Market edges are in place as traders await the Fed day jump ball
We are closing out the traditional end of the best six months, performance-wise, for the stock market and heading into the “sell in May and go away” phase as summer markets are coming. However, first things first – month-end, tomorrow’s FOMC decision and Friday’s jobs data. Stats are favorable over the next few days … we shall see.
Snippets: mts2 (07:23) Bloomberg reports that ECB President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative easing program isn’t imminent and remains relatively unlikely, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting. The central bank does stand ready to embark on QE if needed, Draghi said at the gathering attended by lawmakers from the parties that form the nation’s coalition government, the official told reporters.
Russian troops on Ukraine border have moved back to their bases inside Russia; Russia’s defense minister reaches out to Pentagon and said is open to defusing current tensions. Also, Moscow assures U.S. it won’t invade Ukraine, Pentagon – DJ. **Holy mackerel – He is in touch with the common people too!http://bit.ly/1nCBPVH
Coming into this week we were waiting on 134 S&P 500 companies to report. Including this morning’s data, 55% of the S&P 500 have reported earnings. 196 have beat estimates, 68 have missed and 12 were unchanged. Some of these earnings were data that was previously lowered, so it appears the equities are slowly humming along, but the big guns come out tomorrow – FOMC decision and Friday’s BLS jobs data. *She’s got the whole world in her hands, she’s got the whole wide world in her hands — SETTING UP THE JUMP BALL tomorrow 2 p.m.ET – william_blount.
Homeownership has shrunk to 64.8% – lowest level since 1995.
Today started with 108k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1872.50 – 1865.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1844.50 – 1871.30 before settling at 1866.00, up 5.9 handles. *Chance (08:21) Buyers maintained in control overnight – initial support at 1866-1868 followed by 1861.75-1863.75. Ideally, that 1866 level will hold if this market is truly strong. Therefore will be looking for a rotation higher off that level up to 1877.25-1879.25. I wonder if he has been reading about The Yell, 1866.25, by chance …
Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 3.5 handles higher to 1869.20 – 1870.00, the first 15 minutes trading 1873.00 / 1868.00 and the first half hour expanded to the early high of 1874.30. At 9:00 consumer confidence disappointed, checking in at 82.3 vs exp of 83.0, and the index fell back to a new intraday low of 1865.50 at 9:30 before grinding higher to retest/just short of the opening range, on the first pass going into the European close.
william_blount (09:08) spill up, find the a.m. low. Chicagostock (09:08) 1865 + ES VOL WINDOWS 1864.75 x 1875.75. Check your charts >> Chicagostock (09:15) reversal …william_blount (09:17) LOC hod = the 73.5 SPOT — it sealed the spill. Chicagostock (09:30) WB – found your am low. william_blount (09:32) the 1865.5 SPOT or YELL 1866.25 got the fill. william_blount (09:34) bulls need the opening 1869.2 under them first issue and CHICAGO — nice heads up at 9:08CT. you KNOW 1850 cash is being defended and 1884 cash is being resisted — take the SPOTS and WORK IN – like today so far 1865.5 and 1873.5.
The trick for the bulls and a tough one on a day like today, but doable = CONVERT THE 1873.5 SPOT on the a.m. or mid p.m. highs got to kill the spill. Then, the trick for the BEARS is to get the 35% odds and seal the mid a.m. high in a fashion that the better odds, 65% on the mid p.m., fails and then follow it up with a hard down into the last hr low — pretty tough to do all that too — why? because ROPE FOLLOWS EXPANDED – william_blount. And … 1875.00 – the HOD printed at 11:36 before finding the sideways sweet spot.
Kathy’s midday update: http://bit.ly/1fpBmnz
stockmarketwhisperer (12:50) this isnt good > Deutsche Bank, 14 other banks’ outlooks to negative by S&P. *Also, (13:14) Ukraine separatists seize second provincial capital fire on police. I thought people were suggesting yesterday’s late rally was due to: Reuters – Russian troops on Ukraine border have moved back to their bases inside Russia Russia’s defense min reaches out to Pentagon and said is open to defusing current tensions. Also, Moscow assures U.S. it won’t invade Ukraine, Pentagon says according to DJ. So the algos were asleep at the switch today as the equities drifted in light volume following headlines and just shy of 1875.00 – the HOD and hovered there, within a few handles of the HOD. The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, showed a small sell imbalance and grew to a modest $300M3ew2 going into the cash close. The futures were trading 1872.40 area on the cash close before settling at 1871.80, up 5.8 handles on the day. E-mini volume on the day was 1.2M with the VIX going out at 13.71, down 26 ticks on the day.
[TWTR] earnings post close http://bit.ly/1ixDR7B LOL
Eco calendar:http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ This week we have more earnings, BOJ decision, GDP, FOMC decision and the BLS jobs data.
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 220,000 in April after a modestly weaker-than-expected 192,000 increase in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.6% after holding steady at 6.7% in March on proportional gains in household employment and unemployment. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% in April after holding steady in March, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours after a sharp rebound in March. Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands) Friday, May 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Median Range Responses Apr14 Mar14 Feb14
Payrolls +220k +180k to +250k 16 – +192k +197k
Private Jobs +210k +180k to +250k 12 – +192k +188k
Jobless Rate 6.6% 6.6% to 6.6% 15 – 6.7% 6.7%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% Flat to +0.3% 13 – Flat +0.4%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.5 9 – 34.5 34.3
Posted yesterday: The S&P 500 has made four 1% moves down and up over the last 3 trading days 1879 to 1861, 1861 to 1876, 1876 to 1850 and 1850 to 1872 – @Convertbond.
What happened last 2 NFP #s? Will be interesting to see if people want to be long again into the next number. So maybe a front run of sellers into next friday, then instead of peak high we get a peak low – Chicagostock.
- Mario Draghi