On Sept. 4 I wrote Higher Yields on Bonds, Gold and Crude Oil, and since then bonds have been moving higher with gold and crude oil moving sideways to down.
On Sept. 18 I wrote How Capital Markets Will React to FOMC News where I updated the risk/reward for these markets as they react to the Fed statement and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's press conference.
The yield on the Treasury 10-year note peaked at 3.007% on Sept. 6, and the yield on the 30-year bond peaked at and 3.94% on Aug. 22.
My call for September was that these yields will form trading ranges influenced by monthly pivots at 2.725% on the 10-year and 3.738% on the 30-year and this proved to be the case.
Continue to trade the bond market just like a stock using iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ($105.80). The Treasury ETF is above its 50-day simple moving average at $105.23 with the 200-day SMA a strong resistance at $114.00. The weekly chart ended last week positive with rising momentum with the close above the five-week modified moving average at $105.74 with the 200-week SMA at $107.82. My weekly value level is $103.60 with a monthly risky level at $107.27. My semiannual value level lags at $92.32 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $111.43 and $120.62.
After continuing to fail at its 50-day SMA at $1,344.7 an ounce, Comex gold ($1,287.6) is back below $1,300 trading to a Tuesday low at $1,290.5 as the daily chart shifts to negative. The weekly chart stays negative if Friday's close is below the five-week MMA at $1,333.2 with the 200-week SMA at $1,475.2. Daily and monthly value levels are $1,271.9 and $1,145.2 with weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,401.6, $1,435.6, $1,599.9 and $1,852.1.
Continue to trade the gold market just like a stock using an ETF. SPDR Gold Trust ($124.59) is below its 50-day SMA at $130.04 with the 200-day SMA at $141.78. The gold index is below its five-week MMA at $129.82. My monthly value level is $110.40 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at $135.16 and $138.20.
Crude oil ($101.78) remains below its 50-day SMA at $106.11 with the 200-day SMA at $97.73 on an oversold daily chart. The weekly chart remains negative with the five-week MMA at $104.72 and the 200-week SMA at $91.05. Monthly and daily value levels are $99.84 and $99.26 with weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.87, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23.
Continue to trade crude oil using the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($83.44) which is above its 50-day SMA at $82.79 with the 200-day SMA at $79.24. The energy ETF is above its five-week MMA at $82.87. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $82.19 and $81.91 with a monthly pivot at $83.51 and semiannual and annual risky levels at $88.35 and $91.08.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg ETF Fund ($151.62) popped to a new all-time high at $157.06 following the Fed statement on Sept. 18 and ended last week below its 50-day SMA at $152.51 with the 200-day SMA at $146.54. Diamonds are below its five-week MMA at $152.08. My weekly value level is $146.86 with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $158.91, $164.06 and $167.20.
PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ($79.68) is above its 50-day SMA at $76.91 with the 200-day SMA at $71.48 and a new multi-year high at $79.72 set on Oct. 1. The Nasdaq 100 shares ETF is well above its five-week MMA at $77.17. Weekly and quarterly value levels are $77.75 and $77.11 with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $79.87, $80.72 and $85.12.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($169.34) is above its 50-day SMA at $168.18 with the 200-day SMA at $159.31 and a new all time high at $173.60 set on Sept. 19. The spider ETF is above its five-week MMA at $167.86. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $164.45 and $160.60 with semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $174.10, $174.79 and $185.05.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.