Intra-month the divergence is more magnified. Mid-month strength in both indices can be expected later this week during the usually strong 9th-11th trading days – Thursday through Monday. But, end-of-second-quarter portfolio pumping and the semi-annual Russell index reshuffling, tends to push techs and small cap stocks higher at the end of June.
In the graphic below NASDAQ strength the last three days of June is clear with three strong bullish days – all up 66.7% of the time. During the last seven trading days of June NASDAQ has 3 bullish days and one bearish day compared to the S&P, which has four of the seven days in the bearish category.
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By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal