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TREND IN FOCUS: GBPUSD (D1)
- The GBPUSD’s score has moderated to a less but still bearish score of -1.71; intraday bullishness is counteracting more prevalent intraweek and intramonth bearishness.
- The consolidation from mid-March to late-June is viewed as a Bear Flag in context of the January breakdown from the 2009, 2010, and 2012 lows; a move into $1.4200/300 is anticipated over the coming months.
- Bullish divergence on the H4 Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) has afforded the GBPUSD the opportunity to consolidate; a lack of any material rebound above 1.5000 while the divergence clears is a bearish sign.
- Resistance has been found around the H4 21-SMA; an Inverted Hammer formed last period and a turn in H4 Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) would suggest that the next leg lower is beginning.
Read more: GBPCAD: Stay Away from Carney!
*Trend definitions: “uptrend” is defined as 8-MA>21-MA>55-MA; “downtrend” is defined as 8-MA<21-MA<55-MA; a “trendless” market occurs when continuity is absent.
*Scoring methodology: there are seven time frames, ascending from m15 (15-minutes) to W1 (one-week). In ascending order, each pair is assigned a value from -7 to +7 based on the trend apparent on the specified time frame (I.E. a m15 uptrend equals +1, whereas a H1 downtrend equals -3). If neither an uptrend nor downtrend is present, the trendless timeframe receives a score of 0. These points are totaled and the average is reported on the right. The strongest uptrend would achieve a score of +4.00, while the strongest downtrend would achieve a score of -4.00.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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