Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
Despite a nice down day the NHs/NLs stayed elevated, just out of the 90s range. Something will have to correct today, either we will see prices back up or NHs/NLs much lower.
Quote of the Day:
Dishonesty, cowardice and duplicity are never impulsive.
–George A. Knight
Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:
The bears need to show follow-through and this morning’s opening gap down gets them off to a good start. We were brilliant at the 1892 call for the highs and a short on Friday, we missed by a bit on the 1881 call for a hold, however, as the market rolled up the sidewalks and went home.
We like this 2% area as a gathering point for some reflection, if we can’t hold here on the open we want to watch the 1846 area for a hold. On the upside, we see 1870 as a target.
On the MiM:
A late surge in the day toward the close had us almost with a signal on Friday, but not quite as selling continued into the close.
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|Date Of Signal||Direction||x:00 Entry/Close||x:20 Entry/Close||x:30 Entry/Close|
- xx:20pm exit as the signal went away.
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Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
This is one of the reasons I think we might see higher today… the bonds did not scare and money didn’t flood in. Watch this today so see if it is delayed.
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Breadth Charts in Full: Zweig Breadth Thrust
Zweig took a bigger hit than I would have thought with just a single 2:1 down day. Looking to see if we can bounce, so far Europe has been sympathetic this morning pre-market.
Cumulative Volume Index:
Down volume wasn’t too devastating.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
This one, the other hand, took a real swan dive.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:
This one back to where it needs to stay for the bulls.
Trenders Short Term Trender - McClellan Summation Index:
Long Term Trender - Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
A few weekends ago I traveled north to the Bath, Maine area and while I was there I wanted to take a side journey to see Merry Meeting Bay. It is an area of Maine that I pass by all the time but I had never actually seen this bay, lake or whatever it is. It is, in fact, geographically unique and does not have a proper name. It is tidal like a bay but it is fresh water. The bay is sourced by 5 rivers, the confluence of which drains about 40% of the state of Maine and some of New Hampshire. The inlet to the bay from the ocean is narrow and the volume of water coming in is greater than the volume of water that a flooding tide can create, hence while rising and lowering with the ocean tides, it remains fresh water.
The picture above is from “The Chops”, this is the narrow inlet and that is 40% of the Maine’s fresh water flowing past. If you get up to these parts, plan a visit to Swan’s Island, you have to make a reservation, but it is a state owned sanctuary that they tell me is well worth the visit. They are not open until May, I will have to wait.
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Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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