In a No Tapering World, Banks Love Emerging Markets

ETF Trends

Thanks to a strong flash reading of China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for September, some marquee emerging markets ETFs notched gains Monday even as U.S. stocks finished the day lower. Despite giving back some of their post-no tapering announcement gains from last Wednesday, emerging markets ETFs, broadly speaking, have improved noticeably in recent weeks and global banks are growing progressively more bullish on previously beaten-up developing economies.

Citing the Fed’s decision not to alter its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program, JPMorgan Chase upgraded stocks in Peru, South Africa and Turkey, saying emerging markets will rally into year-end, reports Maria Levitov for Bloomberg.

JP Morgan upgraded Turkey and Peru to overweight, joining Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan while South Africa was raised to to neutral, according to Bloomberg. JPMorgan’s decision to upgrade Peru, Turkey and South Africa, three of the most severely repudiated emerging markets this year, jibes with the view of some other global banks. Last week, Societe Generale said that although global emerging markets are still “digesting this massive Fed policy surprise,” it is time to “turn tactically bullish” on developing economies. [Sunny Days for EM ETFs as Fed Resists Tapering Temptation]

“Our four-factor econometric regression model for Turkey is suggesting 7% upside potential by year end; (ix) Turkey trades at a discount once again versus GEM on sector-adjusted forward earnings and Turkish banks are cheap versus EMEA peers; and (x) there is now 13% potential upside for Turkish stocks to Credit Suisse target prices,” according to a Credit Suisse note posted by Barron’s.

Regarding Turkey, stocks there plunged in the second quarter due to political instability and a weak currency, but the iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market ETF (TUR) has surged nearly 13% in the past month. Despite that run, Turkish stocks trade at valuations that are below their own historical averages and the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. [On Valuation, Emerging Europe ETF Looks Alluring]

As for JPMorgan’s upgrades of Peru and South Africa, that could be taken as a positive sign for precious metals because both countries are major gold producers. Not only that, but Peru is the world’s largest silver producer while South Africa is the largest platinum producer and the second-largest palladium producer.

The risk there is obvious: The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU) and the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) are correlated to some degree to precious metals prices. EZA is up 9.3% in the past month while EPU is down 2.3%. [The South Africa ETF Dichotomy]

“The Fed is allowing investors to ‘temporarily’ relive the happy days of QE-driven EM bonds and equities,” JPMorgan said in a report, cited by Bloomberg.

 iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF

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ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

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