S&P 500 up 11 of 13: Will it ever go down?
The second half of 2014 started out with a bang with the S&P (^GSPC) closing at another new record high and the Dow closing in on 17,000. As we have learned over the last few years… milestones are made to be broken.
One of the oddest things about where the stock market is right now is that no one is cheering. Years ago when the Dow, S&P or Nasdaq made a new contract high the trading public cheered, but that’s not how it works today.
Despite new high after new high, the public remain generally positive, but they’re wondering … how long until the markets start to fall? Yesterday the Dow (^DJI) made its 12th new record high in 2014 and is up 2.3%. The S&P (SPU14.CME) made its 23rd new high and is now up +6.8% YTD. The S&P has not seen a 1% up or down close since April 16 , 54 days ago. Yesterday at its high the S&P was up 0.90%, The Nasdaq Composite closed up 50.47 points or +1.1%.
What stocks will be looking for today
Can the Dow close above 17,000?
Will today’s ADP number shed light on tomorrow’s jobs numbers?
Janet Yellen, the head of the Fed, will be speaking at the International Monetary Fund at 10:00 am CT. Investors will be listening for clues as to how long the Fed will wait to raise interest rates as its bond-buying program ends later this year.
Will JPMorgan’s stock go down today after CEO Jamie Dimon announced he had throat cancer?
Our goal is to keep people on the right side of the tracks, from the PitBull’s Thursday / Friday low the week before the expiration, to the Russell Rebalance to the June quarterly rebalance to the first trading days of July. I know my message may not be as “tailored” as some of my peers’, but I don’t pretend to be “smart.” I started as a street guy and that’s how it will end… And you know what? I am happy about that!
In Asia 11 out of 11 markets closed higher and in Europe 11 out of 12 markets are trading higher this morning. Today’s economic calendar starts with the MBA Purchase Applications, Challenger Job-Cut Report, ADP Employment Report, Gallup US Payroll to Populations, Factory Orders, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speech on monetary policy to IMF central banking conference in Washington and earnings from Synnex Corp. (NYSE: SNX), UniFirst Corp. (UNF), and Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ).
Our view
Today starts out with another heavy round of economic reports and Janet Yellen speaking. Tell me I am wrong, but it seems like the markets rally every time they hear her name.
Today’s main number is the ADP and tomorrow’s is the jobs number. Our view remains unchanged: We still think higher, but when you see Asia and Europe up across the board like they are it tends to be a signal for a rest day or a sideways to down day—especially before a big number.
Like I said yesterday, we know people love to trade, but we think it’s a good idea to cut back. The markets tend to be unforgiving during holiday weeks and we don’t want to see any big losses. S&P 1983-85 is on tap….
CME GROUP CHICAGO TRADING FLOOR HOLIDAY SCHEDULE FOR 2014
Thursday, July 3, 2014
Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates, Commodities, GSCI, Weather & Real Estate close at 12:00 CT (CME commodity options close at 12:02 CT, CBOT Mini Grains close at 12:30 CT) Equities close at 12:15 CTClosed Friday, July 4, 2014
As always, please make sure to use protective stops when trading futures…
In Asia, 11 of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp. +0.44%, Hang Seng +1.56%, Nikkei +0.29%.
In Europe, 11 of 12 markets are trading higher: DAX +0.24% , FTSE +0.32%
Morning headline: “Global markets rally, then pause before ADP number”
Fair Value: S&P -7.38 , NASDAQ -7.71 , Dow Jones -82.03
Total volume: 1.45 mil ESU and 5.2k SPU traded
Economic calendar: MBA Purchase Applications, Challenger Job-Cut Report, ADP Employment Report, Gallup US Payroll to Populations, Factory Orders, EIA Petroleum Status Report , Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’ speech on monetary policy to IMF central banking conference in Washington and earnings from Synnex Corp. (SNX), UniFirst Corp. (UNF), and Constellation Brands (STZ).
E-mini S&P 5000.00N/A - N/A
Crude0.00N/A - N/A
Shanghai Composite2064.021+4.094 - +0.20%
Hang Seng23541.381+0.461 - +0.00%
Nikkei 22515314.41-65.03 - -0.42%
DAX9772.67-133.40 - -1.35%
FTSE 1006738.45-85.06 - -1.25%
Euro1.361
