In a tracking survey that estimates the percentage of the U.S. population employed at least 30 hours a week, Gallup reports that the Payroll to Population (P2P) employment rate fell from 44.6% in July to 43.7% in August. The P2P rate in June was 44.8%, the highest reading so far in 2013.
In August 2012 the P2P rate was 45.3%, just slightly below a 45.7% reading in October 2012, a three-year high.
Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in August rose from 7.4% in July to 8.6%. The “official” number due out Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to remain flat at 7.4%. On an unadjusted basis, Gallup’s August unemployment rate rose to 8.7%, up from 7.8% in July and 8.1% in August 2012.
According to Gallup, its P2P metric is based on the entire population, not just those in the workforce as is the case with unemployment rate computations, nor does the survey include the self-employed, part-time workers, the unemployed or workers who are out of the workforce.
Gallup said that the percentage of part-time workers who want full-time jobs fell from 9.5% in July to 8.7% in August, its lowest level so far this year.
Gallup also reported that the workforce participation rate fell slightly from 67.7% in July to 66.4% in August. Workforce participation also fell year-over-year, from 68.1% in August 2012.
Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to show a drop in the unemployment rate, according to Gallup, and may even show a slight increase. Gallup also notes that unemployment in September already has begun to decline and is a “promising” sign for better employment numbers this month.
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