Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP

DailyFX

  • USD/JPY slams into Fibonacci resistance
  • S&P 500 still looks to be in a broader topping process
  • USD/CHF testing important Gann resistance

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

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PT_sep_6_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level since late July on Friday before encountering resistance just ahead of the 78.6% retracement of the July to August decline in the 100.30 area
  • While over the 50% retracement of the August to September advance in the 98.00 area our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • The 100.30 level is now a near-term upside pivot with strength above required to trigger the next leg higher
  • A minor cycle high is seen around the middle of next week
  • The 98.75 area is intermediate support, but only clear weakness below 98.00 turns the technical outlook to negative

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 98.00.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*98.00

98.75

99.65

*100.30

100.70

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

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PT_sep_6_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to its highest levels since mid-July on Friday before finding resistance at the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the .9445 area
  • While over the 2nd square root progression of the August low in the .9340 area our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • A close over .9445 is needed to prolong the advance and signal that a more important move higher is unfolding
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the latter half of next week
  • The 4th square root progression of the year’s low near .9400 should act as near-term support, but only weakness below .9340 will turn us negative on USD/CHF

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9340

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9340

0.9400

0.9440

*0.9445

0.9500

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

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PT_sep_6_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing on a closing basis at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area
  • While over 1350 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • The 1418 level is now an important near-term pivot, but over 1440 is really required to set off another important leg higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • Weakness below 1350 would undermine the immediate positive tone, but only weakness below 1280 would turn our outlook negative on the metal

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1350

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1318

*1350

1.0480

1418

*1440

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

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PT_sep_6_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP

The recovery we were looking for in the S&P 500 off important Gann support at 1627 has unfolded nicely. If our interpretation of the short-term cyclical picture is correct then the index should experience another day or two of strength before entering into another important turn window. Failure to gain traction over the 1677/92 resistance zone during this time will raise the possibility that a broader topping process is indeed in play. Weakness below 1627 at anytime should trigger a much more serious decline.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the SPX in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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