The impact of China’s urea prices China’s urea prices can have a significant impact on global fertilizer prices. Although the production cost of urea is on the higher end, as…

On October 1, 2013, the US government shut down. Look for increased volatility and delayed revenues in medical device stocks and exchange-traded funds.

The significance of retail urea prices Analysts use retail urea prices to illustrate the supply and demand dynamics between farmers and retailers. When retail prices are rising, they can point…

KB Home and Lennar gave us a preview of homebuilder earnings Last week, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) reported third quarter earnings. They’re on a November fiscal year, so…

Next week is all about the shutdown and the jobs report On Tuesday, we’ll see if the government continues to operate or not. If we don’t get a deal, we…

The ten-year bond is the basis for all mortgage pricing Long-term interest rates are priced off the benchmark long-term bond, which is the ten-year Treasury. These days, the ten-year bond reacts…

Mortgage rates are one of the prime drivers for homebuilders Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE)…

The spread between WTI and Brent closed through most of 2013, but it has experienced some volatility in recent months, given events in Libya and Syria.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a proprietary index from the National Association of Realtors based on contract signings, fell 1.5%, to 107.7 in August from 109.4 in July.

Natural gas inventories increased more than expected, but markets largely shrugged this rise off as they looked ahead to higher demand from the coming winter months.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index creeps up to –28.1 for the week ending September 22. It appears that higher interest rates are beginning to flow through to the real economy.

Why the oil markets are shifting their focus away from Syria and towards the looming specter of a US government shutdown.

What inventory levels tell us Inventory levels reflect current industry supply and demand balance and safety stock. When inventory levels rise, they’re often a negative sign, as the supply of…

Historically, device manufacturers had been catering to physicians. With rising medical costs, the decisions are slowly shifting to consumers, payers, and medical systems.

Natural gas rigs remain down since the beginning of the year, with no major catalyst for them to increase in the medium term.

What inventory levels tell us Inventory levels reflect current industry supply and demand balance and safety stock. When inventory levels rise, they’re often a negative sign, as the supply of…

Last week’s rain had curtailed fieldwork for some farmers but had aided some late-developing summer crops by alleviating drought pressure.

The importance of currency in the globally traded fertilizer market As potash and phosphate are two globally traded commodities, more so than nitrogenous fertilizers, currency fluctuation can have a significant…...

Brinker International recently rose dividends by 20% In August, Brinker International Inc. (EAT), the company that owns Chili’s Grill and Bar, had increased its dividend by a large amount of…

Panamax stabilizing, Handymax and Supramax rising For the first half of 2013, vessels prices for all three major classes of dry bulk ships, Panamax, Supramax, and Capesize, have been rising.…

The importance of the fertilizer-to-corn price ratio For farmers, the relative price of fertilizers to crop price is an important factor that influences buying decisions because it affects profits. When…...

Darden’s target market: The middle class and mid price point Darden’s facing a tough situation. Because its customers have largely been the middle class, Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) has performed…

Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, ...

The impact of crop prices on the fertilizer industry Crop price can have a significant impact on fertilizer companies’ earnings and share prices. When crop prices are high, farmers feel…

Oil rigs have slid since mid-year, but that may not reflect producer sentiment. Increasing efficiencies have allowed more oil production with fewer rigs.

Darden’s dividends and earnings Another stock that many investors might have been holding or found attractive is Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI). The company recently raised its quarterly dividend from $0.50…...

Management is optimistic about the future Brinker International Inc. (EAT)’s management is quite optimistic about the company’s future outlook. At its 2013 fiscal year earnings call, management spoke of ...

Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA…

Can Yum sustain its momentum? Certain factors, such as the Avian flu and poorly managed supply chain system in China, had negatively affected Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM)’s earnings lately. But…

The ten-year bond rallied throughout the week as the market digested the implications of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) meeting.

A group of medical device manufacturers was recently awarded a slew of government contracts for devices, equipment, and supplies.

Is the Mexican market becoming bullish? Below are additional macroeconomic indicators released in September that point towards a recovery in the Mexican economy (EWW). The Mexican market may be changing ...

Yum! Brands’ dividend yield lower than McDonald’s Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) currently trades at ~$72.28. Recently, the company raised its quarterly dividend from $0.34 to $0.37 a share. Like McDonald’s…

Turnaround signals Earlier this month, several macro indicators started giving faint signals of turnaround for Mexico (EWW). While quarterly GDP was down, PMI started pointing towards a reversal in the…...

McDonald’s will likely be able to maintain its dividend growth So can McDonald’s keep its dividend growth? Most likely, yes. Over the past few years, McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) has been…

Japan’s non-residential investment The below graph reflects changes in non-residential investment in Japan. Unlike the housing sector, as noted in the prior graph in this series, non-residential investment ...

Commodity prices and shipping rates As we discussed in another series, Must-know: Commodity prices and dry bulk shipping stocks, commodity prices can have a significant impact on iron ore demand and…

The relationship between commodity and shipping rates Commodity prices generally move together with shipping rates. When prices for materials such as steel, iron ore, coal, oil, and copper rise, they can ...

Residential investments in Japan The below graph reflects the ongoing decline in the rate at which residential investments are being made in Japan. As with other forms of fixed investment…

The peso and foreign exchange Going forward, there are two main forces affecting the Mexican peso’s foreign exchange. US monetary policy The pace of Mexican reforms The US monetary policy…

Iron ore inventory Iron ore inventory is one of several measures that affect iron ore imports and shipping rates. The iron ore inventory at Chinese ports reflects the safety net…

Capital formation in Japan The below graph reflect the changes in capital formation in Japan. As with fixed capital formation in the prior graph, gross capital formation has been on…

Mexico (EWW) is currently one of the safest plays in emerging markets, naturally hedged given its close relationship with the United States.

McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) provides a ~3% dividend return With the current share price of McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) trading at $97.00 and the company paying out dividends of $0.77 a share…

Dividends are great because they provide stable income for investors, which makes them generally less volatile than the alternative class.

The significance of Brazil’s iron ore export As home to one of the largest mining companies, Vale S.A., and the second largest iron ore exporting country with ~25% market share…

Japan’s fixed capital formation The below graph reflects the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation in Japan. Since Japan’s bubble economy burst in 1990, investments have been in a long-term…

Annual capacity growth remains positively in a downtrend From September 13 to 20, year-over-year growth in dry bulk capacity, measured in deadweight tonnage (DWT, the weight a ship can safely…