Mon, May 28, 2012, 6:06 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

Do You Pass the Investment Test?

Like a volcano, markets go through phases: They do very little and then suddenly they spit fiery lava. With new problems being introduced each day--be it Greek debt or the survival of the Euro, political bickering or Middle East uprisings--the markets are constantly trying to figure out what stuff is worth.

[See top-ranked ETFs by category ranked by U.S. News Best ETFs.]

Volatility was up in 2011, and this brought out all of the "forecasters" in droves predicting which way the markets would blow. Most have been wrong. Bill Gross, who runs the largest bond fund in the world, bet against U.S. treasuries, which were a top performer in 2011. Famed investor Meredith Whitney predicted the demise of municipal bonds. Following her advice would have been devastating, as munis rallied after her "insights." Hedge funds that focused on picking stocks were down 7 percent in 2011, despite the fact that the Dow gained 5 percent.

One of our members asked why we recommended Vanguard's exchange-traded fund VGK, an index made up of the largest 482 stocks in 16 European countries, when "everyone knows" that Europe is in trouble. VGK was down nearly 18% last year, while the S&P was flat.

First, think of the thousands of investors all around the world who deeply understand the economic circumstances of every country in Europe. Is your opinion on VGK's price better than theirs? Second, VGK belongs in a globally diversified portfolio because we care about the long term. Europe will recover. In 10 years, VGK's price today will likely look cheap because those 482 companies will be more valuable. When CNBC says "Europe," remember these are real global businesses making real money and employing millions of workers.

A year ago, when TIPS were selling at a high price, one of our members declined to include them in his recommended portfolio because in his opinion they were overvalued. TIPS were up over 12 percent last year.

Trying to time and guess the market's direction is futile for most mortals and investment professionals. It's during times like these that you can really appreciate the calming logic of a simple and disciplined asset allocation investment methodology. Since we never know how one particular asset class will perform, we own them all at a very low cost, in proportion to our risk tolerance. Then we rebalance them as the markets shift.

[See If You Can't Beat It, Join It.]

Sounds easy to "buy low and sell high," doesn't it? Would you buy more European assets now if you were under-allocated? We certainly hope so. Is your asset allocation right? This market provides you with a litmus test. If you have been feeling panic lately, then perhaps your stomach lining isn't strong enough for the amount of equities in your portfolio. It may be time to consider whether you should increase your exposure to bonds and TIPS.

Markets like these test you. Stay the course and take a gut check. Keep rebalancing and make the market's volatility your friend. If your allocation is right, you'll be able to keep your mind off the stock market, keep CNBC off, and focus on the rest of your life.

Mitch Tuchman is CEO and founder of MarketRiders, an online investment advisory and management service helping Americans invest for retirement. MarketRiders gives investors greater peace of mind knowing that they are leveraging the best thinking of Nobel Laureates and the investing methods used by the world's most elite institutions and wealthiest families. MarketRiders is on the investor's side, helping reduce investment costs and risks, and increasing retirement savings.



