Mon, May 28, 2012, 4:29 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

Philly Fed boss warns against speeding recovery

Philadelphia Reserve Bank head warns against speeding up economic recovery

NEWARK, Del. (AP) -- The head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank warned Tuesday against efforts to accelerate the nation's economic recovery, citing the threat of inflation.

Speaking at the University of Delaware, Charles Plosser said the Fed already has taken several steps to help revive the economy, and that with a very accommodative monetary policy already in place, officials must guard against the medium and longer-term risks of inflation.

"Inflation risks in the near term, I think, remain modest," he said. "However, I do remain concerned that monetary policy actions have exposed us to substantial inflation risks over the medium and longer term."

Plosser noted that the Fed has kept the federal funds rate near zero for more than three years to support the economic recovery. The Fed also has conducted two rounds of asset purchases that have more than tripled the size of its balance sheet and changed its composition from short-term Treasuries to longer-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

"Today, we are in a modest recovery from a very deep recession and a financial crisis," Plosser said. "The financial crisis has passed, however, and monetary policy should not continue to act as if the financial crisis is still upon us."

Plosser said he did not support the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement last month that economic conditions were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, 18 months longer than the mid-2013 date the Fed first signaled in August.

The FOMC also announced that the Fed intends to continue a program begun in September in which the Fed is buying $400 billion of longer-term Treasuries and selling an equal amount of shorter-term Treasuries in an effort to reduce yields from already historically low levels.

"I think economic conditions, as they have evolved even since late last year, do not call for further accommodation," Plosser said. "In fact, the economy has actually improved. Moreover, I continue to oppose using calendar dates to communicate forward guidance."

Plosser dissented from the FOMC decisions in August and September. This year, he does not have a vote on the committee, which rotates four of its 12 seats on an annual basis among 11 regional reserve bank presidents.

With job growth strengthening and unemployment rates falling, Plosser said he expects the economy to continue to grow at a modest pace, with annual growth of about 3 percent this year and next year.

But he warned that the continuing debt crisis in Europe carries significant potential risks for the U.S. economic recovery, having already imposed considerable uncertainty for global economic growth.

"I would add our own nation's inability to establish a clear plan to put our fiscal house in order continues to contribute additional uncertainty to the economic landscape," he said.

 

47 comments

  • realityguy  •  Milwaukee, Wisconsin  •  3 months ago
    Tap your heels together 3 times. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. Unless you eat and drive to work every day. Quantatative Fleecing.
    • Mark 3 months ago
      Not to many people realizes either, as they have so grown accustom to sitting at home and drawing unemployment. Wish they would do away with the extensions and force them back to work. I continue to hear there is no jobs, but bet I can have 1 within hours. The pay may be slightly less then they are drawing from unemployment, but atleast I would not be living off of other folks.
    • Crafty B 3 months ago
      Certain things costing more is not inflation, realityguy.

      Food and gas are more expensive due to increased demand for petroleum products from emerging nations, not inflation.
  • CHARLES B  •  Atlanta, Georgia  •  3 months ago
    Like that guy said: Politicians only tell the truth when they call other politicians Lairs!
  • Tina  •  Shinnston, West Virginia  •  3 months ago
    They think if they keep saying it long enough, the sheeple will actually believe what they are saying and they are right. There are SO many Americans out there who will believe every lie shoved down their throats by the gov because they need to believe in Santa and the Easter bunny. There IS no recovery, just more QE going on. Look at what the TRUE unemployments numbers are, they are 22.5 percent and growing. Your great American gov is at work with it's usual propaganda machine at full smoke!
    • S 3 months ago
      Tina lots of my relatives and probably some of yours too, don't care as long as they keep getting their food stamps, Section 8, free computers and telephones and respective low cost services, Medicaid ...etc. and etc. This accounts for approx. 45% of the population now. Taxpayers have funded anti-Darwinism now for over 5 decades and surprise, they are about to outnumber us.
  • anyone  •  3 months ago
    these guys talk about 'recovery' like they are looking for ufo's or bigfoot. as long as they keep saying 'recovery' (for the last 5 years actually - because things were going down in 2007) there is no recovery.
  • Gregory  •  Madison, New Jersey  •  3 months ago
    These morons make me laugh. They keep saying that inflation isn't out of control. What planet do they live on ? They omit food and energy to make the numbers look better. Try not to eat and drive for a week. See how long they last !!!!
    • Crafty B 3 months ago
      There's a big difference between certain things costing more and inflation, Gregory.

