So Much Time, So Little Action In The $ES_F As Traders Wait For ECB, Jobs

Brian Shepard
April 2, 2014
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 So Much Time, So Little Action In The $ES F As Traders Wait For ECB, Jobs
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 So Much Time, So Little Action In The $ES F As Traders Wait For ECB, Jobs

Collective Intelligence!

So much time, so little action … so we are going to join the crowd and cut today short. It appears everyone is waiting on the ECB tomorrow morning … I think despite Friday’s jobs data, that had more to do with the midday doldrums. Once the price action slowed, the volume tanked and that just fed off itself – leaving the opening range to stare at again and again … ADP said private sector firms added 191k jobs in March, the most in three months - setting the stage for chatter to rise along with the NFP outlook. T’was 190k to 200k and now the chatter is up toward 225k.

Snippets: Today started with 170k ESM and 1.4k SPM traded on Globex, ESM trading range was 1877.00 – 1883.50. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1878.50 – 1869.30a before settling at 1877.80, up 13.2 handles.  The rotation continues … Europe Stocks Rise With Emerging Markets as Bonds Decline – Bloomberg

Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 2 handles higher to 1880.00 – 1879.20 before some sideways to higher trade, followed by a retest of the previous settle and a slow and quiet grind higher after that. And a seven-handle midday trading range was enjoyed by all – that dared to.

Here’s some clarification on what Bullard said about a further slowing of inflation possibly delaying the taper:

The afternoon session was sideways, teetering around the opening range for longer than I care to think … until the late, um, surge took out the shorts that sold the brief time spent below the open range midday. The (14:00) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a modest buy side imbalance as the futures stepped up to a new all-time high as the imbal grew to a huge $1 Bil to buy going into the cash close. On the cash close the futures traded 1883.70 area before settling at another new all-time closing high of 1882.90, up 5.1 handles. [DJIA] makes a new all-time high too – in front of the growing NFP data estimates. Guessing it will be another slow day tomorrow – setting the stage early? Also, we have to respect the sage tradition of buying the rumor and selling the news.

Eco calendar:

Putin calls to make amends? Saving face for the politicians!

1) ECB meeting / presser tomorrow morning – more QE rhetoric???

2) Employment situation / jobs data Friday NFP estimates growing from 195k to 220

3) Earnings season kicks off the following week, so traders will be listening for potential weather-related warnings …

Post FOMC decision presser > clarification / support >> The 1865 area was trading when Fed Chair Yellen’s comments rolled out … “economy needs EXTRAORDINARY support for SOME TIME”. Yellen also said: “I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policymakers at the Fed” “Economy Still ‘Considerably Short’ of Fed’s Goals” … “Fed Short of Reaching Employment and Inflation Goals” … “Recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans”. Again nothing new, as many have been thinking the recovery has had its bumps along the slow growth snail trail. Show us the jobs … can’t wait til Friday! Seems today’s price action won’t be surprised by good data, whether it comes in the form of PMI or the BLS.  **More support >> European QE hopium – we will know Thursday morning.