Here are Nate Silver's Final Four picks

Tony Manfred
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karl anthony towns
karl anthony towns

(Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Kentucky is the massive favorite. The undefeated Kentucky Wildcats are the overwhelming favorite to win the NCAA tournament, according to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model.

Silver gives Kentucky a 41% chance to win the tournament. No other team has better than an 11% chance.

To give you an idea of how big a favorite Kentucky is, last year's favorite to win the tournament (Florida) had a 14% chance of winning it all in Silver's model.

Here are the favorites to make the Final Four according to Silver's odds (check out his full numbers here):

  • Kentucky (No. 1 seed, Midwest) — 72% chance to make Final Four

  • Arizona (No. 2 seed, West) — 46% chance

  • Villanova (No. 1 seed, East) — 45% chance

  • Duke (No. 1 seed, South) — 32% chance

Unlike last year, when Silver's model had two No. 4 seeds as favorites to make the Final Four, he's going pretty much all chalk here. The only region to go against seeds is the West, where Silver has Arizona as the favorite over No. 1 seed Wisconsin.

Ken Pomeroy, the most respected statistics-centric college basketball commentator out there, also likes Arizona. His numbers have UofA as the second-best team in the entire tournament behind Kentucky.

Here's the bracket (click to enlarge, via CBS):

cbs sports 2015
cbs sports 2015

(CBS)

Here are the Vegas odds to win it all. Kentucky is the huge favorite:

  • Kentucky, 1/1

  • Duke, 13/2

  • Wisconsin, 13/2

  • Villanova, 8/1

  • Arizona, 12/1

  • Virginia, 17/1

  • Gonzaga, 22/1

  • North Carolina, 25/1

  • Iowa State, 35/1

  • Baylor, 40/1

  • Kansas, 40/1

  • Notre Dame, 50/1

  • Utah, 55/1

  • Maryland, 60/1

  • Michigan State, 60/1

  • Oklahoma, 60/1

  • SMU, 60/1

The tournament starts Thursday.

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