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21 comments

  • Lord Nelson  •  Elk Grove, California  •  4 months ago
    What this article proves is what I have been saying all along. These financial gurus are no better than tea leaves readers. And obviously that includes the much touted Bill Gross.
    So here is an advise that is no better than theirs but that has worked for me. Own stocks that pay good dividends, use those dividends to live off of and let the market do its thing.
    But whatever you do don't try to time the market unless your REALLY know what you are doing. (I have not yet met that person.)
    • Johnny 4 months ago
      the timers are out there
      you can "time the stocks you buy"
      it takes patience and time
      it is much better than how some gurus select stocks: with darts
    • c laird478 4 months ago
      I've learned that it is much easier to 'price' stocks than to 'time' them. Buy when the price goes down to bargain levels, and sell when the price goes up to profitable levels. It's anybody's guess WHEN the market will present those opportunities though. While I'm waiting, I collect my nice dividends.
    • SHIRLEY 4 months ago
      Great common-sense comments here!! Re timing --- a Div paying stock will climb as Ex-date nears --- & usually Always drop a point or 2 After Ex-date.
  • Lord Fauntleroy  •  Cincinnati, Ohio  •  4 months ago
    Do your own homework. Learn finance and economics. It's a skill that will reward you for the rest of your life. There's a lot of bad advice out there.
  • SHIRLEY  •  Topeka, Kansas  •  4 months ago
    I get a tickle @ all the Guru's who "advise" this or that every day. @ 71, I do my own, sleep well w/ My conservative choice's -------- & have nobody's Butt but my own to kick if I mess up --- using my Broker to push My button's -- rather than His. My meager 8- Stock
    "portfolio" pays 7% in Div's & gained almost 8% this year. True, I Did have to learn how to do a Computer & it IS Time consuming to keep Tabs & all, but Well worth the Effort & I'm paying only the Fee for the trade's I make.
    • Johnny 4 months ago
      NO one, NO one cares more for your investments/assets than YOU! that's just the honest to goodness truth...all the very very best to you
    • Corny 4 months ago
      Nice work! No bonds??
    • SHIRLEY 4 months ago
      Nope no Bonds, Corny -- my one, only & Last was Lehman. Nuff said??
  • groblix  •  Colorado Springs, Colorado  •  4 months ago
    Yeah making predictions is hard. Especially about the future.
    • steve r 4 months ago
      um...predictions are ONLY about the future, so why do you make it sound like predicting is harder when its about the future?
    • Mark 4 months ago
      Um...Steve R...You're a bright one aren't you?
    • avg joe 4 months ago
      Thanks Yogi!
  • GetReal  •  Richardson, Texas  •  4 months ago
    Not too many positive posts out there...so much pessimism and bitterness. Here's my positive up-beat note...I found a penny on the ground today...cha-ching!
    • michaelc 4 months ago
      "A penny saved is a penny earned." Benjamin Franklin. You must be old, like myself, because NOBODY picks up pennies ANYMORE ! I have seen people drop nickles and even dimes right in front of themselves and look at them and then just walk away.
  • The_Mick  •  Baltimore, Maryland  •  4 months ago
    "Would you buy more European assets now if you were under-allocated? We certainly hope so." +++++ I certainly hope NOT unless you have as good an understanding of how business and economies work in Europe as you do of the USA. I listen to Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett: buy what you know. In Lynch's "One Up On Wall St," he gives an example of a guy who buys stock in XYZ company because it's making a hard drive with great specs that only a technician could really appreciate but that the "experts" say will result in big sales. Meanwhile, his wife comes home from a new store called "The Gap," says she bought their daughter's school wardrobe for the year for just $500 and the store's so crowded you can barely get in the door. By six months later, ten other companies came out with similar drives and XYZ's stock price dropped in half. Meanwhile, stock in The Gap doubled. Similarly, Lynch made big money for Fidelity Magellan shareholders when his wife came home with "L'Eggs" when they started selling them on trees in supermarkets and he bought stock in the company that was eventually absorbed by Sara Lee and with a new motel chain when he stayed at one and like the innovative things they were doing. Buy what you know!
  • simplicity  •  Wilton, Iowa  •  4 months ago
    They borrow our money for free and loan it to us @ 6%. Then threaten us when our repayment is not on time.
  • michaelc  •  4 months ago
    Mr Tutchman says that 'dollar cost averaging' is the way to invest. I say that it may be one way but not necessarily the best way. It is like putting your investments on 'autopilot' no matter what the markets are doing. I had a stock mutual fund with a monthly automatic deposit system set up. Just for fun, I opened an discount brokerage account to trade on my own about twenty years ago. Teaching yourself the rules of buying and selling stock is not hard (read a couple of books,ask a lot of questions), and if you make relatively small transactions ( hundreds of shares) you won't make or lose too much before you get the hang of it. I did so much better than my stock mutual fund that I closed it out and rolled it over into my triple tax free municipal bond fund, which is the only dollar cost averaged thing that I own today. Master one rule with the stock market and the odds will always be on your side--BUY LOW SELL HIGH, and always keep a 'weather eye' on the market ! One other thing that I would like to mention-- stock picking is exciting. I can still remember the time that I called up and placed my first buy order. It was as exciting as my first solo flight after I started flying lessons.
  • Irving  •  Monterey Park, California  •  4 months ago
    How to people get paid for this load of crap. I just don't get it.
  • 1776  •  Norfolk, Virginia  •  4 months ago
    People diversify when they dont know whats going on in the markets.... If you dont understand it keep out until you do.
  • Larry  •  Marble Falls, Texas  •  4 months ago
    Whitney's call on municipal bonds was a clear error of analysis. Municipal bonds are simply not a homogenous market and debt service cost is a very low percentage of most local govt budgets. Whitney ignored these realities.

