National Oilwell Varco's CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) Q3 2013 Earnings Conference Call October 24, 2013 9:00 AM ET

Executives

Loren Singletary - Vice President, Investor and Industry Relations

Pete Miller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Clay Williams - President and Chief Operating Officer

Jeremy Thigpen - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Jim Crandell - Cowen

Jeff Tillery - Tudor Pickering

Jud Bailey - ISI Group

Brad Handler - Jefferies

Stephen Gengaro - Sterne, Agee & Leach

Marshall Adkins - Raymond James

Operator

Welcome to the Third Quarter Financial Results Earnings Call. My name is Paulette, and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to Loren Singletary, Vice President of Investor and Industry Relations. Please go ahead.

Loren Singletary

Thank you, Paulette, and welcome everyone to the National Oilwell Varco third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today is Pete Miller, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Clay Williams, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jeremy Thigpen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin this discussion of National Oilwell Varco’s financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2013, please note that some of the statements we make during this call may contain forecasts, projections and estimates, including, but not limited to, comments about our outlook for the company’s business. These are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws based on limited information as of today, which is subject to change. They are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or later in the year. I refer you to the latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q National Oilwell Varco has on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the major risk factors affecting our business. Further information regarding these, as well as supplemental financial and operating information, maybe found within our press release on our website at www.nov.com or in our filings with the SEC.

(Operator Instructions)

Now, let me turn the call over to Pete.

Pete Miller

Thank you, Loren and good morning everyone. Earlier today, National Oilwell Varco announced third quarter 2013 earnings of $1.49 per share on revenues of $5.7 billion. Included in this number were pre-tax transaction charges of $10 million and a pre-tax gain of $102 million from a litigation settlement. Netting these out provided a net income of $573 million or $1.34 per fully diluted share. Jeremy will provide more color on these results later in the call.

Additionally, we reported new capital equipment orders for the quarter of $3.31 billion, resulting in a quarter ending record capital equipment backlog of $15.15 billion. This reflects a continued preference for the industry leading high technology products provided by National Oilwell Varco. New orders for the year have surpassed $9.5 billion. I would like to thank all of our employees worldwide for their continued dedication to excellence as we serve the oil and gas industry.

I will come back later in the call to add some color on our operations, but at this time, I will turn the call over to Clay.

Clay Williams

Thank you, Pete and good morning. We have long discussed four big trends that we expect to continue to shape National Oilwell Varco’s destiny over the next decade. One, the build out of a fleet of floating drilling rigs to explore and develop deepwater frontiers open by technology developments of the past 20 years; two, the blossoming of floating production systems, which we expect to produce most deepwater discoveries; three, the replacement of old jack-up rigs with better shape or new jack-up rigs; and four, the steady progression of unconventional shale technologies into new onshore plays overseas, which will continue to drive steady retooling of land rigs and spur demand for other oilfield technologies.

This morning, I would like to update you on what we see within each of these four, how they drove our third quarter results and how they are shaping our strategies. Demand for floating rigs has remained high underpinned by we believe strong driller economics on these investments, good day rates, low cost rigs, quick delivery and available financing. We sold another six deepwater drilling packages into newbuild projects during the third quarter bringing our total for the year to 22. Strong floater demand contributed to Rig Technology’s third quarter capital equipment orders of $3.3 billion, our second highest level ever. Our year-to-date orders totaled $9.5 billion through three quarters and we are not done. We expect fourth quarter orders to be good, maybe great, but down a little from Q3’s grand performance.

There are many new potential projects under discussion, but we know the holidays may interfere with contract signings and sometimes we just run out of calendar. Nevertheless, Q4 is off to a solid start and should wrap up an extraordinary year for orders. We recognize offshore rig orders are cyclical exhibiting periods of diminished demand from time-to-time, but we expect deepwater orders to remain good more years than not for the next several. The reason for this is that we see the opening of deepwater provinces by new technology as presenting an unprecedented opportunity to the oil and gas industry, one that requires the unique sophisticated drilling tools, National Oilwell Varco and our shipyard partners provide. The engine driving this demand, the possibility of monetizing billions of barrels of oil beneath the world’s deepest oceans is powerful. Technology has literally opened up two-thirds of the planet to oil and gas exploration, which requires a substantial fleet of floating drilling rigs.

