S&P 500 ETFs Look ‘Tired’ as Rallies Diminish

ETF Trends

Stepping back to look at the long-term charts shows a U.S. stock market that has been seeing shorter rallies and may be running on fumes after this week’s pullback, according to a technical analyst.

“We have used the word ‘tiredness’ to describe the present market. A look at the 10-year quarterly chart of the S&P 500 reveals a similar condition,” says Tarquin Coe at Investors Intelligence.

ETFs tracking the U.S. blue-chip index include SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), iShares S&P 500 (IVV) and Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO).

“Following the bear market low of 2009, the index went onto rally for 4 consecutive quarters. The index then paused the next quarter, then rose for 3 consecutive quarters. Paused again, then rose for 2 consecutive quarters. Paused again, and then rose last quarter,” Coe wrote in a client newsletter Wednesday.

“It’s simple stuff but its message is clear — a weakening uptrend and a possible countdown to a top,” the technical analyst said.

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, is down 1.2% the past week and is up 8% the past three months.

S&P 500

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spy-etf

Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own SPY.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of John Spence, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

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