The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
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Today's Highlight: Natural gas has now triggered two buy signals. This point in the pattern should not hesitate if the rally is valid.
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's bounce to the 84.45 buy signal had failed to trigger. Thursday's reaction down to 83.54 left a gap outstanding that can attract price back up to it.
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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Thursday's bounce back to 1.2955 resistance was an inside day compared to Wednesday's wide range. A retest of the lows cannot be discounted without also recovering Wednesday's 1.3000 high.
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Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
An overnight bounce into Thursday's open retraced 61.8% of Wednesday's drop from 1414.00, having held 1357.70 support. Above 1398.50 would likely test 1409.00, where any higher close would suggest a much bigger corrective bounce was underway.
May Contract SI; (SLV)
Thursday's ranging consolidated the recent tests of the 23.25 buy signal, and still left outstanding the recent opening low's gap.
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Fresh lows overnight probed the decline's 142-19 target down to 149-09. Despite recovering intraday, fresh post-open lows tested 142-16. The opportunity for bottoming has almost disappeared entirely. The bond is always vulnerable to steep counter-trend spikes into the weekend, but it's too late to start a credible rally.
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Having failed to hold 94.00 support, fresh lows tested 92.25 Thursday. A reaction up through the morning tested retested 94.00 as resistance, and held. Extending higher immediately may be the only way to overcome the attraction back down to Thursday's 92.85 gap.
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Having consolidated its recovery to 4.16, Thursday needed to resume the rally without much delay. The EAI report was absorbed and price did trend up to fresh highs testing 4.25. Pullbacks must now hold 4.16 to maintain the rally's momentum.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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- Natural gas