This leads me to the second major trend. Once oil companies discover deepwater hydrocarbons, they will produce these and we believe floating production systems will emerge as a preferred method in most deepwater basins. Over the past few years, we have invested in unique products required for floating production systems, including flexible risers, turret mooring systems, specialized deck machinery pumps, sand handling and product equipment and composite piping solutions. Category leading products, superb project management skills and close shipyard relationships position NOV extraordinarily well to emerge as a preferred supplier of floating production solutions. FPSO construction projects have historically had a pretty bad record. Most, in fact nearly all, are late and over budget. Our strategy is to bring configurable designs and modern manufacturing techniques to this industry analogous to what we have done successfully in the drilling rig construction world.

We are making steady progress. Many projects began to translate into orders this year. In fact, our APL turret mooring business expects to post record orders this year. Project margins are rising modestly as we work to standardize component designs to reduce engineering and commercial risk. Additionally, we will mark the startup of our new flexibles plant in Brazil this quarter, which will lead our NKT Flexibles business to new records in the future. While it will take time to develop, we believe that FPSOs will create the next major growth lag for National Oilwell Varco.

The third trend affecting National Oilwell Varco jack-up rig demand has been white hot lately as operators seek to replace aging fleets, 54% of the marketed jack-up fleet is more than 30 years old and as NOCs in Mexico, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere seek to ramp shallow water production to offset onshore production declines. In the third quarter, we sold 13 jack-up packages bringing our total so far this year to 42 jack-ups. We expect the fourth quarter demand will remain very strong as well to complete a truly brilliant year for jack-up demand. Generally, we see strong demand looking to establish yards in Singapore, but Chinese yards are pursuing projects aggressively, including offering attractive financing and entrepreneurs are signing up with them.

The fourth major trend driving our fortunes at National Oilwell Varco is the proliferation of technologies enabling unconventional shale production. Shale technologies were more accurately unconventional technologies, because these are techniques being applied to enhance production from all sorts of rocks are positive for virtually everything NOV does and sells. Profitable, unconventional developments require new modern rigs capable of drilling horizontally. Specialized premium drill pipe which must be coated and carefully inspected, mud motors and bips [ph] are needed to drill horizontally. Frac leads full line equipment, frac heads, coiled tubing and coiled tubing units are all needed to hydraulically stimulate on conventional reservoirs. Composite tubing encoded and thoroughly inspected OCTG is required to transport, produce fluids, drill cuttings and water and waste management technologies are applied to minimize environmental impact. NOV is the leading provider of almost all the major hardware and technology required for unconventional shale success and as we survey our products and services in this round we see two unconventional production markets at different stages of evolution. First North America the birth place of unconventional shale technologies appears to be evolving most rapidly towards a more industrial efficiency based approach. Reproductivity and well cost management are top of mind for EMP customers and while much that NOV does enhances and enables such efficiencies this isn't 100% good news for us or our oil field service peers. By that I mean the EMP customers are focusing on supply chain management reprice for their drilling programs.

A few years ago dozens of speculative shale plays were being probed today these are coal lessening down to a handful to a handful of the most profitable. So even in a flat rig count environment the most active basins steadily become more competitive as oil fields service company reposition our assets and by their way into the game in this handful through discounting and the least active basins become more competitive as companies get desperate and discount the (indiscernible). The winning strategy in this tonight fight must therefore focus on adding value, i.e. reducing well cost, increasing productivity, enhancing efficiency. NOV seeks to provide differentiated products and services that do just that and our unique positioning enables us to drive value for our customers throughout the oil field food chain.

Much that we make is consumed at a steady rate by rigs and frac fleets operating 24x7 near red line RPMs in this place. Our outlook for North America in 2014 is cautiously positive. Given the strong oil driven wellhead cash flows to EMP companies and the relatively low reinvestment rates of the past year. If oil remains near $100 we believe we will see more spanning in 2014 and NOV is well positioned to enjoy an activity uptick in North America. This thesis should be helped by a large inventory of drill sites across North America with minimal geologic risk and steadily rising take away capacity which tends to enhance producer cash flow at the wellhead.

The second major shale market encompasses basically the rest of the world outside North America. Here is where infrastructure is less developed, we view this market as considerably less evolved with tremendous potential and work to be done that will likely span a generation. It is not coincidental that the shale revolution was born on the continent with 2/3rds of the world’s working rigs and the highest level of geologic understanding. Shale plays unconventional plays are by definition marginally economic requiring established efficient oil services infrastructure capable of earthing a well the cost of which is marginally exceeded by the value of the hydrocarbons produced from it at some reasonable expected commodity price.

