Price & Time: A Brief Reprieve

DailyFX

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

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Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/JPY continues to consolidate just under the 94.20 38% retracement of the decline seen from 2007 to 2011

- Focus is still to the upside with a move over this retracement required to prompt a move towards a Fibonacci extension related to last year’s decline in the 95.00 area

- Gann wheel support related to the 2011 low around 92.00 remains pivotal

- Weakness below this level would signal the start of a much deeper setback for the exchange rate

- Cyclical studies remain marginally negative for a few more days

Strategy: Remain long above 92.00. If that level breaks we like a stop and reverse.

GBP/USD:

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Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- Cable broke under the 50% retracement of the 2009 range andtouched its lowest level in two and a half years

- Support has since been found at the measured move of the January to early February decline in the 1.5130 area

- Focus is still lower, however, with a breach of 1.5130 now needed to trigger the next move towards a convergence of Fibonacci extensions just under 1.5000

- Some caution advised over the next couple of days as a minor monthly turn window is in effect

- A square root progression from the recent low around 1.5375 should hold if the downtrend is intact, too much strenght over this level and a Fib/Gann convergence around 1.5400 would turn picture more positive

Strategy: Stay short Cable, but the trailing stop should probably be tightened. Over 1.5375 would worry us.

EUR/AUD:

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Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- EUR/AUD has broken through several key Gann lines over the past few days including the 1x1 from the mid-November closing low

- Focus remains to the downside with a close under the 50% retracement of the year-to-date range around 1.2770 needed to prompt further weakness towards an important Fibonacci confluence at 1.2675

- Immediate resistance is seen at the aforementioned Gann line in the 1.2825 region

- However, only strength over a slew of minor retracements between 1.2875 and 1.2915 would signal the start of a more important turn higher

- A fairly reliable cyclical turn window in the cross is seen around the middle of the week

Strategy: We like the short side in the cross while under 1.2915.

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

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The jury is still out on the potential severity of the current decline in the Kiwi. Given the magnitude of the preceding advance in terms of both price and time we would expect more than just a few days of downside and a two big figure decline. Still that is only an expectation and price will ultimately need to prove our cyclical notion correct. As we mentioned earlier in the week the second square root progression from last week’s high is .8345 and weakness below this level is needed to signal that a more important down phase in the Kiwi is developing. We got a close below that level yesterday, but so far the action has been less than supportive. With other cyclical methods pointing to a couple days of strength here we assume the current advance is just some sort of relief recovery before another move lower.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @KKerrFX.

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