Sun, Feb 26, 2012, 7:49 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Debt worries check signs of economic recovery

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By Richard Hubbard

LONDON (Reuters) - Signs the euro zone's weak economy may have turned a corner gave a brief lift to the single currency in choppy trading on Tuesday, but worries over the setback in Greek debt talks, seen as vital for avoiding a messy default, weighed on sentiment.

The Markit flash Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Composite Index (PMI), often seen as a growth indicator, jumped to 50.4 from December's 48.3, its highest reading in four months, and easily beating the highest forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.

"The index seems to have bottomed out in October and we've had three months of improvement. Three months we see as a turning point signal, and we are beginning to get a bit more confident," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at the data provider Markit.

A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion and below this level, a contraction.

The euro, which had edged lower at the start of trading after Greek debt talks stalled, turned up on the PMI data to hit $1.3603, its highest level since January 4. But soon drifted down to be 0.1 percent lower $1.3010, well above a 17-month trough near $1.2624 hit on January 13.

"Although we still see downside risks for activity in early 2012, today's report suggests that the EMU (European Union)economy is not going to fall in a deep recession near-term," Annalisa Piazza, market economist at Newedge said.

Share markets were less impressed by the PMI data and, although the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 (:.FTEU3) index of top shares initially ticked higher, it soon traded down to below its opening levels, to be off 0.8 percent at around 1,039.85 points.

Investors remain nervous about the outlook for the euro zone debt crisis after the region's finance ministers rejected an offer by private creditors to restructure their Greek debt.

The ministers said they could not accept a coupon of 4 percent on new, longer-dated debt expected be issued to Greece's private creditors in exchange for their agreement to write down the nominal value of the debt they hold by 50 percent.

Safe-haven German government bond futures moved down after the PMI data and were about 22 ticks lower on the day at 137.21, a fresh one-month low. Benchmark ten-year German yields were 2 basis points higher at 2 percent.

The German debt market reversed initial gains after PMI data also showed Germany's manufacturing sector grew in January for the first time since September, added to a better outlook for the euro zone.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Euro zone flash PMI http://link.reuters.com/cuh64s

Debt crisis in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

European banks in graphics http://link.reuters.com/qux33s

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In equity markets, the brighter economic outlook was clouded by results from German conglomerate Siemens (SIEGn.DE), a bellwether for Europe's manufacturing industry, which showed a 23 percent decline in its first-quarter core operating profit, missing the most pessimistic analysts' forecasts.

Investors are also growing nervous about the outlook for Portugal, the next weakest euro zone member, whose bond yields have been rising steadily over the past week.

The MSCI world equity index was down about 0.35 percent at 315.16 point after another quiet day in Asia where many markets are still closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Risks posed by Europe's debt woes had prompted the Bank of Japan to cut its growth forecasts on Tuesday.

In the commodities markets, Brent crude oil held above $110 as supply concerns rooted in tension between Iran and the West offset fears over demand growth stemming from protracted negotiations over Greece's debt.

Spot gold was steady just below six-week highs at $1,669.30 an ounce as investors await the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, which ends on Wednesday, for any signs that interest rates will stay lower for longer, as that could put some pressure on the U.S. dollar.

(Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong; Editing by Catherine Evans/Anna Willard)

 

