Positive Signs for India ETF

ETF Trends

Exchange traded funds offering exposure to India, Asia’s third-largest economy, have been stars of the BRIC bunch this year.

Three of the four major country ETFs tracking BRIC nations are lower year-to-date. The exception is the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) , the largest India ETF by assets.  EPI and the iShares India 50 ETF (NasdqGM:INDY) are up an average of 8% this year. Examining India’s strength relative to the broader emerging markets complex indicates EPI, INDY and rival ETFs could be poised for further upside after flailing in 2014 due to rampant inflation, a plunging rupee and widening account deficit. [India ETFs are BRIC Leaders]

EPI is up 14% in the past six months while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is off 6%, but the India ETF may have more upside in store according to analysis by Investment Strategy Wire.

“Last time the EPI was trading at the current levels was in June 2013. Trading in a positive corridor with the 14d RSI reading indicating the ETF is not overbought yet; the EPI seems to be well positioned to attack the next resistance level of $19 offering a potential upside of 4.7% from now,” according to the research firm.

While not noticeably more volatile than their Brazilian counterparts, Indian stocks are volatile relative to other emerging markets. However, incurring that volatility has proven rewarding for risk-tolerant investors as India has taken steps, including multiple interest rate increases, to defend the rupee and narrow its current account deficit.  [BIITS ETFs Struggle After Rate Hikes]

“Investors should keep in mind that India market is a beta plus game. India’s beta vs. the S&P 500 Index is well above 1.5 with some India ETF’s breaking the levels of 2,” notes Investment Strategy Wire, which rates EPI hold with an overweight bias.

Important to EPI’s near- to medium-term fortunes is the relative strength against EEM the India ETF is displaying. The comparison is important for money managers that benchmark to and attempt to beat broader indices such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

“In the case of the EPI (India) vs. the EEM (global EM) ratio we can easily notice that India has been in a relative bullish mode since September 2013. Moreover, the EPI broke the long term resistance level at the end of 2013 and keeps testing new highs since,” according to Investment Strategy Wire.

EPI Relative Strength vs. EEM

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Chart Courtesy: Investment Strategy Wire

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