Here is a fun trivia question related to the World Cup and exchange traded funds: What is the only Latin American country that has a dedicated ETF tracking its stocks that is not participating in the 2014 World Cup?
The answer is Peru and the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU) . While Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, the Latin American nations investable via ETFs, are busy seeking football glory, investors should not discount EPU based on Peru’s lack of World Cup participation.
Arguably, EPU merits closer consideration by investors willing to take on single-country risk in a region where equity markets are recovering. That recovery is evident with EPU and Peru. Since the start of the second quarter, EPU is up 7.2%, topping the Global X FTSE Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT) , iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (ECH) and the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) along the way. [Pleasant Peruvian Surprise]
After being hampered by the downdraft in gold and silver miners several week’s (Peru is the largest silver producer and a major gold producer), EPU appears to be consolidating in bullish form. [Peru ETF Joiners Miners Rally]
“Over the weekend, we noticed a tight consolidation in EPU, which rallied off the lows after bottoming out around $30,” said Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group. “During the advance off the lows, the 10-week moving average crossed above the 40-week, which is a bullish trend reversal signal when there are signs of a true bottom in place. The 10wma is trending higher, while the 40wma flattened out and is beginning to turn up.”
There are fundamental reasons to embrace EPU as well.
In April, the International Monetary Fund forecast 2014 GDP growth of 5.5% for Peru. That compares with 4.5% for Colombia and just 1.8% for Brazil. Brazil and Colombia are South America’s largest economies. The IMF expects Peruvian GDP to rise 5.8% next year and noted the country’s 2.5% rate of inflation is the second-lowest in Latin America behind Colombia.
iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.