      The cost of food and energy are tied together and are both caused by increased demand for petroleum products from emerging countries, not inflation.

      If we had true inflation, it would be reflected in long-term interest rates being high accompanied by prices on ALL products moving up in unison... as interest rates are historically low, and the prices of many products (particularly electronics and other durable goods) have decreased while food & gas has increased, that simply is not the case.

      Despite all the doom and gloom from certain self-interested parties, there hasn't been a scrap of inflation over the last five years..

      Doesn't mean there cannot be infliation in the future, but we haven't seen any yet.
    • j 3 months ago
      Crafty, it is obvious you are schooled in Keynesian econ. For one the fed is doing most everything it can to keep interest rates down, they are not being set by the free market. Look at operation twist. Not a scrap of inflation you say, why is it my purchasing power has not increased? The method used to calculate inflation is as suspect as the unemployment rate calc. If you were to actually use real accounting methods GDP and is not increasing in the USA. Your magic account of saying because a computer is more powerful now then it was 6 months ago balances inflation pressure. Well the 1 gallon of gasoline actually has less BTU then it did say 10 yrs ago due to the increase in additives and the inclusion of ethanol that is making up 10+% of 1 gallon of gasoline and simple science can show ethanol has a lower BTU output then the purer gasoline of the past. The price of eggs has increased by 100% but demand has not outstripped growth in population and with a healthier eating lifestyle egg consumption has declined. Lets look at housing, it takes far less man hours to build a house now then in the past. I remember using hand saws and hammers to build a house, now with tools it takes
  • Chuckles  •  3 months ago
    Bernanke puts the pedal to the metal!
  • Salvo  •  Roslyn, New York  •  3 months ago
    What you mean manipulating the stock market doesn't solve problems and eventually leads to a crash? Well that's okay, Wall St. will be sent a memo the week before the Fed decides to stop propping it up.

    For everyone else? That's your problem.
  • Deb Asset Pending  •  3 months ago
    Ah, I was waiting on the negative interest rates. The ones where they pay you to borrow and not pay the principal off.
  • Kenneth  •  Atlanta, Georgia  •  3 months ago
    What they don't get is that the high unemployment situation is caused by massive outsourcing abroad by U.S. corporations, and not a weak economy.
    • Rolling Thunder 3 months ago
      And the massive outsourcing is caused by over-regulation, unions, and over-taxation. (Think about it, things have to be pretty lopsided to make it worth dealing overseas rather than in your own back yard- dealing with foreigners, with shipping and transportation costs, lack of centralization, and so forth. There is a good reason we outsource, and until we address the reasons for doing so, no responsible CEO can justify producing hear what he can do cheaper elsewhere. His primary responsibility is to his stockholders- not to the nation as a whole.)
    • looking4u 3 months ago
      At first they outsource manufacturing, now they have started to outsource services, such as medical billing, and they are in process of experimenting with sending patient outside of US too. Companies that support 'transfer of money' outside of US through their bussiness model should pay higher taxes. That is the only solution
  • LibsRLiars  •  Ann Arbor, Michigan  •  3 months ago
    What a buffoon. The fed just got done with QR1 and QE2 which amounted to creating money out of thin air and are now ready to unleash QE3. If you don't understand what this means to us look at the price of gas. The reason it went from $2.40 per gallon to $3.50 is because our money is worth that much less on the world market. The only reason we have not felt the effects og devalued dollars as much internally is because there is little demand for anything but essential goods.
    Neither Obama or his managerie of idiots have any answers for the calamity they brought on themselves with the insistance on running fannie and freddie as an insurance agency for their moronic housing policies. Bush did not cause this economic condition, the democrats did. Just look at the demand Dodd, Frank and Obama made on the mortgage industry and you will soon see why the wheels came off.
    • dealwithit 3 months ago
      Maybe you missed it but QE3 is already in full force. Where to think the ECB got that 500B to loan to the banks to loan to the PIIGS? You think the stock market rallied 20% on it's own?
  • Mike  •  3 months ago
    You are already seeing the inflation rate shoot up in food, gas, car prices, tools, clothing, major appliances, everything in the hardware store from fluorescent tubes to rat poison. Our local restaurants have even printed new menus with higher prices for most items.

