Previewing Earnings for Apple, Amazon, Deckers, F5 & Others

Indie Research

Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.

During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 25- to 40-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.

Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.

In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks still set to report results this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), F5 Networks (FFIV), Akamai (AKAM), and Potash (POT).

Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about F5 Networks:

F5 has beaten analyst EPS estimates seven of the past eight quarters, meeting the consensus once. Over that period, the stock has risen the next session six of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen each of the last four years. ...

Last quarter, the company saw net income grow 15.7% to $72.3 million, or 91 cents per share. That was up from $62.5 million, or 77 cents per share, in the year-earlier period.

Excluding one-time and non-cash items, adjusted EPS jumped 17.5% to $1.14, in-line with the Wall Street consensus. A year ago, adjusted EPS was 97 cents.

Revenue grew by 21.3% to $352.6 million, compared to the $352.9 million that the Street expected.

Product revenue of $207.1 million grew 15.5% year over year and represented 59% of total revenue. Service revenue of $145.5 million grew 30.6% year over year and accounted for 41% of the total. The book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was less than one.

On a geographic basis, Americas revenue increased 21% year over year and accounted for 57% of the total. EMEA revenue, which represented 21% of the total, increased by 27%. APAC revenue, which contributed 15% of the total, was up 17% year over year, while Japan revenue accounted for 7% of revenue, and was up 9% year over year. ...

Outside of earnings, F5 is the clear leader in the growing Application Delivery Networking (ADN) market with about a 50% share. Its ADN technology, which is used to manage data traffic between users and application servers, is increasingly the choice among enterprise customers.

This best-of-breed tech company is riding some strong secular tailwinds, such as the explosive growth of cloud computing, the build-out of virtual desktop infrastructure, and the growing use of smartphones. The company is also making some solid inroads in data center security, and Cisco's exit from the ADC market, even if only temporary, should provide a near-term lift. ...

The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.

Just a few of the correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q3 were:

  • to be bullish on eBay (EBAY) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bullish on Facebook (FB) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bearish on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ahead of earnings.
  • A daily investment service that is committed to creating long-term wealth for its members, BullMarket.com's Recommended List of stocks is up 33.3% from 2008-2011 versus a -14.4% return for the S&P, a 47.7% outperformance, topping the benchmark each year since the start of the Great Recession. Subscribers receive actionable market commentary, access to 40+ stock ideas on the Recommended List, and real-time trade alerts. Plus, sign up for a free trial today to view Bull Market's in-depth Special Reports - including its annual High Yield and MLP reports - and its timely Earnings Previews, which are published every Friday during the heart of earnings season. Get a Risk-Free Trial to Bull Market Today! (Please note returns are unaudited.)

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