34 comments

  • WM  •  Indianapolis, Indiana  •  1 month 3 days ago
    Debt is becoming a cancer of the world both personal and national. Debt causes people to loose their homes and countries to default. Carrying too much debt is irresponsible and has grave consequences. The USA has so much debt and has no plan to pay it down. Is there anyway out for the USA ?
  • RonR  •  1 month 3 days ago
    So, how is that "Hope & Change" working out for you?
  • JustaMarine  •  1 month 3 days ago
    There is no recovery, there will be no recovery, recovery is mathematically impossible people!
    Prepare yourselves for an Obama dictatorship when the big 'change' comes! Just prepare yourselves and quit with the wishful thinking already!
  • The Answer is 42  •  1 month 3 days ago
    From the BBC: "Christine Lagarde met German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday. After the meeting, Ms Lagarde said that the eurozone needed a "larger firewall" to prevent the debt crisis spreading. She added there was risk of a global economic spiral reminiscent of the 1930s unless definite action was taken on the eurozone crisis."
  • mark  •  1 month 2 days ago
    Buy on the worry headlines....sell on the hope/ "they" are meeting for a resolution headlines...get a big bag of popcorn, it's gonna be a long movie.
  • Asian Dragon  •  1 month 3 days ago
    The Greek principle is that Greeks can relentlessly (life time) receive free money without actually working. They can eternally sail their boats on the sea and enjoy the sunlight forever. HOWEVER, the unpaid 600+ Billion Euros trigger “Economic Crisis” across the globe!
  • Kenneth R  •  Nyack, New York  •  1 month 3 days ago
    How is the Fed going to be able to unleash QE if the market keeps melting upwards. Such a quandry.
  • wjmdurham  •  1 month 2 days ago
    Cut off the free money until they sort out their mess. Force them to come to terms with the creditors or default and run their economy on the cash on the barrelhead system. They will have to pay gold, or other hard asset like antiquities ( many European nations have them), for their imports. They can take gold or other assets for their exports. I.E. they can live within their means. Gov't services? Unless they are willing to work like the successful nations do and pay their taxes they will not have any. Three weeks with the kids at home and they will want to try the real world workweek and work the full year like the rest of the world.
  • Roman  •  Irvine, California  •  1 month 3 days ago
    Market paring gains has nothing to do with greeks or europe. Market is back up to the top of its trading range and is due for a selloff. I do not believe it will close above 12,800, and more than likely will head back to 11,200. Unemployment is still high. Homes are still being foreclosed at record levels, and current oil prices are strangling any possible so called recovery. Big business has screwed the American working class. Get oil prices down to $60. a barrel for 6 months and you would see a change for the better. More people would have more money to go out and do things that they cannot afford right now.
  • DT  •  1 month 3 days ago
    Sss: What is your point here? Not only Greece, but also PIIGS is the problems, or better to say the entire EU, except Germany.
  • noname4me  •  1 month 3 days ago
    The problem will be solved on Monday, January 30, when Angela and Nicholas have a meeting. AGAIN.
  • Johnny Randal  •  Manchester, United Kingdom  •  1 month 3 days ago
    I will be honest as a fool......Euro Zone Crisis remain for as long as the debts is not paid .......Debts demand payment......No payment of Debts is Bad........Debts ruin many family......In case of Greece National DEBTS in Form of Bonds that never been paid and outstanding.........Non payment of it will will be worse....., It is not ruining the family but the entire family of Greece and the nation itself........It will create unemployment and economics slow down...........The short cut solution......Pay the Debts........Euro and Euro Zone economy problem will not be re-solve with out means of payment......Any non payment of debts will became the matter worse..........That is my Honest answer......
  • Pete  •  Urbana, Illinois  •  1 month 3 days ago
    Market do what they always do..Follow bad news!!!
  • Sss  •  1 month 3 days ago
    what is so hard to understand...greek and many countires have too much ..they don't understand what 'balance budget' means. ...nobody will lend you money..either taxpayers pay or cut services...and cut welfare programs it's as simple as that...won't get your votes..but money doesn't grow on trees. capital is 'limited' like taxpayers are limited.
  • kt  •  1 month 3 days ago
    today the stock market will rally because Fed wants it to rally, one good news and ten bad news will be enough to do the trick, cheers...
  • endless  •  1 month 3 days ago
    HELL IS COMING, GOOGLE "HELL". READ IT FOR WISDOM, KNOWLEDGE, & UNDERSTANDING. OF WHAT IS IN STORE FOR MANKIND.
    Satan is running out of time.
    Jesus is on His Way!..
  • The_Mick  •  Baltimore, Maryland  •  1 month 3 days ago
    There is really nothing new about the Greek debt negotiations and the insiders yesterday said they still "expected" an agreement. It seems like market manipulation for the large brokerages to be shouting good or bad news in unison over extremely minor deviations in negotiations.
  • Sss  •  1 month 3 days ago
    most corporations and individuals don't have unlimited credit line like the greek gov't or federal reserve. the gov't needs to act like a the average joe..not some entitity that can print or borrow with no limit credit card..
  • Sss  •  1 month 3 days ago
    taxes are so high,,people don't pay taxes. politicians wasting and giving welfare state to get elected..now the loan sharks wants it money back.
  • Sss  •  1 month 3 days ago
    that is what greek and many overbloated welfare states must do NOW or do later..cut wasteful and useless gov't overbloated weflare states frrom cradle or grave welfare programs and ponzi scheme public and private pension plans.---unpopular to unions but it's a must and painfull or force to cut later. and the president of greece will likely get kicked out of office. unpopular but must.
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