S&P 500 is on the cusp of trend change or confirmation, levels to watch

February 22, 2013

The index has recovered from prior day lows, reversing in mean reverting fashion to the 10-day moving average. As we have discussed before, the 10-day is an important proxy for the uptrend off the lows of December and November. In both those months, the 10-day was violated on the downside but quickly reverted to become support. We may see that behavior here, or, a change in trend. The next week will be an important test or confirmation of the longer-term uptrend. At the current level of 1512.88, resistance is at the 10-day moving average, last at 1517.40. Support is at the opening price today of 1502.42. All sectors are in the green, with Materials, Energy, Technology, and the Financials the relative upside leaders. These were among the weakest sectors yesterday.