What we've learned about the Premier League at the halfway mark
On the eve of the four-month mark in the nine-month Premier League campaign, the season is nearing the halfway point, which offers the opportunity to reflect on what we’ve seen in one of the most competitive seasons on record. The top four are separated by only four points, while fifth-place Tottenham Hotspur has conceded the fewest goals and has the fewest defeats of any side in the league (along with Arsenal). At the bottom, eight teams are within four points of the relegation zone or inside it.
The biggest shocker from surprising Chelsea
Antonio Conte’s Chelsea has been the best team in the Premier League thus far, as the Blues have bounced back from a Jose Mourinho meltdown season to claim the top spot.
While Conte’s epochal shift to a back three has been far from shocking, the 3-4-3 system’s dominance in the Premier League has been surprising. If Chelsea’s improvement under Conte has raised eyebrows and widened eyes, David Luiz’s transformation into a modern Franz Beckenbauer has heads spinning in cartoon-like fashion. Luiz has been the most important player in Chelsea’s defense, and the Brazilian’s ability to flourish under the immense responsibility of being the last man has effectively ended the club’s long-term drug addiction to John Terry. At the moment, rumors of a China exit in January fit far better than Terry does into Conte’s back three.
Eden Hazard and Diego Costa returning to the form of a couple seasons ago helped Chelsea’s rebound, but Luiz wasn’t even in England when the season began, let alone the most important defender on the league-leading title favorite. Without Luiz, the 3-4-3 would not have worked. His ability to clear the ball and also play a pass have effectively ended the talk of luring Leonardo Bonucci to Stamford Bridge. Victor Moses and Marcos Alonso deserve recognition for their early-season contributions, but no single player epitomizes Conte’s Chelsea revolution more than Luiz.
Title-winning quality elsewhere in the top four
Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are all within a point of one another and within touching distance of Chelsea. At the moment, Alexis Sanchez and the Gunners look like they’re the best bet to catch Chelsea because Arsene Wenger finally filled the right needs, particularly with regards to buying defender Shkodran Mustafi.
On paper and on the pitch, Arsenal has the depth to challenge for the title. The Gunners even finished top of their Champions League group (yes, the Round of 16 curse may finally come to an end). Sanchez playing as the lead front man has the Chilean scoring goals that could be confused for those scored by a certain Argentine that plays in Barcelona. More importantly, Sanchez’s success at the point of attack has eliminated the constant criticism of Arsenal not spending to bring in a world-class striker. Sanchez is good enough to create and take chances in the big games.
Like Chelsea, Liverpool gets a great deal of its strength from not playing in Europe. The Reds play a particularly strenuous brand of high-pressing football that can bring about a flurry of goals that terrorize defenses across the league. Sadio Mane has been particularly crucial to Liverpool’s fast-passing attacks, while Joel Matip has quietly been, arguably, the best defender to join the Premier League over the summer.
With Matip, the Reds are unbeaten and have allowed nine goals over 13 matches across all competitions. Without Matip, Liverpool has allowed nine goals in three Premier League fixtures. The German-born defender’s upcoming decision on whether or not to take part in the Africa Cup of Nations with Cameroon could mean the difference between a title run and a top-four challenge for the Reds.
Manchester City is certainly in the title race despite a home defeat to Chelsea that resulted in a rash of red cards due to a lack of discipline. To start the season, the Citizens were the best team in Europe, which meant a letdown had to come their way. However, had Kevin de Bruyne simply put his back-post effort on target last Saturday against Chelsea, Man City would likely be sitting top of the league. Pep Guardiola’s side is far from out of the title race and only a fool would bet against the Spaniard ending up in the top four while simultaneously putting forth a meaningful challenge in Europe.
For the first half of the season, Guardiola has lived up to the hype, even if Man City is currently sitting in fourth place. Along with Arsenal, City has the deepest squad in England, and the Spaniard will need to display his cunning and resourcefulness over the tricky holiday fixture list.
Head scratchers and disappointments
Tottenham is the head scratcher, but Spurs remain title contenders despite sitting in fifth and appearing to be a half-step below the four teams they’re chasing. Tottenham has only suffered one league defeat through the first 14 rounds, but the North London club just crashed out of the Champions League in shameful fashion. At least Harry Kane appears to be back in form after his typical slow start that included an injury spell on the sidelines.
Though Tottenham’s six draws seem like they’re far too high, four of those six points came away from home and one of those two home draws came against Liverpool. Spurs, who finished with the best defense in the previous campaign, have again conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League through the first 14 games. With Kane firing and on target and the best defense in the league blocking bullets, Tottenham should not be taken lightly.
With regards to disappointments, Leicester City, West Ham United and Manchester United can all equally present strong arguments. Mourinho’s United seemingly cannot protect leads and claim victories from winning positions, which is odd because that’s exactly what Mourinho has been known for his entire career. Also, the Red Devils have struggled to take their chances and bag goals despite the weekly wages of their forwards: Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney and Anthony Martial.
Mourinho has struggled to figure out his first-choice lineup, and four months into the campaign, the Portuguese manager still doesn’t seem to know who is his best 11. Based on the evidence of the first half of the campaign, even United’s supporters have to be wondering if winning the Europa League is the only way to get into next season’s Champions League. Winning the Premier League title seems like a complete fantasy, which incidentally, appears to be the basis of United’s transfer strategy.
Leicester City, meanwhile, is in a proper relegation scrap. Despite winning their group in the Champions League and advancing to the final 16, the Foxes are flirting with the drop zone, sitting only two points out. The Premier League champions have only collected one point from their first seven away fixtures.
Claudio Ranieri doesn’t have to worry about European play until late February, but Leicester has not yet displayed any reason to believe that this team will turn around its fortunes domestically. At the start of the season, the Foxes’ odds stated that they were more likely to go down than win the title again, so perhaps, the bookmakers have regained some of their credibility.
West Ham United is only one point out of the drop zone, as the move to the Olympic Stadium has been disastrous on the pitch and in terms of atmosphere in the stands. The Hammers have allowed 29 goals in 14 matches, tied with second from bottom Hull City for the second-worst defensive record in the league. Swansea City’s 31 goals conceded is the worst defensive record thus far, and the Swans are rightfully at the bottom of the table.
Statistically and based on the eye test, West Ham deserves to be near the bottom, and relegation is a real possibility for the Londoners. The only positive of the season thus far has been Dimitri Payet having the best goal and best assist of the season (see below). However, the Frenchman is rumored to be leaving, which would make West Ham a significantly stronger candidate for the Championship.
So much determination by @dimpayet17 #WHU https://t.co/OrlIhhmMPV
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) October 1, 2016
Did that just happen?!? It doesn't get much better than this assist from Payet! #PLonNBC https://t.co/hI3rpcQOCL
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) September 10, 2016
Breaking glass ceilings in more ways than one
Bob Bradley became the first American to take over a Premier League club when he assumed control of Swansea City. Then, Bradley became the first American to manage a team to victory in a mad 5-4 result that included two stoppage time goals by Fernando Llorente for the win.
Sitting at the bottom of the pile, though, is never a safe spot for a Premier League manager. Thus, Bradley must be the most likely manager to lose his post, which would of course make him the first American to be sacked in the Premier League. Win, lose or draw, Bradley continues to make history for America in Europe.
Shahan Ahmed is a soccer columnist for Yahoo! Sports. Follow Shahan on Twitter: @ShahanLA and @perfectpass