Carrying the unconventional shale style of play build on finely tuned well construction cost into regions with less developed oil field infrastructure will predictably count our headwinds and delays after all it took the industry here in Texas a couple of decades to figure it out. I will submit that one of the most interesting economic opportunities in this scenario would be for a company that actually builds out oilfields services infrastructure. A company like NOV, hunger for infrastructure for new modern rigs and drill pipes and downhole tools help fuel our third quarter orders and results. Land rig sales jumped with more than two dozen sold in the quarter almost all overseas and most going into more sophisticated horizontal drilling applications and pulling unconventional techniques. In particular we saw strong demand from Latin America where Mexico seeking to add new modern land rigs and where Argentina has lifted duties on rig imports for the next several months. The Middle-East, Russia and the Fareast also saw strong demand for land rigs. Our overseas expansion projects continued to strengthen our capabilities as we make strategic investments in manufacturing a service infrastructure and promising international markets.

NOV is uniquely positioned to provide the tools required to bring the shale revolution to these new areas, an opportunity that we remain extremely excited about. The evolution of the vast international shale market will shape NOV’s fortunes for decades. Last quarter, we talked about some of delivery challenges we face in our Rig Technology segment. We are making good progress against these and saw margins improve slightly, but we continue to wrestle with very high volumes moving through our system and with record levels of installation and commissioning activity in shipyards.

Strong orders continue to load up our manufacturing plants filling up the capacity we have been adding aggressively, which requires we continue to outsource more and to spend a little more than we would like to expedite equipment. As a consequence, we foresee challenges continuing, but expect steady progress quarter-by-quarter. We have also made progress on pricing and commercial terms on new projects flowing into the backlog although it will be a while before consolidated segment margins reflect this. Notably, we continue to face a very soft market for pressure pumping equipment in North America and rising FPSO product sales are somewhat dilutive to the segment’s EBIT margin.

Reviewing our progress, I am again reminded of how very fortunate we are to have such talented professionals at work executing our business. Our Rig Technology segment by itself would generate over $11 billion in revenues this year at EBIT margins north of 20%. This is nearly double the size of all of NOV when we first merge in 2005 and would rank midway through last year’s Fortune 500 list with far better than average profitability of most public companies. This accomplishment would not be possible without an extraordinarily talented team and we are grateful for the tremendous results that they and all NOV employees produce. Many, many thanks to all of you.

Now, I am going to turn it over to Jeremy for a more detailed review of the third quarter.

Jeremy Thigpen

Thanks Clay. National Oilwell Varco generated earnings of $1.49 per fully diluted share in the third quarter of 2013 on $5.7 billion in revenues, excluding $10 million in pre-tax transaction charges and $102 million in pre-tax gains resulting from the settlement of an outstanding legal claim. Third quarter 2013 earnings were $1.34 per fully diluted share, up $0.01 per share from the second quarter 2013 and down $0.18 per share or 12% from the third quarter of 2012.

Sales of $5.7 billion improved 2% sequentially largely driven by resumption of activity in Canada post breakup and grew 7% year-over-year despite a 3% year-over-year reduction in the number of drilling rigs worldwide. Excluding transaction charges from all periods and the gains resulting from the outstanding legal claim in the third quarter of 2013, operating profit for the quarter was $853 million, up 3% sequentially and down 10% from the third quarter of last year. Operating margins on this basis were 15% for the third quarter 2013 compared to 14.7% for the second quarter of 2013 and 17.8% for the third quarter of last year. Sequentially, operating profit flow through our leverage with 31%.

Now let’s turn to our segment operating results. The Rig Technology segment generated revenues of $2.8 billion in the third quarter, flat sequentially and up 12% compared to the third quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the segment was $606 million and operating margins were 21.3%, up 60 basis points from the prior quarter. On the Q2 conference call, we expected Rig Tech revenues to decrease in the low single-digit percentage range as continued declines in the sale of intervention and stimulation equipment and somewhat lower project revenues would more than offset continued growth in our aftermarket business.