    Inflation is the bigger concern of bond holders than local govt default.
  • Tom  •  Chicago, Illinois  •  4 months ago
    What a bunch of nothing.
  • bobby  •  4 months ago
    In 10 years, many of those 482 European companies will have been taken over or declared bankruptcy. They won't all be more valuable.

    Investment professionals are mortal.

    Rebalancing is a questionable tactic, raising a host of questions such as when, how much, to what. As if the original allocation was somehow perfectly tailored to the investor's risk tolerance and time horizons.
  • Lance  •  Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin  •  4 months ago
    99% of the population doesn't read books on finance and then they complain when these morons lose their money...I read every day and I invest my own money my way...that way I only have myself to blame...what I'm reading right now: '23 things they don't tell you about capitalism"
    Pick up a book people and quit watching American Idol....geez...
    Obama 2012!
  • usecare  •  Colorado Springs, Colorado  •  4 months ago
    Thanks for the article. The last sentence is completely correct -- and it would be terrific advice even if your allocation is wrong.
  • Dennis  •  Fargo, North Dakota  •  4 months ago
    This is easy! MF Global proved that the clearing function of markets is now broken. First, investors who want to own stocks MUST now take delivery of their stock certificates. No more "street name" foolishness. BTW, good luck on that -- actual settlement in many stocks is impossible. Your investment statement will show the stocks you paid for, but the actual trades never settled. If your trade didn't settle, you cannot get delivery of your stock cert. You paid for nothing "real." Second, as Ms. Barnhardt advises, if you cannot stand in front of what you purchased and protect it with your AK-47, you don't own it. Third, take the penalties and pay the taxes on your IRAs and 401(k)s and GET OUT OF THEM. They will be confiscated by either crooks or government (they are pretty much the same people).
  • un10able  •  4 months ago
    Gee, I wonder if this is in any way a testimony to Democrat Party rule? Every one of those States cited have been in a vise grip of the Democrat party for decades. # 10 Wisconsin's
    Governor Scott Walker is trying mightily to clean up the feces that the Democrat dogs- for eons- have dragged across the floor of the Madison State House. What does he get for it? A recall petition generated by the 14%er's. You know who I mean, the csea's and the afscme's that actually have people believing that if we dare lay off teachers that our education system will collapse. Sorry morons, that horse has already left the barn.

    I'd love to know how many retired civil servants in each of these States ultimately decide to retire and stay in those State's? As stupid as most Civil Servants are, they're still not stupid enough to stay in a State that taxes the crap out of it's citizens to pay for their own retirement.
  • jim bob  •  San Francisco, California  •  4 months ago
    why does posting on yahoo suck
  • Drew  •  4 months ago
    The secret is the FACT that the Gold market doesn't really "trade", but rather is 100% controlled by a computer program, and this program gives itself away through "tells", which allows you to see it and therefore allows you to know which direction it's about to go, whether up or down, further allowing you to take trades on Gold 24 hours per day and make money, able to get your trades right with a very high degree of accuracy. Sound impossible? Sound like a scam? Google “G0ld Trading Academy” to learn more.
  • c laird478  •  4 months ago
    People who got out of tech stocks in 1998 because they were looking too pricey then missed out on some big gains during 1999 too. And just think of the gains lost in 2007 by those who got out of their investment real estate holdings in 2006.
 
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