Mon, May 28, 2012, 4:10 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

October home sales rose 1.4 percent but still weak

October US home sales rose 1.4 percent last month but still weak

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of Americans who bought previously occupied homes rose slightly last month but remained at depressed levels. And more deals are being canceled at the last minute, a sign that even those who are looking to buy are worried about the housing market.

Home sales rose 1.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. That's below the 6 million that economists say is consistent with a healthy housing market and slightly ahead of last year's sales — the worst in 13 years.

The sales are measured when buyers close on the homes.

Many deals are falling apart before that point. One third of Realtors say they've had at least one contract scuttled in October, up from 18 percent in September.

Contracts have been cancelled for a number of reasons: Banks have declined mortgage applications; home inspectors have found problems; appraisals showed a home was worth less than the bid; a buyer lost a job before the closing.

Still, the October increase in home sales beat analysts' expectations. Some economists took that as a positive sign for the troubled market.

"We are not looking for a housing renaissance but the straws in the wind suggest that activity in the sector might be improving slightly," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics.

More than two years after the recession officially ended, many people can't qualify for loans or meet higher down-payment requirements. Even those with excellent credit and stable jobs are holding off because they fear that home prices will keep falling. Home sales are also being hurt by a steep decline in first-time buyers, who are critical to reviving the housing market.

Activity among first-time buyers rose slightly last month to make up 34 percent of sales. That's up from 32 percent in September.

At the same time, homes at risk of foreclosure made up 28 percent of sales last month. That's down from 30 percent in September. Many of the sales went to investors, who are increasingly buying homes priced under $100,000. Sales in that category have increased more than 24 percent over the past year while sales of more expensive homes have fallen.

Sales have fallen in four of the five years since the housing boom went bust in 2006. Declining prices and record-low mortgage rates haven't been enough to boost sales.

Most economists say home prices will keep falling, by at least 5 percent, through the rest of the year. Many forecasts don't anticipate a rebound in prices until at least 2013.

The median sales price dropped roughly 2 percent to $162,500 in October.

The high rate of foreclosures has made re-sold homes much cheaper than new homes. The median price of a new home is roughly 30 percent higher than the price of one that's been occupied before — twice the normal markup.

Investors are taking advantage of the discounts. Their purchases made up 19 percent of all sales last month, compared with less than 10 percent in healthier housing markets.

Home sales rose across the most of the country. Sales increased 4.4 percent in the West, 2.8 percent in the Midwest and 2.1 percent in the South. They fell 5.1 percent in the Northeast.

The glut of unsold homes declined slightly in August to 3.33 million homes. At last month's sales pace, it would take 8 months to clear those homes. Analysts say a healthy supply can be cleared in six months.

The housing market continues to struggle even as the broader economy has shown some improvement in recent months.

The economy grew at an annual pace of 2.5 percent in the July-September quarter. Many economists expect slightly better growth in the October-December quarter.

Last week, the government reported further improvement in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits for the first time. The number fell to 388,000, the fewest since April.

In October, the economy added a net total of 80,000 jobs. It was the 13th straight month of gains. Still, the additional jobs were fewer than the roughly 125,000 that are needed each month just to keep up with population growth.

 

