end and beginning of the month buying and selling is to the marketplace? I’m not talking about to the second, I am talking about timing — how money flows in and out of stocks and when you can expect it. Here is what I think: There is a big possibility that the jobs number comes in higher and there is a very good possibility that the S&P will react in kind to the upside, but will the highs hold? Our feeling is if the S&P gaps sharply higher there will be some type of “countertrend Friday” trade, but after that, if the S&P starts moving back up again, shorting will not be advised. Above my 1885- 1890 level are a BUNDLE of buy stops that go all the way up to 1908 to 1912. I’m leaving it like that. I hope you have a great weekend and thanks for flying with MrTopStep.

Sign up for the Saturday, April 12, webinar featuring Jeffrey Hirsch from the Stock Traders Almanac and Danny Riley from MrTopStep End of the Best 6 Months for Stocks

04/12/2014 11:00 CT

STAad Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

End of the Best 6 Months for Stocks — An open discussion on where stocks are now and where they are going

  • Midterm Election Year History & Tendencies
  • End of the Best Six Months Strategy
  • Sell in May But Don’t Go Away
  • Q2/2014 Outlook
  • Summer Shorts
  • Sector and Commodity Seasonal Set-Ups

Bonus! A chance to win a copy of the 2014 Stock Traders Almanac (A $50 value)

As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops when trading futures and options.

  • In Asia, 7 of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp. +0.74%, Hang Seng -0.24%, Nikkei -0.05%
  • In Europe, 6 of 12 markets are trading higher: DAX +0.38%, FTSE +0.45%
  • Morning headline:“Markets seen higher, awaiting jobs report”
  • S&P Fair Value: 1881.42 (futures 4.08 higher at 1885.5 as of 7:20AM CT)
  • Total volume: LOW 1.24M ESM and 4.2K SPM traded
  • Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls number, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speech on monetary policy in Hong Kong, and Treasury STRIPS.
  • E-mini S&P 5001845.00+7.00 - +0.38%
  • Crude102.54+2.10 - +2.09%
  • Shanghai Composite0.00N/A - N/A
  • Hang Seng22596.971+219.82 - +0.98%
  • Nikkei 22514606.88-201.97 - -1.36%
  • DAX9490.79-20.06 - -0.21%
  • FTSE 1006590.69-32.15 - -0.49%
  • Euro1.3798

View gallery

.
 Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs
 Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

Jobs Numbers Data, New S&P All Time Highs

Rates

View Comments (0)

Recommended for You

  • Obama to GOP: 'Stop just hating all the time'

    KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Pointing the finger at Republicans for congressional inaction, President Barack Obama chided lawmakers Wednesday for spending the waning days before their month-long summer break trying to sue him rather than addressing economic issues that could boost the middle class.

    Associated Press
  • ARGENTINE STOCKS CRASH

    Argentina's stock market is tanking after the...

    Business Insider
  • American Express Cards

    Earn Cash Back, Travel, or Points. Find the Card That's Right For You!

    AdChoicesAmerican ExpressSponsored
  • Airbus adamant no room for more talks in cancelled Japan jet deal

    Airbus on Thursday said its decision to cancel a $2.2 billion jet order from Skymark Airlines was final, rejecting the Japanese carrier's suggestion that talks were still ongoing. The European aircraft maker said this week it had informed Skymark that its purchase of six A380 superjumbos "has been…

    AFP
  • In San Francisco real estate, $1M won't buy much

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — San Francisco Association of Realtors President Betty Taisch has two words of advice for those who want to live here and think $1 million will buy them their dream house: Think again.

    Associated Press
  • Panasonic, Tesla to build giant battery plant in US

    Japanese electronics giant Panasonic and US electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors said Thursday they will jointly build and operate a huge lithium ion battery plant known as the Gigafactory. Under the deal, Tesla will run the operations at the proposed US-based plant, while its Japanese partner will…

    AFP
  • Play

    Why Do Millennials Prefer Cash to Investing Money?

    In the last year, the S&P 500 delivered 17% and cash investments delivered 1%. Which would you rather have? In a Bankrate study, millennials said they'd rather have the cash. The Mutual Fund Store's Senior Vice President of Investments Andy Smith joins Simon Constable on the News Hub to discuss.…

    WSJ Live
  • Wisconsin Supreme Court upholds 2011 union law

    MADISON, Wis. (AP) — The fight over Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's signature policy achievement, a law effectively ending collective bargaining for most public employees, ended Thursday with the state Supreme Court declaring it to be constitutional.

