Previewing Earnings for Google, eBay, Microsoft, Intel & Others

Indie Research

Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.

During earnings season, publishes a comprehensive 25- to 40-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.

In its latest earnings preview, looks at several popular stocks, including Google (GOOG), Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP), Intel (INTC), eBay (EBAY), and Microsoft (MSFT).

Here is just a tiny sample of what wrote about eBay:

eBay has beaten analyst EPS estimates seven of the past eight quarters, meeting the consensus once. Over that stretch, the stock has risen the next session six of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen each of the last four years.

Last quarter, the company earned $677 million, or 51 cents per share, versus $570 million, or 44 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings rose 14% to $829 million, or 63 cents, from $725 million, or 55 cents, a year ago. This topped analyst expectations for EPS of 62 cents.

Revenue jumped 14% to $3.75 billion, just below the $3.77 billion consensus. Organically, revenue rose 15%.

Looking at segments, the Marketplace business saw revenue rise 13% (13% excluding currency as well) to $1.96 billion.The Payments business saw revenue rise 18% (20% in constant currencies as well) to $1.55 billion. ...

Outside of earnings, eBay CEO John Donahoe has done a tremendous job since taking over the helm of transforming eBay and turning the company into an innovator at the cutting edge of e-commerce and payment technology. However, he's not sitting still, and there are several current initiatives the company is undertaking.

In the Marketplace business, we continue to see the company luring bigger retailers to its site to become an off-price outlet, as well as helping them in other ventures, like this one. Meanwhile, taking PayPal offline and continuing to develop the mobile wallet represents huge opportunities.

The virtual wallet and PayPal's offline push have the biggest potential, but a better search engine could also nicely spur growth for its Marketplace business. After all, not every seller categorizes the same items in the same way, and a search engine that is more intuitive that brings up more relevant items can help lead to more sales. ...

The full earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.

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