43 comments

  • rw113  •  5 months ago
    The banker's scam backfired - It began like this - PMI Insurance to cover any loss. Set up a straw company to buy the foreclosure at a fraction of value. Collect insurance through another straw company - Banks books show a loss, when they had a double profit through 2 straw companies - - ownership of the home at a fraction of its value, and full value paid for by insurance - Why the bank bailout? The cooked books of the main company said they were in trouble. LOL We been had!
    • rw113 5 months ago
      The backfire is that the housing market actually collapsed because of the magnitude of the scam and banks were left holding houses without the previous value - yet, they still made out like bandits.
  • lavaslublu  •  6 months ago
    if I sell 1 house in September and 2 houses in October I have a 100% increase
  • I hate spam  •  6 months ago
    "We are not looking for a housing renaissance but the straws in the wind suggest that activity in the sector might be improving slightly," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics.
    What a genius! Its statistically irrelevant. And you're a " chief economist"? How much do you get paid? Is your Company hiring? Because I got a few "straws in the wind" to tell you about myself doosh!
    • Daniela R. 6 months ago
      That was exactly my reaction "straws in the wind suggests...?! You are right. I bet you would make better sense than this guy about economy. Thanks for laugh.
  • Joe  •  6 months ago
    Walk down any street and see what a 100k cash will buy.
    • Saber Iceage 6 months ago
      If you live in my town in the NE, nothing. In my neighborhood, there isn't house for under $300k, and mine is a modest neighborhood in this town. I look on the internet and there are only a handful of houses in the whole town below $200k. I wanted my son to buy a home near me, but he can't afford to.
    • BG 6 months ago
      In the rural midwest that will buy you a real nice 2000 sq ft house with low property taxes..
    • y 6 months ago
      I recently bought a fair 3 bedroom, 1 bath, sided house for $3,000 (yes, three thousand dollars) cash, with a clear title. I'm now renting it for $650/mth. I bought it from a bank. The house is in Western PA. Housing prices are VERY low in some areas. These prices are insane.
  • Think  •  6 months ago
    A hurricane is coming. When the baby-boomers start to unloading their property we are going to have a flood you can not believe. And the lead paint thing is becoming a bigger and bigger issue in NY and will spread, 1978 and before houses won't move. Newer models they are making them so they don't last with materials like OSB so they can keep a cash flow coming in. Sales might rise but soon you'll be able to buy a house for 12000 bucks like in the 1950's.
    • craig c 6 months ago
      OSB doesn't last?? Houses for $12,000?? Led Paint a new major problem?? Baby Boomers unloading their property at flooding levels??? WTF are you drinking?
    • Allen 6 months ago
      Lead paint is a GIANT minefield in Oregon. Where I live over 50% of the houses are pre-1980 built and everyone would have some level of lead. It's going to be a huge liability due to lead being deemed a hazardous/toxic substance. Guess who get stuck with the cleanup?
    • y 6 months ago
      Houses with lead paint are no big deal. Keep peeling paint area repaired, and entrap the lead paint by over-painting with any latex paint. If you have tons of peeling paint, use a plastic drop cloth, appropriate clothing and mask. If you want to be anal, remove the top couple inches of soil around the perimeter of your home (let's say two feet away). Throw out at a local landfil (don't have it tested, first. If you do, you may have to deal with it differently). Now, just just because you now have clean soil, doesn't mean it will stay that way, but you did your best. The world is trying to scare you. You'll be ok. Don't over react.
  • Tobias Fuenke  •  6 months ago
    Still about 25% - 35% overvalued. I've got a bumper sticker on my car "content to rent".
  • PhilipC  •  6 months ago
    In Southern California, there are a lot of foreign buyers coming in, all cash transactions, keeping the market afloat. Arcadia, San Marino, Alhambra......just to name a few such places. I do believe prices are inflated, but it certainly is more affordable than 4-5 years ago. The national average is just that, an average. Every regional market may be different, but they combine to make up the national average.
    • Deepsix 6 months ago
      Yeah, your right, the Columbian Drug Cartel plugged into their customers on welfare, sniffing, snorting, shooting. They know where the cash pipline is, right from the State and Federal government propped up by China. Around around the money goes.
  • ZIEH LEINE!  •  6 months ago
    Wait until the next round of foreclosures start hitting the streets. Prices will wither again. Not what you might want to hear, but bad news never is. Follow common sense, not what some real estate organization has to say. Good luck!
  • James  •  6 months ago
    John must be a realtor. Unlike automotive pricing,housing is unique,because you can rent. Financing for an automobile is also easier than qualifying for mortgage financing. The bottom line, housing is still over valued and will continue to correct until reaching the the 2.6 price to income multiple, and the banks and realtors know this - but still sell you homes telling you this is your last chance. 20 Million homes are at risk of foreclosure - seems to me it would be safer to wait and rent until 2015. Set up a small LLC that does consulting and write off 75% of your rent payment.
  • Larry  •  6 months ago
    Do you really believe numbers generated by the National Association of 'Market's Doing Great'?
    Lame attempt to put props on a falling market.
  • Poorme  •  6 months ago
    For many years to come vast numbers of Americans will continue to ruin their Credit due to college loans they can not payoff nor bankrupt. Only Fools would invest in realestate at this time.
  • Barry M  •  6 months ago
    If you check history, you will find this level to be extremely high. The late 1970's bubble, with price inflation raging, tax shelters needed saw a peak of 4 million that wasn't exceeded until 1997. Investors are speculating. The next recession will tear the hell out of rents. I manage family property and credit worthiness of renters is not good.
  • John S  •  6 months ago
    This just seems like a very bad time to be tied down by a house and a mortgage. So many more shoes are hurtling through space in our direction and local gov'ts are in desperate need for cash and won't think twice about bleeding captive houseowners dry. Chill out and let someone else take the hit - life is too short for this crap.
  • LMB  •  6 months ago
    I heard that sales of existing tents, abandoned vehicles, and large cardboard boxes are up over 30%. However, they do get a bit pricey if they're located under an upscale bridge or overpass.
  • Deepsix  •  6 months ago
    I hear you can get a house cheap in Detroit. Did I hear $300 on Whizzing Bullits Drive, that is off Switch Blade Ave.
  • Chris  •  6 months ago
    Buying is house right now is a financial suicide because the housing bubble is still going down. Unless the government bails out the 3 million houses that are underwater the housing prices will kept going down because sooner or later most of these home owners will just away from their loan and banks own house will increase and will have to unload them at rummage prices. So my point is that this article is full of $@#&.
  • William Melon  •  6 months ago
    Home prices are still a bubble compared to historic norm. Google for "housing bubble kondratieff wave" to understand what is pushing prices lower. According to case shiller index, we are still 20% above long term averages. Typical bottom comes at 20% below average. But this is not your typical recession. This is a deflationary crash. This is Great Depression material. These averages themselves are based on a money supply that was inflated by borrowing for many decades. When the money supply deflates, existing prices and salaries cannot be sustained.
  • Art  •  6 months ago
    NAR weekly propaganda, right on time and spun in a positive way by Associated Propaganda.
  • Ranjii S  •  6 months ago
    VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS
  • Merrill  •  6 months ago
    You are kidding, right.LOL
 
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