    The government reported inflation rate is suppressed and understates real inflation by two to three fold at the current time. We're seeing 8-10 percent inflation annually in most of our intermediate goods.
  • 2012Correction  •  3 months ago
    I warned against printing money for a speedy recovery in 2008. If the free market economy had dictated the rise and fall of american corporations, this "Recession" ordeal would have been out of the way years ago. Making a dead man stand doesn't make him any more alive.
    Stop printing money to bailout the business machine and the markets will correct without ambiguity. As of this very instant we just have a bowl of salad with whip cream and a cherry on top. Unless you tackle / get rid of the salad, the whip cream just won't sit right.
  • Jim  •  Naperville, Illinois  •  3 months ago
    "He says the nation's monetary policy should reflect the fact that the financial crisis has passed and the country is in the third year of a modest economic recovery. " Maybe his job should be eliminated.
  • FYI  •  3 months ago
    If it were not for the European debt crisis U.S. interest rates would be rising due to real inflation. We keep interest rates low and do quantitative easing because we need a weak dollar compared to the Euro to keep our modest recovery on track, which adds fuel to the inflationary fire. We can only keep this up for so long before there is real trouble with inflation.
  • FYI  •  3 months ago
    If it was not for the European debt crisis and the resulting flight to "quality" of U.S. Federal debt, the market would have forced higher interest rates in line with our real inflation. Since our modest recovery could be derailed if our currency is too strong (again, influenced by the problems with the Euro) the short term play is to keep devaluing the dollar with easy money and Quantitative Easing...aka monetizing our debt. We can only keep this up for so long before we are in real trouble.
  • Laurence  •  Annandale, New Jersey  •  3 months ago
    What do you mean the threat of inflation?...How come I'm paying 30% or 40% more for many food items as well as household goods in the last couple of years? I used to be able to buy quite a bit for $40...Now I pay for a few items and it hits $40 in no time. The dollar isn't worth what it used to be.
  • jOHHNY  •  3 months ago
    If you are too dumb to find a job, shut up and enjoy your food stamps and TV.
  • John S  •  Tokyo, Japan  •  3 months ago
    Make no mistake this is part of a scheme to redistribute wealth. Soaring local, state and property taxes are another part of it.
  • BadNarc  •  Kansas City, Missouri  •  3 months ago
    Modest Economic Recovery? Could have fooled me. 15 1/2 trillion in debt and climbing to over 20 trillion under Obumba's Budget in four years, if that is recovery I sure am glad we are not in a recession!
  • William Melon  •  Richardson, Texas  •  3 months ago
    GDP is up, but debt is up much more. Google for "DEFLATIONARY CRASH" to understand why the economy cannot carry the burden of this debt. Every year the Federal government is borrowing almost 10% of GDP and spending it. But GDP at best grows at 3%. This is just the federal debt. Add to that the cities, companies, individuals and it becomes a very dark picture. Before the crash $6 of debt would push GDP up a paltry 1 dollar. Now it is worse.
 
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