    Associated Press
  • 4 Unusual Savings Strategies That Really Work

    It's just one of those facts of life: Saving money can be really hard. If you're trying to save and not getting ahead, it might be time to try one of these easy, everyday savings habits that will help you tighten your finances.

    U.S.News & World Report LP
  • 7 Signs You're About to be Fired

    Did your mistake cost you your job? How can you tell? Here are some signs youre about to get the boot.

    AdChoicesMonster.comSponsored
  • 3D Systems Shares Are Cratering

    Shares in 3D Systems were down more than 12% in...

    Business Insider
  • What SunPower Earnings Mean for First Solar and SolarCity

    After markets close Thursday, solar panel maker SunPower will report second-quarter results. Competitors First Solar and SolarCity are scheduled to report results next week.

    24/7 Wall St.
  • Sanctions will damage Russia if not lifted quickly

    MOSCOW (AP) — U.S. and European sanctions against Russia's energy and finance sectors are strong enough to cause deep, long-lasting damage within months unless Moscow persuades the West to repeal them by withdrawing support for Ukrainian insurgents.

    Associated Press
  • Bank of America ordered to pay $1.27 billion for 'Hustle' fraud

    By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK (Reuters) - A federal judge on Wednesday ordered Bank of America Corp to pay a $1.27 billion penalty for fraud over shoddy mortgages sold by the former Countrywide Financial Corp. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff in Manhattan ruled after a jury last October found the…

    Reuters
  • Adidas shares plunge 13% after Russia warning

    Adidas shares tanked more than 13 percent after it cut its profit targets for 2014, warning "tensions" in Russia would hit its bottom line.

    CNBC
  • Why You Should Prepare for the Next Bear Market Now

    The stock market is going gangbusters these days, with the S&P 500 close to surpassing 2,000 points. While the index may never fall back to that level, bear markets will one day hit us hard again. It's a good idea to develop a plan for the next bear market now, while your asset values aren't free…

    U.S.News & World Report LP
  • The Lipton twist on a lemonade stand.

    The Lipton twist on a lemonade stand. #BeMoreTea

    AdChoicesbemoreteaSponsored
  • Play

    Tesla's Earnings: What to Watch For

    Electric-car maker Tesla is scheduled to be released after the bell Thursday, and Mike Ramsey joins MoneyBeat with Paul Vigna to preview the results.

    WSJ Live
  • 5 Little-Known Ways to Boost Your Retirement Savings

    Saving for retirement is no easy task. Fortunately, we have several tools and strategies that can help us reach our retirement goals. Maintain your asset allocation. When you begin investing you typically select an asset allocation that suits your risk tolerance and investment goals.

    U.S.News & World Report LP
  • Boeing to make longest 787-10 Dreamliner exclusively in South Carolina

    By Harriet McLeod NORTH CHARLESTON S.C. (Reuters) - Boeing Co said on Wednesday it will build its biggest Dreamliner, the 787-10, exclusively at its South Carolina plant in North Charleston, a move that marked the continuing evolution of Boeing's production strategy for its flagship jet. The newest…

    Reuters
  • Can a Repair Shop I Didn't Use Send Me to Collections?

    Are you obligated to pay for car parts that a repair shop ordered after they gave you an estimate? And can they send you to a debt collector if you don't pay?

    Credit.com
  • GE, Synchrony Financial Lower Sights for Thursday IPO

    General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) spinoff Synchrony Financial priced its initial public offering of 125 million shares at $23 at the bottom of the expected range of $23 to $26 a share. At that price gross ...

    24/7 Wall St.
  • Analyst’s Four Gold Miner Takeover Targets May Include a Gigantic Winner

    A new research report from Cowen suggests that some of the senior gold miners are looking to make acquisitions now and will make the play to acquire some of the undervalued developers.

    24/7 Wall St.
  • $40-Off Limited Time Offer From Norton

    Award-winning PC protection that doesn't slow you down. Easy installation & money-back guarantee. Download today with our $40-off limited time offer.

    AdChoicesNorton by SymantecSponsored