Well as expected, revenues for intervention and stimulation equipment declined an additional 13% sequentially. However, our Q3 Rig Tech revenues were slightly improved from Q2 as revenues out of backlog, which were flat at $2.1 billion and individual component sales both outperformed our expectations and albeit at a slightly slower pace, which was simply a function timing. Our aftermarket business continued to grow to a new quarterly record of $627 million which represented 22% of total Rig Tech revenues in the quarter. Needless to say, we are excited by the fact that our aftermarket business continues to grow both in total dollars and as a percentage of our total Rig Tech revenues.

Turning to Rig Tech margins, we were pleased to see the 60 basis point sequential uplift as we had successfully avoided some, but not all but the cost overruns that impacted us in Q1 and Q2. Still we continue to face the same three challenges that we detailed in the Q2 conference call, including one, the strength on our supply chain; two, product mix with continuing declines in our North American land-related businesses; and three, the incremental expenses associated with numerous strategic growth initiatives and capacity expansions. However, with each passing quarter, we have become increasingly more confident that we are taking the appropriate steps in each area to further expand our already industry leading margins.

From a supply chain standpoint, everyone is working hard to bring our new manufacturing capacity online which will ultimately lead to operational efficiencies. However it's important to remember that we’re continuing to secure orders at a very rapid pace, as Clay mentioned this year alone we have already secured 22 floaters and 42 jackups. It's also important to remember that the lead time for jackups is 6 to 8 months shorter than the lead time for floaters which applies additional pressure on our plants.

Still with our new capacity and our skilled and dedicated team of employees we have complete confidence that we’re up for the challenge. From a product mix standpoint we do not expect to see any near term meaningful orders for new frac spreads, coiled tubing units or land rigs in the North America market but we know that our customers are utilizing and therefore consuming their existing equipment and we will ultimately need to return to us for repairs or the complete replacements.

From an expense standpoint many of our large strategic growth initiatives and capacity expansion are nearing completion which will help to elevate some of our recent margin pressures but we still have some large projects that have yet to conclude including the new flexible pipe manufacturing facility in Brazil, a new riser manufacturing facility in Brazil and a new rig building facility in Russia that will all carry over into 2014.

Additional we will likely add to our footprint in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the outlook for that market remains very positive and local content requirements are every increasing. And well not previously Mitch [ph] referenced as one of our three challenges to expanding margins the new contractual terms that we implemented in Q2 for our offshore equipment component and packages will overtime help us to expand margins as revenues from this new higher priced backlog begin to start flowing out later next year.

So overall we’re clearly moving in the right direction but it will take some time to return our margins to the 24% level that we have established as our target for the same.

Now let’s transition to the Q3 capital equipment orders and our resulting backlog. As evidenced by the 3.3 billion in new orders industry demand for floaters and jackups remain very strong and our customers continue to recognize National Oilwell Varco for our industry leading technology, our proven track record of delivering projects on time and our unmatched ability to support our equipment globally.

For the quarter we booked five drill ships, one semi and 13 jackups. Of the six floaters that we booked in Q3 we secured the subsea BOP stacks on four plus two spare stacks and of the 13 total jackups that we booked in Q3 we secured five of the stacks. In addition to the strong orders offshore we awarded a number of international land rig packages both drilling and work over destined for Mexico, Argentina, the UAE, Indonesia and Australia. Rounding out the order intake story we secured a number of sizeable orders for our NKT products including flowline and riser reconfirming our belief that we are still on pace to book roughly 1 billion in flexibles and new floating production equipment for the year.

All of these new orders were partly offset by revenues out of backlog of almost 2.1 billion resulting in a book to bill of almost 1.6 times and another record quarter ending backlog of 15.2 billion which was up 9% from Q2 which by the way was a previous record and up 30% year-over-year.

Off the total backlog approximately 92% is offshore and 94% is destined for international markets. We expect a little over 2 billion to flow out of backlog in Q4. Looking into the fourth quarter of 2013 we expect orders for new offshore drilling equipment packages and floating production equipment to remain strong and we hope to see continued demand for new land drilling rigs in Latin America and the Middle-East and perhaps some work over rigs in Russia. Well we do not yet know if we will see a fourth consecutive quarter of new orders above 3 billion we have enjoyed a very strong start to the quarter and we’re in the middle of some very encouraging and constructive discussions that could soon materialize into new orders. However as you all well know timing is everything, if we do not receive the signed contract and the down payment by December 31 we will not book it in this quarter.

