NFP, the granddaddy of economic figures, and our Mikey P indicator
Up, down and all around she goes, where she stops will be dependent on the pending jobs data. Oh sure, some circles are talking about the BOE and ECB decisions tomorrow morning, but they don’t call the employment figures the granddaddy for no reason. Last month’s huge miss in the jobs data was part of the small flurry of data/news that pushed the global equities off their lofty perch. China, emerging markets contagion, the disappointing PMI data as well as a number of inconsistent/soft economic releases all had a hand in the reversal of fortunes. The corporate earnings have done little to temper concerns that morphed into margin calls to open this week’s trading. The question now is – have we come too far, too fast? Oh, and of course what the NFP number will be! The whisper number is 160/165k, but shush – don’t tell anyone.
Today’s snippets: Tom DeMark Tells CNBC: U.S. Stocks May ‘Unravel Quickly’ http://bloom.bg/1b2xyqj ** The Mikey_P indicator a very good jobs data analysis last month … Mikey_P (08:41) I will have my “temp company” survey tomorrow once payroll is finished today. We track heads at 300+ locations, mostly light industrial temps. (hirings). Use a four week moving average. It’s just my business and only in 21 states, but hey, info is info, use it or toss it; worked last month. Yes, it did! **Also, chatter big buyer in tech, QQQ — CBOE players willing to buy calls and they are selling puts – not huge size, just decent / an option group – leaning on the yen – If yen does not go negative on the day = possible retest of the lows in the spoos – geese of a feather flock together .… The security surrounding the Olympic Games continues to hit the airwaves – media hype? Just wait till they start pounding the drums about the Yellin testimony next week. And yes, the new Fed chairwoman speaks quite well. ***Lastly, don’t miss the CES preliminary benchmark announcement http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesprelbmk.htm
Today started with 373k ESH and 2.1k SPH traded on Globex, ESH trading range was 1734.25 – 1746.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1753.00 – 1738.80 before settling at 1743.70, up 10.9 handles. The ADP checked in, 175k below expectations of 180k. Barry (08:14) I show today’s RTH Pivot at /ES 1745.42 so watching that closely
Today’s RTH’s, pit session, opened fractionally lower at 1743.00 – 1743.50, traded a new weekly low (by a couple of ticks) of 1732.20 before stepping higher through the midday, printing 1750.20 – shy of yesterday’s high of 1753.00 and well below Monday’s high of 1778.90. The first 15 minutes saw a 1747.00 to 1741.80 range as the bulls failed to mount any upside momentum following yesterday’s late-day swoon near the close – even as yesterday’s closing imbalance showed 1.9 billion to buy. jack_broz (09:16:24): very erratic markets (SP too); feel very thin. mixed. we’ll FAVOR sell side in bonds w/134.00 resis & 10YR 126.025 (see yesterday’s snippets below). Donald (09:25) That is 17 points in 20 minutes. Goodbye Tuesday … Mikey_P (09:29) Is the Monday gap fill closed? Yep!
We posted this yesterday: Ya think … elway (15:16) horrible close, need a gap down tomorrow below monday’s low cleanse the tape – too many buy the dip muppets today …
Well, they did manage to close Monday’s gap / weekly low and the bulls also managed to rip the face off any late to the party bears who may have sold in the hole on this morning’s break to 1732.20 new weekly low.
Kathy lunch recording: http://bit.ly/1eqWSGI
The volume was running at the lowest levels of the week, yet another snowstorm … Check out my neighbor’s new snowblower – Now I gotta move http://bit.ly/1b2WGgk Anyway, the S&P was holding above 1746 area the MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, showed a moderate buy of $315M and continued to grow to SPX MOC $1billion to BUY – in a matter of 2 mins – the same person hit me with $330mil to buy and then $1 bil to buy. And another bad close followed, the futures traded 1746.30 area on the cash close before settling at 1744.00, up 0.3 handles on the close. Note: Yesterday’s imbalance showed $1.9 bil to buy, but $800M was paired off well before the 3:00 bell.
BOE rate decision 6:00 am CT, ECB rate decision 6:45 CT presser 7:30 CT. chatter no action by either BOE or ECB – any policy shift will likely be marginal.
Coming events: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
*Earnings pre-mkt: [AAP], [AET], [AINV], [CMI], Daimler, [DNKN], [DO], [FOX], [GM], [K], [KKR], [MWW], [NILE], [NYT], [ODFL], [OZM], [PENN], [PM], [PPL], [PRGO], [SALE], [SEE], [SMG], [Sony], [TDC], [TEVA], [USG], [VMC], Vodafone
Snippets posted yesterday: Gaecke Report ▪ The SP500 has hit the -3.50 level which indicates a major market bottom (Tuesday’s 1732.50 low) (last -3.50 signal was in 6/24/13 for a return of 6.67%) ▪ SP500 -3.50 signals are closed at the +1.00 level instead of the 0-Line ▪ Typically, -3.50 signals come in pairs, so it is possible to retest the -3.50 level in the next 1-2 days ▪ The SP500 cash +1.00 level is at 1867.00 ▪ Remember that this +1.00 level will adjust as the signal matures. **Also, Lowry – similar message to Friday, with emphasis now on: looking for buying demand to suggest a sustainable bottom is in place. jack_broz (10:22) (remember yesterday?) the last two days somebody has bought 140,000 march 125 puts. thats very bearish. jack_broz (10:43) more options: bought 50,000 125.16 puts also today (tyh) we are approaching a net short of 50,000 futures.
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