When NFP Disappoints, Just ‘STFU’ And ‘STFR’

Brian Shepard
April 4, 2014
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 When NFP Disappoints, Just ‘STFU’ And ‘STFR’
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 When NFP Disappoints, Just ‘STFU’ And ‘STFR’

Collective Intelligence!

So much action in so little time; therefore we are going to join the crowd and STFR.

Regarding the employment situation, the NFP data was a bit light of consensus and well shy of the hopefully optimistic whisper number. Posted y’day: william_blount (07:57) when BOTH CAMPS want it to go down it goes down, when both camps want it to go up it goes up … AND THEN THEY DUKE IT OUT AT A KEY INFLECTION PRICE. Do you remember what really runs the markets? Howzabout – Greed and Fear!

Snippets: A little sumthin to cheer about premarket: German Factory Orders Rose in February as Growth Accelerated – February Manufacturing Orders Rise 0.6% From Previous Month http://bloom.bg/PyqW8V

Employers in the U.S. picked up the pace of hiring in March for a third month as the economy began to emerge from a weather-related setback, economists project a report will show today. Payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, the most since November, after a 175,000 gain in February, according to the median forecast of 90 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The jobless rate may have fallen to 6.6 percent, matching the lowest level since October 2008.

stockmarketwhisperer (08:09) ok.. so we missed expectations, nfp is trending down in 2014, and market is worth 18x earnings when all the high beta stocks have been slaughtered with a rising index? Is it just me? or does that seem like a crap fundamental setup to trust All-Time Highs? stephen_c (08:10) logic doesn’t count trade what you see!!

Today started with 246k ESM traded on Globex, ESM trading range was 1892.50 – 1883.75. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1875.70 – 1887.00 before settling at 1883.00 up 0.1  handles. Globex was trading 1886 area at 7:30 when the unemployment rate held at 6.7% and the NFP checked in at 192k with mid range exp was 195k with pre-announcement whispers up to 225k. The one minute bar showed a low of 1885.00 up to 1890.00 before topping out at 1892.00. This was followed by back and filling to 1888.50 area then back up to 1892 area as the RTH’s was about to open. In the pre-market only 246k mini’s traded which is pretty light for the jobs data Friday.

Today’s RTH’s pit session gapped 8.5 handles higher to 1891.00 – 1891.80, traded an early high of 1892.00 and almost bled out on the ensuing gap and crap. The [SPX] dropped 10 handles while the [NDX] led the decline – breaking down 57 handles in 20 minutes before bouncing 34 handles and flopping back again to a series of lower lows – once again dragging the indices with throughout the day.

Nittany (09:40) For us novices what causes these divergences in NQ vs. ES? william_blount GREED, rolling out of big tech, high flyers — into old skool, happened in march april of 1983 as well parker_schwartz  beta, someone definitely blowing up in momo world, stephen NL high multiple stocks getting tossed and mts2  rotation.

mts2 (10:43) Top Notch these very extreme times … on the first pass the nq held just above the 3563 area, pit low 3565 – if the bulls defend … the nq could potentially target a high of 3624. However, I remain pessimistic – as long as the bounces continue to be sold. The next support in the S&P 1870-69.50 area with an overall downside objective of 1852-50.00 area. Roger 10:49) ES down 20 handles from the highs.

The afternoon session was sideways to lower, (13:10) 30 handles off the high. 1865.50 provided the afternoon floor as volume dried up, the bounce held below 1863 area. The (14:00) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a small $120M sell side imbalance and stepped up to $250M and jumped to $645M to sell going into the cash close. On the cash close the futures traded 1858.60 area before settling at 1860.10.00, down 22.9 handles, while the [NDX] led, down 93 handles and the [DJIA] closed down 160 points while the VIX went out 13.96, up only 0.59 ticks on the day … still complacent?

Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

[AA] officially kicks off earnings season on Tuesday. Traders will continue to listen for potential weather-related warnings … Thus far, the preannouncements have been surprisingly light.

This is a MUST SEE  >  Putin unleashed in Fallon style http://bit.ly/1jFLcRh

Thursday > PITBULL (08:59) charles schwab statement on hft comments that 95% of orders are cancelled – nice business model which will be ending.  Also, admit HFT is a “growing cancer”…  [SCHW] Statement on High-Frequency Trading http://yhoo.it/1lro9cU