As of now we’re planning for rig technology revenues to increase in the mid-single digit percentage range as continued declines and the sale of intervention and stimulation equipment will be more than offset by an increase in land related revenue associated with our Q3 bookings. Higher offshore project related revenues as we help the shipyards to get back on schedule and continued growth in our aftermarket business.

And although we realize some slight improvements in Q3 we remain cautious about Q4 margins sticking to our previous guidance of 20% to 21%. As Q4 is expected to be the busiest quarter for installation and commissioning work in the history of NOV.

Transitioning to petroleum services and supplies the segment posted revenues of 1.8 billion up 3% sequentially and up 5% year-over-year. Operating profit improved 7% sequentially to 324 million and operating margins were 17.9% up 50 basis points from the second quarter of 2013.

On the Q2 call we guided the revenues in this segment to improve in the low to mid single-digit percentage range, primarily driven by increasing activity in Canada as it rebounded from breakout. We also forecasted margins to remain relatively flat as many of our groups were – are still actively integrating acquisitions that were consummated late last year or earlier this year. Well, as it turned out, our revenue guidance was spot on. However, the source of the revenue was somewhat surprising. As expected, Canada was the primary driver of the improvement, but we were pleased to finally experience some growth in the U.S. market, which posted an 8% sequential gain.

From a margin perspective, the quarter played out a little better than expected as well with 33% leverage or flow-through on the 3% sequential increase in revenue. As we entered the fourth quarter 2013, we believe Petroleum Services & Supplies segment sales will improve in the low to mid single-digit percentage range as Canada drilling activity reaches the seasonal highs and we benefited from some end-of-year project sales into international markets. We believe that growth in these regions will be partially offset by a U.S. market that typically slows during the holiday season. Still since we have right-sized our businesses in this segment, we expect margins to move modestly higher on the incremental revenue.

The Distribution & Transmission segment posted revenues of $1.3 billion, up almost 4% sequentially and up 2% compared to Q3 of last year. Operating profit dollars improved 10% sequentially to $78 million and were flat as compared to Q3 of 2012. And operating margins improved 30 basis points from Q2 to 5.8%. Like PS&S, we forecasted revenue within the Distribution & Transmission segment to improve in the low to mid single-digit percentage range, again primarily driven by increasing activity in Canada. This occurred as expected. However, we were very pleased to see continued growth in our international operations, which posted a 13% sequential improvement on top of the 9% gain that we posted from Q1 to Q2. We also suggested that segment margins would likely remain fairly flat. However, the incremental volumes help margins to expand in Q3 to 5.8%.

Looking into the fourth of 2013, we expect Distribution & Transmission group revenues to decline in the low single-digit percentage range as increasing activity in Canada will be more than offset by reductions in the U.S. where the holiday season will result in fewer billing days in the quarter. As a result of the slightly lower revenues, we will likely experience some margin erosion as well in Q4.

On the topic of distribution, I would like to briefly cover two important and exciting topics. First, the integration of Wilson and CE Franklin is progressing exceptionally well with facility consolidations and ERP implementations proceeding as planned. Second on September 24, we announced that company’s Board of Directors had authorized management to explore a plan to spin-off NOV’s distribution business from the remainder of the company creating two standalone publicly traded corporations.

As Pete mentioned in the press release, we believe that company’s distribution business now has the size and scale to operate as the standalone world-class distribution company. And as the standalone entity, we believe that distribution will be better positioned for future growth, because one, it can more aggressively pursue opportunities outside of the upstream oil and gas base; two, it will not be competing for capital with higher margin, higher return businesses within NOV; and three, the separation will remove any conflicts that currently exit between distribution and NOV’s manufacturing competitors, which will open up opportunities to sell products to NOV’s competitors and to market those competitors’ products through its distribution network.

In addition to being a great opportunity for the distribution business, we also believe that the proposed spin will help to highlight the remaining portion of NOV as a technology and manufacturing company that is focused on designing, manufacturing, delivering and then inspecting servicing and supporting the most advanced, robust and reliable equipment in the industry. Needless to say, we are excited about the opportunities for both businesses. If approved, we would expect to close the transaction in the second quarter of 2014.

