The "No Budget, No Pay" provision that GOP leaders insisted be part of a debt ceiling suspension could backfire on House Republicans, according to crucial new information from POLITICO's Ben White.
The move was largely interpreted as a way to force Senate Democrats' hand on a budget.
The House GOP has had various incarnations of the Ryan budget for several years, while Democrats have remained comfortable extending the last budget passed at the beginning of President Obama's term.
But here's how the GOP's move — which would defer salaries to Senators and members of the House of Representatives until a budget passes each chamber — could backfire.
As it turns out, the Senate not only has the votes for the budget, they also have an outstandingly easy path to passage. Gugenheim Securities' Chris Krueger told POLITICO's White that the Senate budget process is something of a breeze:
Total debate time on the Senate budget is capped at 50 hours (no filibusters), which is then followed by a daylong ‘vote-a-rama.’ The Senate budget only needs 50 votes to pass, provided Vice President Biden breaks the tie. There are 55 Democratic votes.
However, the House of Representatives has a much narrower path to pass even the Ryan budget. There remains the deadline of April 15, and the vote will be tight. Kreuger pointed out the following stats:
- There are a number of blue-state Republicans who might not vote for a budget that "austere" — 15 in districts Obama won in 2012.
- There are a number of conservatives who may not vote for the budget because it's not austere enough — 14 Republicans voted against the continuing resolution as a rejection of the current fiscal trajectory.
- There are 231 House Republicans and Boehner can lose only 15.
"No Budget, No Pay" begins on April 15 if both chambers have not passed a budget.
The breezy Senate process and the difficult House process means that it's very possible that in fact the GOP will trip their own trap on April 15, when "No Budget, No Pay" kicks in.
Check out Morning Money for the full scoop >
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