Previewing Earnings for Salesforce.com, Intuit, Hain Celestial & Others

Indie Research

Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.

During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 20- to 30-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.

Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.

In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks still set to report earnings this week, including Hain Celestial (HAIN), Intuit (INTU), Dell (DELL), Toll Brothers (TOL), Pandora Media (P), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Salesforce.com (CRM).

Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Intuit:

Intuit has topped analyst EPS estimates seven of the past eight quarters, meeting estimates once. Over that span, the stock has risen the next session six of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen three of the last four years.

Last quarter, the software maker said its fiscal third-quarter profit rose 7% to $734 million, or $2.42 per share, from $688 million, or $2.20 per share, a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, Intuit earned $2.51 a share compared with $2.33 a year ago. Revenue rose to $1.95 billion from $1.85 billion.

Analysts had expected a profit of $2.48 per share on revenue of $1.96 billion.

Intuit forecast a profit of 5-7 cents a share on revenue of $647-$662 million for the current quarter. Analysts were expecting a profit of 6 cents per share on $652.4 million in revenue.

The company raised its full-year guidance to $2.92-$2.97 a share from $2.91-$2.97 on revenue of $4.2-$4.22 billion. The previous forecast was $4.19-$4.29 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $2.93 per share and revenue of $4.22 billion. ...

Outside of earnings, we like Intuit's strong position in the economically insensitive tax software preparation business via Turbo Tax, although this has become more of a strong cash cow than a big growth driver. The bigger growth driver for the company is its more economically sensitive businesses tied to small business activity such as Quickbooks, Intuit Payroll, and other offerings.

The company is moving more towards a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, which should help spur growth moving forward. Mint.com, which the company acquired toward the end of 2009, has some intriguing longer-term potential.

More recently, Intuit announced it would acquire Demandforce to enter the online marketing space. The move should help it become a one-stop shop for small business, allowing it to meet their front and back office needs. Given its huge Quickbooks install base, it should have plenty of opportunity to cross-sell this new offering. ...

Just a few of the recent correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q2 were:

  • to be bullish on Green Mountain (GMCR) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bullish on Fusion-IO (FIO) ahead of earnings.
  • to be bearish on Lowe's (LOW) ahead of earnings.
  • A daily investment service that is committed to creating long-term wealth for its members, BullMarket.com's Recommended List of stocks is up 33.3% from 2008-2011 versus a -14.4% return for the S&P, a 47.7% outperformance, topping the benchmark each year since the start of the Great Recession. Subscribers receive actionable market commentary, access to 40+ stock ideas on the Recommended List, and real-time trade alerts. Plus, sign up for a free trial today to view Bull Market's in-depth Special Reports - including its annual High Yield and MLP reports - and its timely Earnings Previews, which are published every Friday during the heart of earnings season. Get a Risk-Free Trial to Bull Market Today! (Please note returns are unaudited.)

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