Now, let’s turn to National Oilwell Varco’s consolidated third quarter 2013 income statement. Gross margins improved 20 basis points sequentially to 23.8%, SG&A increased $8 million sequentially, but as a percentage of revenue, SG&A remained unchanged from Q2 at 8.8%. Transaction costs primarily related to the Robbins & Myers acquisition totaled $10 million in the quarter, which were more than offset by $102 million gain associated with the settlement of some outstanding litigation.

Interest expense in the quarter declined $4 million sequentially to $26 million largely attributable to the launching of our commercial paper program. Due to our strong financial condition, favorable market outlook, our leading market position and a track record of solid execution, we were able to secure top ratings from both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, which enabled us to meaningfully reduce our already low borrowing cost through the conversion of existing bank debt to commercial paper. Equity income in our Voest-Alpine JV was $13 million down 2 million sequentially as the plant was temporarily shut down for it's annually scheduled maintenance. We expect equity income for the JV to decline even further in Q4 as demand for drill pipe and therefore green tube in the U.S. will continue to be somewhat needed. Other expense for the quarter was 15 million which represented a 28 million delta sequentially but is more consistent with historical trends. The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 30.8% which was just slightly lower than Q2. Unallocated expenses and eliminations on our supplemental segment schedule was 155 million in the third quarter except 19 million sequentially on higher volumes of inter-segment business. Depreciation and amortization was 191 million up 1 million from second quarter and EBITDA excluding transaction charges and the gains and the legal settlement was 1 billion or 18.4% of sales.

Turning to the balance sheet, National Oilwell Varco September 30, 2013 balance sheet employed working capital, excluding cash and debt of 7.2 billion let down 78 million from the second quarter as wait for the second consecutive quarter realize the slight sequential reduction in inventory. As importantly we also experienced a turn-around in customer financing which improved by 378 million sequentially as prepayments and milestone invoicing on major projects outpaced cost incurred. Current and long term debt net of cash was 1 billion at the end of the quarter versus 1.8 billion at the end of the second quarter. With 3.7 billion in debt offset by 2.7 billion in cash, off the 2.7 billion in cash only 11% of the balance was in the U.S. at September 30.

Cash flow from operations was $1 billion for the third quarter which was an all-time quarterly record, the past in the old record of 912 million which was in Q2 of 2011. During the quarter we paid down debt by 371 million, made cash tax payments of 218 million, made dividend payments totaling 111 million and we spent a 164 million in CapEx bringing our year-to-date CapEx spending to 484 million. We expect CapEx spend to increase slightly in Q4 to finish the year just under 700 million in total. Now let me turn it back to Pete.

Pete Miller

Thanks Jeremy and you know I think both Clay and Jeremy have really given you a very comprehensive overview of both our financials and our operational situation so I’m just going to make a couple of really brief comments. First you know as you take a look at a catalyst that I think you’re going to project out over the next two or three years. You know I keep my eye on a couple of international plays I think number one will be Russia, I think the Russians are going to be very aggressively doing things in the next few years. We have felt that way for a long time and the consequence of that is that we started building a plant over in Russia and we’re going to be prepared to be able to really take advantage of that as we move into the latter half of 2014 and the early part of 2015. I think another area that’s going to very exciting, certainly you should keep your eye on it will be Mexico. You have the changeable laws down there, I think as we move into the rest of the year you will have a constitutional amendment hopefully and then you will have the laws that will come out in the first quarter. I think that’s going to really open up a tremendous area for a lot of the service companies and in particular National Oilwell Varc. So those are two areas I keep eye on, third one for us and Clay mentioned in his comments it's not, I think as you take a look at John and especially the aggressiveness of the shipyards over there we’re uniquely positioned to be able to take advantage of that and to help those shipyards and add the legitimacy that they need to be able to go out and increase the business. I think that’s going to be a very positive catalyst force as we continue to move forward and then finally the old standby is Brazil. You know Brazil is very important to us today but I think we’re going to move into another plateau or not plateau but another tier if you will which is going to be the production and FPSO and the flexibles. So as we bring our flexible plant online as we take a look at some of these different engineering ideas we have on FPSOs as Clay mentioned earlier I think Brazil is going to be a very, very positive area for us so if I’m looking into the future I’m really keeping my eyes on those. I can go on, I can talk about the Middle-East, I could talk about Gulf Coast of Africa but the point is there is going to be a lot of international catalyst out there I believe they are going to help drive our business over the next few years.

So with those brief comments, Paula I would like to open it up to questions that any of our listeners might have.

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