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R.I.P. bull market?

It’s a famous Wall Street tale.

Financial icon Joe Kennedy, Senior reportedly said he realized before the great market crash of 1929 that it was time to sell because a shoeshine boy was giving stock tips. Kennedy noted that when market speculation gets to that level, the bubble must be about to burst.

Now, Yahoo Finance Editor in Chief Andy Serwer believes we have reached that “shoeshine boy” moment in our current more than six-year long bull market.

“I had a terrifying moment this week when I was at the dentist and it didn’t have to do with my teeth at all,” he says. “I was walking out of the building and there was a doorman-- and he was talking about tech stocks, what he was buying and what he was selling.”

Serwer says the frightening part was that it reminded him of another time--  right before the dot-com bubble burst.

“I haven’t seen that kind of a conversation since 1999,” he explains. “Where it becomes cocktail fodder.”

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Serwer adds this anecdotal evidence is not limited to folks of a certain age, either.

“One of our producers was out with some hipsters in Brooklyn, and these people were all talking about biotech stocks,” he says. “When you get that kind of chatter at that kind of level, it just makes me nervous.”

But Yahoo Senior Columnist Michael Santoli isn’t so sure we’re witnessing a repeat of previous overheated market scenarios, because he sees a disconnect between talk and action this time around.

“I’m not worried because of where their money is going,” he argues. “Eight out of nine weeks money has come out of U.S. stock funds. In general, people are not in with both feet.”

Still, Santoli feels it’s important to continue to watch for signs of a downturn, especially considering the length of this bull run.

“It is partly a function of time and not just the level of the market,” he points out. “We’ve been going up for six years and you do pull people in along the way.”

Serwer is also noticing another troubling sign.

“When the stock market becomes part of popular culture, watch out,” he says. “And we’re seeing that on the edges. HBO (TWX) has Silicon Valley and there are new movies out about this stuff.”

However, Santoli points out that so far, the Wall Street pop culture influence hasn’t had an impact.

“With The Wolf of Wall Street (VIAB), people said, ‘uh oh’ we have this big-budget movie about Wall Street,” he notes. “Alibaba’s (BABA) IPO was another one that seemed like a perfect top opportunity, and it didn’t quite work out that way.”

Yahoo Finance’s Jen Rogers adds a lot of people thought the bulls were going to be finished months ago.

“There was a lot of froth talk last fall,” she explains. “And that never came to fruition.”

Still, Serwer believes there’s a cumulative effect here.

“It always kind of builds,” he says. “And at some point we’re going to see the end of it.”

So could Friday’s stock market (^GSPC) sell-off be, like Fred Sanford of the old NBC (CMCSA) TV comedy, Sanford and Son would say, “The Big One” that turns bulls into bears?

“Maybe it’s the beginning,” Serwer wonders. “You never know.”

Note:  Yahoo, parent of Yahoo Finance, owns about a 15% stake in Alibaba which it plans to spin off.



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