Price & Time: From One Cycle to Another

DailyFX

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

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Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/JPY came under further pressure at the start of the week before rebounding smartly over the past couple of days from the measured move of the mid-March decline in the 93.50 area

- While below the 95.50 1x1 Gann angle line from the year-to-date high our bias remains lower in the pair

-The 93.50 level now is a key near-term pivot with weakness below needed to setup a more aggressive decline

- Short-term time cycles remain mixed for a couple of days, but a bigger picture Pi turn window related to the 2011 low presents itself around the middle of next week

- Only clear strength over the 95.50 Gann level turns us positive on the exchange rate

Strategy: Took profit on half of our USD/JPY short position from 94.70 when 93.80 was given. The remaining position got stopped out at cost on the most recent rebound. Looking to sell the dollar at 95.30 over the next couple of days with a stop just over 95.70.

NZD/USD:

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Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- NZD/USD traded to its highest level in over a month on Wednesday before finding resistance at a retracement convergence in the .8390 to .8400 area

- Bias is higher in the exchange rate, but strength over .8400 now needed to prompt a more important push higher

- Near-term focused time cycle analysis looks negative for a few days, but a bigger turn window is eyed later next week

- A convergence of Gann levels related to the year-to-date range in the .8340 area is immediate support

- Weakness below there will turn us negative and open the way for a further decline towards a slew of Gann and Fibonacci supports just ahead of .8300

Strategy: Want to sell a break of .8340 if we see it. Stop will be tight at just over .8460. We will be looking to take off half ahead of .8300 if it goes our way.

EUR/SEK:

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PT_One_cycle_another_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: From One Cycle to Another

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- EUR/SEK has come under steady pressure over the past few days since failing at the start of the week from just above the 78.6% retracement of the late February to March decline

- Subsequent weakness below the 8.3700 50% retracement of the month-to-date range has shifted our bias to negative in the cross

- Focus now on the 78.6% retracement of the March range in the 8.2940 area, with weakness ideally on a closing basis needed to signal the start of the next decline

- Short-term focused time cycle analysis looks negative on the cross for a few more days

- The 8.3700 retracement level is now important resistance and only strength above this level improves the immediate negative tone in the cross

Strategy: Took profit on half of our long Euro/Stokkie position from 8.3200 when 8.4000 was paid. We got flat on the remaining position on the trade back through 8.3200.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

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We wrote yesterday about the importance of the start of the week for the euro from a time cycle perspective as it is related to several key turning points over the past few months. The uncertainty we had on the direction of the exchange rate looks to have resolved itself lower with Wednesday’s downside break of the two-day range. Our next turn window of importance in EUR/USD looks to be late next week/start of the week of April 8th as this timeframe will mark 45-50 trading days since the year-to-date high. A timeframe often referred to as a “Gann death cycle” given the propensity of strong trends to reverse around this geometric frequency. Interestingly this same turn window coincides with other key cycle points in Cable and USD/JPY suggesting early April will be important for the currency markets as a whole. More as this develops.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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