Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data

DailyFX

GBP/USD breaks a pivotal level, while AUD/USD & GOLD consolidate below key resistance levels.

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

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PT_GBP_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under steady pressure since failing late last week at the 8x1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high near 1.3400
  • While above the 1.3240 level our near-term trend bias has to remain higher in the rate
  • There is Gann resistance at 1.3320, but over 1.3400/15 is really required to confirm a more important move higher
  • The near-term cyclical picture remains very muddled, though today is a minor turn window
  • The 4th square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3240 is key support in the medium-term and only a close below this level will turn us negative on the rate

EUR/USD Strategy: A little confused by the cyclical picture so still square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3195

*1.3240

1.3285

1.3320

*1.3415

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

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PT_GBP_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD remains in consolidation mode below a long-term retracement level at .9215
  • While over .9035 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the Aussie
  • The .9215 area is immediate resistance, but a move through the 12th square root progression of the year’s high at .9295 is really needed to signal the start of a more powerful advance
  • A minor turn window is seen over the next couple of days
  • Weakness back under .9035 would undermine the burgeoning positive technical structure and turn us negative on the rate

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while the Aussie is over .9035.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*0.9035

0.9100

0.9155

0.9215

*0.9295

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

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PT_GBP_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has moved steadily higher over the past week since finding good support at the 4th square root prgoression of the July high
  • While below key Fibonacci symmetry near 1350, however, our near-term bias will remain lower in the metal
  • On the downside the 1280 area remains a critical and weakness below on a closing basis is needed to propm a more serious move lower
  • Near-term cycles studies suggest early next week is a turn window
  • A close over 1350 will turn the technical outlook much more positive

XAU/USD Strategy: Short against 1350, may go with a stop and reverse on a break.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1302

1336

*1350

1360

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

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PT_GBP_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch After All the Data

The 1x1 Gann line drawn from the year-to-date high has been a very important resistance over the past few months. During the important cyclical turn window in mid-June, for instance, the angle line led to an important high with price stalling almost to the exact pip. Last week the 1x1 line saw the uptrend in Cable stall out at after a brief foray above the line. Today, however, GBP/USD has finally managed to overcome the resistance of the Gann angle line and a close over the level looks today like a forgone conclusion. This obviously puts the exchange rate in a positive technical position, but until the 1.5750 2Q13 high is overcome it will be difficult to get too excited about the pair’s longer-term prospects.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Pound in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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