Long Bond Touched Its Next Lower Target

Rod David
May 22, 2013

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Tapering, Bernanke, and minutes - in other words, all things FOMC - created a lot of volatility Wednesday. No matter how wide, it was not arbitrary, as relevant price levels continue influencing intraday price action. Most notable is that the long bond's new low bounced from touching its target, but not high enough to reverse momentum up.
Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's dip to 83.50 was recovered back to the recent 84.50 high, but not through it, and not enough to trigger the 84.45 buy signal without probing higher Thursday.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Wednesday morning's bounce up to 1.2955 resistance was exceeded all the way up to 1.3000, but only momentarily before reversing down sharply on the day to 1.2840. The 1.2745 target is in-play, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

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Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's lows tested what had been Monday morning's 1357.70 bounce limit. Wednesday's recovery probed 1400.00 resistance, and failed from 1414.00. The reaction down probed 1357.70, whose break would now target 1344.00 and then new lows.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Another test of the 23.25 buy signal failed again Wednesday. The unfinished business below at Monday's gap down does undermine any near-term recovery attempts.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Another test of the 144-24 buy signal failed again Wednesday, producing a drop to new lows at the 142-19 target. Its bounce to 143-10 stopped short of reversing momentum up, which would be triggered by closing back above 143-30.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Rather than accelerate higher above 96.00, it was probed below again, putting into play an attack on 94.00 that was fulfilled intraday by testing 94.20. An actual touch of 94.00 should be avoided to allow a credible rally effort Thursday morning.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Wednesday's narrow range consolidated Tuesday's recovery above 4.16. But the rally cannot tolerate much more delay in extending higher.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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