Previewing Earnings for eBay, Google, IBM, Microsoft & Others

Indie Research

Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.

During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 25- to 40-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.

Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.

In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including eBay (EBAY), Microsoft (MSFT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and McDonald's (MCD).

Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Microsoft:

Microsoft has beaten EPS estimates five of the last eight quarters, meeting them twice and missing once. Over that period, the stock has risen the next session five of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen twice in the last four years.

Last quarter, Microsoft earned $6.4 billion, or 76 cents per share, during the final three months of 2012, which was its fiscal second quarter. That was down -4% from $6.6 billion, or 78 cents per share, a year earlier.

The company's total revenue rose by 3% from the previous year to $21.5 billion.

The earnings were a penny above the analyst consensus estimate, while the total revenue missed the Street's expectations by about $100 million.

It was the first quarter to include results from the release of Windows 8 on October 26th. The company also launched a revamped version of its mobile operating system during the quarter. ...

Outside of earnings, Microsoft doesn't get the credit it deserves in certain areas, including cloud computing with Azure, which is doing very well. Its Server & Tools division has been posting very good results, while Xbox and Kinect have also been winners, though Xbox is getting long-of-tooth and probably needs a refresh to re-energize sales.

Windows 8, however, doesn't appear to have the same adoption rate as past refresh cycles, and the overall PC market remains weak. The Surface tablet looks interesting, but Microsoft doesn't have a very good track record on the hardware side of the business, and sales thus far look uninspiring. ...

Just a few of the correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q4 were:

  • to be bullish on Netflix (NFLX) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bullish on Michael Kors (KORS) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bearish on Akamai (AKAM) ahead of earnings.
  • A daily investment service that is committed to creating long-term wealth for its members, BullMarket.com's Recommended List of stocks is up 104.9% from 2009-2012 versus a 57.9% return for the S&P, a 47.0% outperformance, topping the benchmark each year since the start of the Great Recession. Subscribers receive actionable market commentary, access to 40+ stock ideas on the Recommended List, and real-time trade alerts. Plus, sign up for a free trial today to view Bull Market's in-depth Special Reports - including its annual High Yield and MLP reports - and its timely Earnings Previews, which are published every Friday during the heart of earnings season. Get a Risk-Free Trial to Bull Market Today! (Please note returns are unaudited.)

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